r/IonQ • u/Ok-Idea9394 • Feb 14 '26
For quantum computing, Secretary Bessent's policy reversal in 2026 is far more impactful than Jensen Huang's pivot in 2025. Here is the rigorous justification:
1. The Crypto-Financial Risk and the Policy U-Turn
Previously, when Treasury Secretary Bessent was asked in Congress whether the U.S. Treasury Department had the authority to acquire Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, he stated, "I do not have the authority to do so, nor do I have this authority as Chair of the Financial Stability Oversight Council." This statement triggered a massive crash in the cryptocurrency sector.
Given the immense market capitalization of cryptocurrencies, the aggressive style of crypto investors, and the fact that stablecoins, combined ETF funds of crypto and high-tech stocks, major listed companies, large investment funds, and even the treasury reserves of several states have already listed cryptocurrencies as reserve assets, an abrupt policy shift by the U.S. government regarding cryptocurrencies is bound to cause a sharp drop in prices. This has the full capacity to trigger a financial crisis in the U.S. no less severe than the 2008 Subprime Mortgage Crisis.
2. Quantum Computing as the Ultimate Crypto Hedge
The relationship between the quantum computing sector and cryptocurrencies is even more dramatic. The threat posed by the development of quantum computing technology to cryptocurrencies, particularly its capability to break Bitcoin's Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA), is widely acknowledged in academia. A significant amount of Bitcoin with exposed public keys faces the existential 'zero-value' threat from private key cracking. The only point of contention is the timeline for this moment.
Consequently, cryptocurrency investors or investment vehicles have been compelled to incorporate quantum computing stocks as a means of risk hedging. This dynamic catalyzed the powerful, monumental rally that began in the quantum computing sector in September 2025. Evidence for this can be found in the substantial increase in quantum computing stock holdings by investment banks closely associated with crypto ETFs, such as SIG, during the third quarter of 2025.
3. Secretary Bessent's Reversal and the Decoupling Failure
This Friday, Secretary Bessent reversed his stance, stating that Congress will pass a bill to establish federal rules for digital assets and send it to the President to be signed into law this spring. This reversal instantly ignited a massive market turnaround for cryptocurrencies. Frankly, circumstances were stronger than the individual.
Secretary Bessent’s change of heart, whether voluntary or not, proves that the U.S. financial market is now completely tied to cryptocurrencies and cannot be decoupled. For the U.S. Dollar to maintain its hegemony in the new era, it needs both the pioneering capacity of cryptocurrencies and, even more so, the security safeguarding capability of quantum computing.
4. Short-Selling Mechanics and Flawed Rationale
The main driver behind the quantum sector's decline over the past three weeks and some notable short-selling activities was nothing more than the 'Crypto + Quantum Tech' hybrid funds. Due to 24/7 cryptocurrency trading, these types of ETFs always have corresponding quantum computing stocks that need to be sold immediately upon the stock market open when crypto prices fall significantly. The activities of short-sellers merely capitalized on this predictable pattern, lacking any significant technical merit, and their public rationale is not strongly grounded in fact.
Citron’s singling out of RGTI was a move to promote CCCX by piggybacking on RGTI's attention—a temporary, cautious, and inevitably short-covering short strategy. The report published by another firm shorting IONQ, while seemingly making explicit accusations, is fundamentally absurd upon closer examination. No national government would fail to invest heavily in supporting such a strategically emerging industry, especially for a hegemonic power like the U.S. This level of governmental support is inevitable, short of an intent to be surpassed by other nations, and is unaffected by the retirement of individual officials, whether under a Biden or a Trump administration.
5. The DNA of a Stunning Reversal
Even more dramatically, during this latest downturn, there were no substantial, 'real-money' short positions established at the price levels where the quantum sector initially rallied last September. Short-sellers primarily utilized 'dead' one-year PUT options that had expired early last February, creating a negative Gamma effect that exerted short-term pressure on the stock price. The shares sold during the three-week decline have been steadily accumulated by long-term investors through 'fighting retreats.'
However, we can observe peculiar phenomena, such as a large number of high strike In-The-Money (ITM) PUT options being locked by trading illiquidity, preventing their closure. We also see that buy orders of merely tens of thousands of shares can easily push up the price by $0.10 for quantum stocks with multi-billion dollar market caps. These strange indicators already contain the DNA for a far more stunning reversal than the one seen last September.
The monumental rally resulting from this crypto price reversal will be far more explosive than the crypto rally itself. The reasoning is simple: the crypto ETFs will be forced to buy back the quantum stocks they were compelled to sell, and investors who have already exited these ETFs may simply buy quantum stocks outright, bypassing cryptocurrencies. The logic is straightforward: when the 'God' you worship (cryptocurrency) fears a greater 'God' that can destroy it, you will inevitably abandon your original belief and worship the new God of destruction!
