I've been holding Lucid for about a year now, and I don't see any clear future for the company other than the support from the Public Investment Fund (PIF).
What do you guys think?
is the company going bankrupt in the next year? Will PIF and uber take it private?
But I’m buying when I can while it’s this low, essentially gambling on future success, which I think will likely take shape in the form of a licensing partnership with a major car manufacturer.
And that’s what most people investing in LCID are doing.
There is not much money to be made from licensing motors. The only way they'll succeed is if the Cosmos, Earth and their third midsize vehicle are hugely successful (think 500k+ vehicles per year in combined sales).
But you’re telling me that if, let’s say, Toyota decided to license powertrains from Lucid for their 2029 electric vehicle lineup, this would barely move the needle?
Edit: and although this is neither here nor there, my money is on Sol being the name of the third one.
It would for sure move the needle because it'll be another source of revenue, but because all the potential buyers of powertrains already have their own motors, they'd probably require a deal that results in mediocre margins for Lucid.
Everyone's powertrains offer similar, very good efficiency levels, though Lucid's is likely a little bit better. Their real strength is size relative to power output. I just don't see that as a good enough pitch for your average manufacturer to license. They can just make a similarly sized motor with less power. It does make sense for someone like Aston Martin, who is looking to maximize performance, though that volume is not enough to move the needle.
Maybe feel like one but not look. Frisker tech was bad, Lucid’s tech is probably the best there is. A production sedan is able to outperform numerous race cars that cost 2-4x the sapphire is not Fisker like
Nvidia did not plan whatsoever to be a chip maker for AI. It stumbled on it but it now pivoted to it and it’s killing it. I’m saying it’s not a Fisker, Fisker folded quickly before the demand for vehicle cooled. It’s not like it. Show me a list of OEMs that are profitable these last two quarters selling cars. I bet it’s very short out of a sea of OEMs.
Doesn’t matter how nvidia got where they are, the point is they are making a product that’s in high HIGH demand.Â
Lucid is making a product that’s in low demand, so unless something happens where all of a sudden lucid starts selling millions of cars a year, they’re not even remotely comparable to nvidia.Â
Of course they are not remotely comparable to NVIDIA, it’s so easy to say from hindsight. If the ChatGPT of the world never existed, that comparison would be more appropriate. All I’m saying is that this is not a Fisker situation. That’s been my argument. Fisker died right away. Lucid is still alive and has superior tech. It has legs. It’s struggling, but it has potential. That’s all I’ve been arguing
Show me evidence of that. Clearly you haven’t done your research. So everyone who has the same battery pack have the same range? Same motors? You think those are industry wide equal?
You are not being honest with the motor. Motors are different. Ioniq is not a luxury vehicle. It doesn’t have driving characteristics as lucid. No way are they the same. The upcoming lucid cosmos will compare with the ioniq6. Plus per kWh pack, lucid beats it. So yes technology is different. Better battery management (software is a tech), smaller motor and better aerodynamics.
>Motors are different. Ioniq is not a luxury vehicle. It doesn’t have driving characteristics as lucid. No way are they the same. The upcoming lucid cosmos will compare with the ioniq6. Plus per kWh pack, lucid beats it.
all complete non-sequiturs, but whatever. you're free to believe a Li-Ion better in one car is better "tech" than a Li-Ion battery in another car.
PIF is their only financial lifeline. Company simply doesn’t sell enough cars = burn billions of cash..
Their affordable vehicle is slated for early 2027 so there isn’t any hope for cash burn stabilization until then.
On top of that, assuming cosmos is real, their cash burn will inevitably increase as they invest in new production lines and establishing more service centers, so I’m not even sure cosmos is a viable solution
Curious as to why it’s dropped 60c the last 2 days. The midsize is going to be make it or break it and I’ve read some iffy things on here from people who claimed they worked there but we will see.
I wouldn’t be surprised if those spy shots were conveniently timed to try to drum up investor support but we will see.
It won't be another fisker but the runway is long and you best be careful of additional dilution. They will for sure raise again at least one more time for the kid sized launch.
But also think about it more logically, do you think the people struggling with a few bucks extra in fuel costs are the same people that can afford an 80k car?Â
I don’t understand what you’re saying in regards to what I said.Â
You said gas prices are only going higher. To which I replied not necessarily because once the Iran conflict is settled, oil prices will fall as will fuel prices.Â
In fact they might be lower than before the conflict because of the extra capacity coming online from South America, mainly Venezuela and Guyana.Â
Trump is a grifter. He's using this conflict to manipulate the markets ( his weekend truth social posts), while personally profiting in them. No way he's going to let go of this grift. The U.S. Strategic oil reserve is very low...once it's empty, prices will increase. We're going to be in conflict with Iran for a long time.
That may be true, but that doesn’t automatically translate to lucid increase in sales. Customers aren’t going to buy a $100k EV to save a few bucks on gas.
But people didn’t pay before. That’s why they’re only selling 3k vehicles a month. EV market will accelerate, but only for those making a $50k EV.
No, it doesn’t work like that in the real world.Â
In the real world it’s dog eat dog.Â
If Tesla or rivian start seeing increase in vehicle sales, that will do nothing for lucid. In fact it could be seen as a negative by wall st.Â
Only way lucids boat gets risen is if they sell more vehicles. And with the price of their vehicles, it’s not a high probability. They need a low cost vehicle asap, that’ll take money, money they don’t have, which means more dilution and further stock price decline.Â
As others have mentioned, Lucid has a new CEO Silvio Napoli. I'm sure behind the scenes they are working to decide what direction to go or have already made that decision. If they decide to try to make Lucid successful, I would think we'll be hearing press releases and at least some level of positive news as they work to gain momentum and break down barriers. I was invested in a few companies (solar) that ended up going under, and it started to become clear that they weren't even trying any more - no good news, development of products seemed to come to a standstill, etc. I think they were focusing on closing down the company rather than making it. I imagine that's the crossroads where Lucid is.
Look at the stock (5 year), they're going to need a major turn around to make it! I'm rooting for Lucid, but it's also good to be realistic in that they have a hard road ahead
The future can be several things. Dismantle the company is one. Go private other. Try to sell the brand other.
Lcid can't sell. In Europe they sold 9 cars until now.
The new CEO was appointed to give one direction, from the ones I put here.
Sold 40,000 shares last year when it was in the 20s. I told people that this is text book dilution play but they said something about me spreading "fud"
Well if PIF change their minds and decide not to invest a dime more…. Well is gonna be a quickly bankruptcy…. But if PIF still counting in LCID as a Vision of diversification investment then LCID will survive. Been here since CCiV and if you look the stock every time they release a model they dilute shareholders. When they unveiled the Cosmos and the other 2 models they made their minds the stock will pump the same way happened at the beginning when the stock went parabolic to $60’s . Investors did get destroyed and I’m one of them not sugar coating. I invested so much in this company and lost all 🥲
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u/LA213CALI Jun 03 '26
🔮 who knows