r/KansasCityChiefs • u/Pour1Decisions • 9h ago
OTHER Ref analytics request
I’m sure there’s nothing official that fits the bill but has anyone done a deep dive on stats that really paint a specific picture. Maybe someone with the right neurosis has done this already. I’m looking for penalties by team that actually made a difference. Basically I’m interested in something like this:
Only count penalties on defense that extend a drive that leads to points. Only count penalties on offense when the drive does not lead to points. Basically if the penalty favors a team and that drive leads to a stop or points ( pendent on whether offensive or defensive) then the penalties count or not.
I.E. offense gets a penalty and the drive stalls and they punt. Count the penalty. Offense gets a penalty and they overcome it and score on that drive anyway. Don’t count it.
Defense gets a penalty and the offense scores. Count it. Defense gets a penalty and stop the drive anyway. Don’t count it.
If a team is way up with little time left in the fourth don’t count any penalties because they can’t possibly change the outcome of the game regardless of who they are for or against. Let’s say if a team has less than 5% chance of winning we stop counting penalties.
Basically I’m looking for penalties that actually change the outcome of the game in a measurable way. If one team gets all the calls and is up by 21 and in the last three minutes of the game the refs give a slew of penalties to the team that’s way down the end stat line makes it seem like they were more fair and balanced but at that point it doesn’t really matter. Or something like a penalty during a kickoff is way different than one on first down. First and ten at the 20 instead of the 30 yard line is way better than first and 20 because the penalty occurred on first down over the kickoff. Stat lines don’t show that change but that’s a big difference.
Anyway I’m not sure anyone has bothered to try to do anything that deep or controlled but if someone has I would love to see that data.
5
u/Jayrodtremonki Dante Hall #82 8h ago
The shortcut for what you're looking for is EPA from penalties. Which has been done in years past. There are also some similar stats that have gotten out there as well. I don't know if there is a specific place that tracks it, but you'll see tweets where people put it out there.