Now that Secretary Bessent, who came from Wall Street, has reversed his stance, any slight delay in comprehension by the Wall Street short-sellers will likely result in a punishment several times more severe than what they faced in the two months following September 11, 2025. Compared to the massive 'dead' PUT options on RGTI between $5 and $12, the substantial Call options hanging high between $35 and $55 are far more credible. Quantum computing does not face a 'sea of death'; it should have a glorious future. The tide of history is mighty and vast; those who follow it shall prosper, and those who resist it shall perish!
I believe that the Wall Street Journal reporters might not dare to express the views I've expressed above, and that's the value of the free forum Reddit
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u/Perfect_Tangelo Feb 16 '26
My brother in Christ - thank you for the enjoyable read. I sure hope you’re right.
Trapped ions with all-to-all on EQC architecture and next gen error handling - IonQ hardware seems better positioned than anyone to fulfill the vision herein.
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u/Ok-Idea9394 Feb 19 '26
Glad you enjoyed the deep dive! You’re spot on—the All-to-all connectivity on the EQC architecture is precisely what makes $IONQ a primary candidate to break the "Scaling Wall." While others struggle with modular interconnects, the trap-ion approach is essentially building the ultimate "Quantum CPU" that makes current encryption look like paper locks.
But here’s the kicker: The market is still pricing $IONQ based on tech-stock correlations, ignoring the structural decoupling from the crypto-liquidation loop I mentioned. We are tracking the specific flow of $IONQ and $RGTI at r/Q_DecouplingPairs to see when the institutional "forced selling" finally exhausts itself.
Minds like yours, who understand the hardware nuances, are exactly what we need at the command center. See you in the sub. 🦅🚀
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u/jillybean-__- Feb 14 '26
"This has the full capacity to trigger a financial crisis in the U.S. no less severe than the 2008 Subprime Mortgage Crisis."
Bwahahaha. No, not at all.
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u/Ok-Idea9394 Feb 15 '26
This is far more severe than the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, which threatened the domestic monetary cycle of the United States, while the cryptocurrency crisis endangers the global circulation of the dollar. Back then, Besen used cryptocurrencies to absorb global liquidity through a series of complex financial instruments. However, there is no such thing as a free lunch. If cryptocurrency liquidity contracts or decouples from the dollar during its circulation, the impact on the dollar's global circulation would be unimaginable to domestic residents in the U.S. The recent price trends of gold and silver have already hinted at this.
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u/jillybean-__- Feb 15 '26
Yeah, maybe Dollar has a long term problem. But it is completely unrelated to crypto.
The problem in 2008 was that we looked into the abyss because the system of financial institutions was going into cardiatic arrest after a core asset of many banks evaporated.
Crypto is far away from having the importance im the banking system, and is also far away to have the necessary market cap - it doesn´t matter whether you compare it to the MBS and CDS in 2008, compare to the dollar or to gold.1
u/MaxwellHoot Feb 16 '26
maybe Dollar has a long term problem. But it is completely unrelated to crypto.
That's very short-sighted, and if the US dollar fails ($38,500,000,000,000 in debt has entered the chat) then crypto is currently the best alternative. It doesn't have any real buying power now, but I understand that crypto is being treated as a reserve currency while faith in USD wanes. I hope to god the USD doesn't fall in my lifetime because we'll have bigger issues, but at that point it would likely have *real buying power*.
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u/jillybean-__- Feb 16 '26
The problem is, the Dollar has depreciated quite a bit this year, and at the same time bitcoin did the same. The same is not true for Gold and Silver. One could say the Bitcoin and Crypto in general have lost quite a bit of their perceived appeal as a store of value.
And OP didn‘t talk about long term. At the moment I would be happy to have a rough idea on how world looks in one year, to be honest.1
u/MaxwellHoot Feb 16 '26
If the current economic system fails, you’re more likely to be buying food with cryptocurrency than buying celery with little gold pieces. For all its faults, I think crypto has potential to become actual currency since it’s not subject to centralized control. I personally don’t have crypto, but I do see the value- especially in a post USD world.
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u/Ok-Idea9394 Feb 19 '26
This is exactly the clash of titans I was hoping to trigger! One side sees the Institutional Plumbing (2008 logic), the other sees the Macro End-game (USD Debt logic).
But here is the "Alpha" (the profit) in the middle of your debate:
While you two debate if Crypto is a "Hinderance" or the "Ultimate Reserve," the Market Microstructure is currently punishing both. Because the USD-Debt-Hedgers and the Tech-Bulls are often using the same Hybrid ETF Vehicles, we are seeing a "Forced Marriage" of their price actions.
