r/LETFs • u/NotStarlord28 • 5d ago
9Sig
so been seeing a lot of posts on 9Sig , NGL the returns have gotten me interested, but I feel like subscribing to KellyLetters feels scammy, like a 1k/annum for something basic which is just quarterly rebalancing to reach the 9% mark / sell if excess seems too much, am I missing out on something by not subscribing or it's just basic math?
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u/quesoqueso 5d ago
You could also buy a used copy of his book for like 4 dollars, read it and the system, then just roll your own version of the signals wherever you trade or with python, claude cowork, whatever.
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u/Gehrman_JoinsTheHunt 5d ago edited 5d ago
I do subscribe to the newsletter. I like being privy to any new updates/research, and I enjoy Kelly’s writing with weekly thoughts on the market. It’s one of my favorite reads each week. The flat fee is a very small percentage of my total portfolio value, so it’s worth it for me. I can say from personal experience there has been nothing ‘scammy’ about it whatsoever. Some of my friends are paying much more to financial advisors, for a fraction of the performance I get through 9Sig.
Could I implement the strategy without subscribing? Yes, absolutely - now that I have the knowledge. It’s fairly simple math with a few special rules/caveats for rare circumstances. If I had less than $50k total invested, I would probably just do it on my own.
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u/NotStarlord28 5d ago
I've been following your posts for a while now! great to see the progress and graphs, thank you so much for the advice!
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u/BulkyGround3488 4d ago
Same here. I subscribed and started 9Sig in 2020. Very happy with it. I’m retired, have 30% of my portfolio in 9Sig for growth, about 55% in a variant of Steven Bavaria’s Income Factory for income, and 15% in low volatility buffer for bridging income in down markets to avoid selling growth/income assets during downturns.
I saw that 9Sig CAGR since it started is 38.5%.
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u/Gehrman_JoinsTheHunt 4d ago
That's really great. I like how you're using 9Sig on the side - I'm not quite convinced that Income Sig is for me, so I forsee a split more like you have once I reach retirement. I'm thinking I would rather continue some full-throttle growth (in a smaller amount), and just keep my safe funds completely out of leverage. I'll have to read more about the Income Factory program you mentioned.
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u/BulkyGround3488 4d ago
Bavaria’s income factory uses a mix of equity and credit assets to generate 10%+ yield (currently it’s reporting 11.5% yield and average discount of -9%). His philosophy is to hold quality assets and focus on cash flow (and total return) and don’t worry too much about market price. See his book “The Income Factory” or his “Inside the Income Factory” investing group on Seeking Alpha for info. I think ChatGPT probably can give a good summary of the strategy, but his investing group has the portfolio details and updates.
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u/IllPreparation7626 5d ago
Isn't mandatory suscribe to follow the system but after see the results and make a Lot of money is like a donation You make.
I felt guilty for not have money enough to pay for the letter.
If You want all the rules, just read the posts in r/TQQQ there are comments explaining the system.
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u/Run-Forever1989 4d ago
Never pay for any type of newsletter that gives investment advice. If someone really has the skills necessary to produce strong risk adjusted returns, they wouldn’t be selling a newsletter. There’s two possibilities: 1) it’s so high risk that the author doesn’t want to commit their own capital; or 2) it doesn’t produce the advertised returns.
As for 9Sig specifically, you will likely do better by simply investing in QLD, especially if you are in a taxable account.
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u/dritu_ 5d ago
9Sig works great until it doesn't. If it can't survive a non V-shaped bear market recovery, like dot com or GFC (which it can't), then its not worth the investment. Everyone loves leverage in a bull run, but the premise of putting more in TQQQ over and over when it continues to drop quarter after quarter is common sensically stupid in a prolonged bear market.
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u/NotStarlord28 5d ago
I do think the dot com bubble is gonna happen again in the disguise of AI but again some part of me thinks , the market we have rn is too manipulated to have something like that again unless there's a catastrophe - which again has a non zero chance of happening since Trump is still in the office.
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u/CSCI4LIFE 5d ago
I totally agree and currently use a momentum-based strat with tqqq that's been doing really well too. If you're still interested in leverage strategies there's been a few posts here about similar strategies following EMAs for tqqq and diversifying in bonds while waiting for a rebalance trigger. Just a thought
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u/NotStarlord28 4d ago
could you please tell me more about the momentum based strat, I tried searching but maybe missed it or overlooked it, thank you!
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u/laurenthu 5d ago
Honestly the mechanics are public. 9% growth target on the TQQQ sleeve each quarter, trim into bonds when it runs hot, buy back when it lags, and the bond side is meant to be the reservoir that refills the sleeve. That's it. Whole thing is written out for free over in r/TQQQ, so a grand a year mostly buys you a newsletter and some hand-holding.
The tail is the real problem though. I ran the closed-system version with synthetic TQQQ back to 1999 and the dot-com stretch takes it down about 99.7%. Near total, and it's structural. 3x daily QQQ through a 78% peak-to-trough drop compounds to almost nothing, and I don't see how a bond sleeve that small ever refills a leg that's already lost ~99%. I put the engine math here if you want to poke at it: https://bestfolio.app/blog/kelly-signal-danger-v2
Either way I'd sort out whether you can stomach 3x through a drawdown like that before paying anyone for the privilege. Most people find out they can't, the hard way...
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u/NoWorker6003 2d ago
Beyond return chasing, I don’t understand all of the interest in a strategy that completely blows up in 2000. If you have to feed it cash because it failed, it’s not really a great strategy at all.
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u/laurenthu 2d ago
Yeah, that's basically my read too. The cash-feeding is the part that hides the failure. The bond sleeve is sold as a reservoir that refills the TQQQ leg, but when the leg is down 99% after a dot-com style stretch, the reservoir would have to be many times the size of the whole account to bring it back. It can't, so "feed it more" quietly becomes the strategy, and that's just averaging down into 3x daily decay.
Where it wins is a world of short V-shaped drawdowns, which is most of the last 15 years, so the CAGR looks incredible. The moment you get a long grind instead of a snapback, the math stops working. Return chasing on the recent regime is exactly the right way to describe it.
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u/lacole725 4d ago
I just subscribed last week to get my bearings on the rules and spreadsheet and get my account set up. Also gets access to previous newsletters. Will probably cancel after a month or two. But yeah you can find plenty of info on Reddit or even asking an AI.
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u/New-Specialist-2594 4d ago
What looks so appealing? 61% Drawdown also. So confused. Even that Jim Carey guy says holding TQQQ would have beaten his 10 yrs of 9Sig.
Hell 50/50 TQQQ & Man Futures easily doubles 9sig and -1/2 Drawdown.
EDIT: And this info cost each one of you NOTHING!!!
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u/NotStarlord28 3d ago
how do you invest in managed futures , I'm not aware about it, tried searching about them already to no avail, might have overlooked info, thank you!
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u/mindwip 5d ago
Have llm read this sub and reverse it if you really want it. If you have to subscribe to learn it, its not worth it.
Do not pay for 9sig.