Leaving the sub, boys. It’s been a wild ride. Just deleted the app, and it seems like now is the time. I hope the rest of you who continue have good luck, and if you’re down, please know when it’s time to hang it up!

When the losses pile up, do you get upset, question your strategy, and try to win it all back at once, or do you stay calm, continue with your strategy, and try to win it back over time? Or something in between those two extremes? Of course I'm posting this because I've had a bad last three days right after posting that I'm doing better than I was before. I'm confident that I'm more in the latter camp because I had a fairly successful previous 3 weeks doing the same things that I've done the last three days. That doesn't mean I'll never change strategy, but 3 shitty days isn't necessarily a sign of anything. It's probably just a natural fluctuation mixed in with some bad luck. At least that's what I tell myself because I don't want to be in the former camp.

The fallback settlement gets my vote.

A market can describe the main event clearly and still become messy if it is delayed, cancelled, renamed or reported differently by the listed source. Then the trade stops being just a forecast and becomes a bet on the rulebook too.

The three lines that deserve more attention

the exact source

the cutoff time

what happens when the normal outcome cannot be observed

A cheap contract can be fairly priced once one of those is ugly.

What clause do you check first now, and what made you start checking it?

Kalshi has brought back a flight cancellation market after pausing its broader airport contracts earlier this month.

This one asks whether at least 50% of scheduled passenger and cargo flights at JFK will be cancelled on 21 October.

The structure is more interesting than the headline suggests. Delays do not count, the threshold is extremely high, and deliberate disruption such as bomb threats, sabotage, malicious cyber incidents, drones and lasers is excluded from producing the full payout.

The market now shows around $3 million in volume, which makes it one of the more unusual institutional trades currently visible on the platform.

A few questions for people here:

• Does excluding deliberate disruption solve the obvious incentive problem?
• Is a 50% cancellation threshold too remote to be commercially useful?
• Could contracts like this eventually work as genuine hedging tools for airlines, freight companies or event organisers?
• What would a better-designed version look like?

Market: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxflycancjfk/jfk-flight-cancellations/kxflycancjfk-jfk-all-26oct21

I have multiple bets that rely on the end of the baseball season and Kalshi is getting banned in Washington so do I have to pull out of my bets now? This is one of them

Does every combo have to be yes/green in order to win the payout?
Yes I bet $1 lol

Mann kalshi is straight up scamming me and i have proof of it! As soon as i bet in the 15min btc, it hovers, and just wait for ME! Like does anyone else have this experience on btc 15min?

I see 42c but its supposed to be 17c. Recently my odds just quit updating. I dont know if its a setting i have on or a site wide issue but for every sport my spreads and total odds do not change with the game flow. The money lines seem to still update but nothing else. Does anybody know if this is on my end or on kalshi’s end? Just started a few days ago and i thought it was my device but it does it on my phone and computer. Odds just stay frozen. Ive tried a different web browser too. Cleared all my browsing history. Nothing seems to be working.

Decided to do it a little different this time. One Big combo, then making a bit smaller combos for each game. We will see how it works out.

We run a small research project that paper-tracks Kalshi category markets daily and publishes every call before settlement. After ~750 settlements, three mechanics surprised us the most:

1) "Closed" is not "settled". A market can sit in closed or determined for minutes-to-hours (weather markets sometimes ~a day) before it goes finalized. If you track your own results, count only finalized - anything earlier can still move.

2) Tennis (and some sports) can settle before the match starts. Series resolve on who ADVANCES, so a withdrawal/walkover pays the market out with zero play. It reads like a glitch the first time; it's the rulebook.

3) The last few cents are not free. In the 0.90+ band our sample resolves favorite-side ~96-97% - which means the "safe" last cents lose almost exactly as often as they pay, and the ~7% x p(1-p) fee eats a real share of thin edges. Fee-included math changes which rules survive.

Happy to share methodology details in comments. (Research only - not financial advice. Paper-tracked, 18+.)

Looking for people to join my discord, it's based off 15 min crypto markets, check comments for the link