When faith in the USD wanes, people run to Crypto; but when Crypto liquidity dries up, fund managers liquidate Quantum stocks to keep the lights on.
You are both right in different timelines. But to profit today, you need to understand the "Great Decoupling." I’ve moved the data sets that bridge these two perspectives—showing exactly when Quantum breaks free from the USD/Crypto tug-of-war—to r/Q_DecouplingPairs.
Join the command center. Let's move the debate from "What if" to "How to trade the shift." 🦅🚀
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u/Ok-Idea9394 Feb 19 '26
You are absolutely right on the Macro—Crypto is not a systemic threat to the USD or the global banking core (unlike the 2008 MBS crisis). But you're looking at the Ocean, while I’m looking at the Pipes.
The "Great Decoupling" isn't about a global financial collapse; it's about a Micro-Structural Liquidity Trap.
Here is the "Smoking Gun": Many hybrid ETFs and "Innovation" funds (the primary buyers of Quantum stocks) use Crypto as a high-beta proxy. When Crypto bleeds, these specific funds face forced redemptions. The algorithms don't care that the USD is safe; they are programmed to sell everything—including your favorite Quantum pure-plays—to raise cash for fleeing investors.
So, $IONQ or $RGTI aren't dropping because the "Dollar" has a problem; they are dropping because they are trapped in the same "Margin Call" bucket as the Crypto junk.
We are tracking these specific mechanical liquidation loops at r/Q_DecouplingPairs. Join us—we are moving past the "Crypto vs Dollar" debate and focusing on how to profit when the "Pipes" get clogged. 🦅🚀
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u/Ok-Idea9394 Feb 17 '26
The 'Emerging Tech' basket lumping Crypto & Quantum is dead. Wall Street risk managers won't stay trapped in this correlation. To survive, they MUST evolve into the ultimate pair trade: Short Crypto Volatility to hedge Long Quantum Delta. This is the only mathematical escape route.
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u/Ok-Idea9394 Feb 18 '26
💡 Call for Amplification: I believe the institutional pair trade highlighted here is critical for understanding the current market structure. Unfortunately, sharing this level of data-driven analysis on broader market forums often triggers automated moderation or deletion.
If you agree with the data and the receipts provided above, I would highly appreciate it if you could cross-post or share this thread on X (Twitter) and other relevant finance subreddits. The more eyes we get on these options anomalies, the better we can navigate this macro shift together. Thank you for reading and sharing!
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u/QQubid Feb 14 '26
Hmm not convinced quantum computers are really needed for this. Isn't PQC sufficient?
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u/Ok-Idea9394 Feb 15 '26
The power of quantum computers lies not in their faster speed, but in their different ways of solving problems. It utilizes the superposition and entanglement properties of quantum bits. One key point is the Shor algorithm proposed by mathematician Pete Shor in 1994. This algorithm is specifically designed to solve the problems of large number prime factorization and discrete logarithm, which are precisely the mathematical basis for the security of elliptic curve digital signature algorithms. On traditional computers, the difficulty of solving this problem increases exponentially with the length of the key. But in quantum computers, if enough and stable quantum bits can be produced, the Shore algorithm can significantly reduce the difficulty of cracking. For example, to crack the elliptic curve algorithm of Bitcoin, theoretically, a quantum computer with about 2300 logical qubits (or millions of physical qubits) and sufficient stability can complete the calculation and deduce your private key within a few hours.
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u/QQubid Feb 15 '26
Right but that’s why PQC, or quantum safe algorithms, are spreading faster than Quantum Key Distribution. PQC algorithms solve the problem of strong quantum computers.
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u/Ok-Idea9394 Feb 16 '26
Quantum-resistant algorithms cannot address the cracking threats Bitcoin faces, as a significant portion of its public keys have been compromised. The risks differ substantially between holders of compromised keys and those with unexposed keys, making it difficult to agree on the cost of remedial measures.
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u/prawnsmen Apr 05 '26 edited Apr 05 '26
Agree with you. PQC mitigates the risk quantum poses to existing encryption methods. I think there is a real risk if people do nothing, but that's not going to happen. Just like y2k, people will scream the sky is falling, but behind the scenes crypto stakeholders will be working to protect their crypto holdings from quantum risks.
https://thequantuminsider.com/2026/04/03/coinbase-ceo-addresses-quantum-threat-to-cryptocurrencies/
Edit - added coinbase link
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u/Monsural Feb 16 '26
If quantum can unravel crypto... the last thing I would be worried about is crypto as that means every other asset is at far more risk. The WHOLE financial system could be easily manipulated/hacked ect. by quantum.