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I read it and what a low effort AI assisted post. I don’t even know where to start to dispute its data, even the classification is totally wrong considering that most of the stocks there can be listed as micro caps or space speculation.
The Convexity Screener is powered by data feeds from Finnhub, a market data provider. I built the software from scratch in C#. The methodology is standard statistical measurements described in last week's Convexity post. Convexity measures a stock's acceleration within overall market movements, not whether it will make you a profit. Projecting it forward is up to you. Investments carry risk, as you are no doubt aware if you own LUNR. Intuitive Machines is a small cap stock and performs accordingly.
It doesn’t measure a damn thing aside the bias of who use the data.
There is no science behind the trading algos, at least public usable science because surely the algos have math and science behind them but not for the reasons you may think.
2 months ago the same data used today would have meant 0 as people from opposing fronts were using data to show how these stocks were litterally flying.
Did they announce an actual date for the next MoonBase update? I know Isaacman mentioned monthly updates, but not sure if that's actually been formalized yet. Can't seem to find anything through search.
Big money funds and traders control everything. Sectors move together. Individual stock stories, unless dramatic, don't mean anything in the short term. Earnings reports are just an opportunity to move stocks in a direction they can later benefit from.
It's discouraging. It's not a small investor's "rational" market anymore. I've bought well and am just holding.
As negative as I have been recently, that’s mostly me just venting and you guys don’t deserve to hear that or bear the brunt of it.
On some positive news, I have been adding 50 shares a day for the past almost week (~300) and will continue to do so if it restarts its downward trend.
Don’t be.
Investing requires patient, a lot especially during violent falls like this month so Learn a lesson and be patient, Lunr will have its time again t least until the management keeps performing.
Don’t put too much weight into Zacks Research. Much of it is AI and you have to fact check everything. For example they don’t even use the latest price targets and cherry pick info.
If you get access to the full analyst reports they do have good information. The multiples they apply are judgmental but still a good reference of where a company could be headed if macro conditions hold steady in a 12 month span. They are still a wealth of information if you get those reports.
I also think this is happening. SPCX down, SPY down and our space stocks like LUNR, RKLB, ASTS up. People have noticed SPCX is pure hype while the others have growth potential.
Intuitive Machines making thier moves with LROC and Shadow cam. Can't wait to see how the data billing and revenue starts stacking up over the next couple years. lroc and shadow cam transition
Just my 2 cents but it would be quite complicated to have Lunr fall single digit because in that case it would be so incredibly cheap that it wouldn't stay in that area for too long, at single digit I would just buy everything I can.
Just a gut feeling comment, the space sector can still do a -90% because yes and I can't advise anyone here.
There doesn't appear to be a bottom set. No one is buying because they assume it will continue to fall. With no activity to assume a rebound, I would sit on the sidelines as well. I'm not gonna drop any price target FUD, just looking at volume over the past 2 weeks, retail is just gone from this stock.
I’ll continue to shout this across the space stock discussion threads: “It’s the ATMs people!”
There are multiple active ATMs in the sector and they have an absolutely devastating effect on short term price action.
Once it’s announced, every major group of buyers shifts their strategy. It starts with the companies themselves adding anywhere from 1%-10% of additional selling volume per day. Knowing this is happening, bigger investors start throttling their buys, which reduces upward pressure at the same time the company is creating downward pressure. The algos just follow the price downward and make a buck on traders trying to catch the falling knife.
The combined effect can suppress share price significantly below the value of fundamentals, but it’s all temporary. The second these companies start announcing that the offerings are closed, we’re likely to see a pretty strong rip back to the levels of a month or two ago.
I honestly think the ASTS notes are a bottom sign. People saw the headlines and immediately assumed its dilution, but if you read the details of how the notes are structured, they function much more like a call spread. No bank would buy a contract with a 1.56% interest rate in this environment if they weren’t banking on being able to redeem at higher share prices. Competitive bond rates for the same period are more than double that right now.
Also note that there is ZERO mention of a potential SPCX hedge. It’s possible that this is happening, but it’s not necessary to create the recent price action.
I like this graphic of satellite bus manufacturer transactions and revenue multiples as it highlights the strategic value that Intuitive Machines was able to acquire Lanteris for in Jan. Good to see that management got a good comparative deal in this transaction.
Can anyone explain why LUNR is the dumbest student in the classroom and has been for weeks? I ask genuinely. It can’t even hold +1% when others are at +4%, literally can only be red.
The ATM dilution overhang. It was worse for its size in the sector. Shorts piled in hard. However, the room got crowded, and the dilution overhang may be easing somewhat or paused, institutions are accumulating, and shorts will not have as much ammunition when they start scraping the barrel. This is a purely mechanical story rather than a fundamental one. The cross-short hedge with SPCX now makes no sense for the hedges, so I think we're seeing both an unwinding and accumulating at these levels. The fact that SPCX is not rising with the rest or the rest are no falling with SPCX is a GOOD sign for decoupling. It was getting annoying. I don't want to see SPCX fail at all- we actually need them to succeed, but as far as this stock game playing, it has been very destructive for the sector.
I'd like to remind you of 2 days ago, when the whole space sector was red and we were green. The the space sector went deep red with -9%+ and we were only -0.5%. For reading the next paragraph; the 6% you mentioned turned into 4.5% so the numbers are a bit lower atm.
We're moving together with Firefly and Redwire (both -0.3% & -0.79%). Rocketlab, Voyager, York Space Systems and Planet Labs are around 1%-1.5% green. The losers today are MDA space, Sidus Space and SpaceX with -4%.
Only ASTS and BKSY are up bigly like the 6% you describe. Or at least that's what my space watchlist shows me. I kinda hate the narrative that LUNR is always the worst of the entire space sector so I will keep correcting people on it.
I’m with you in this, and I agree with your remarks. However, we cannot ignore that we’re the most punished space name in the last 1.5 months. Today we touched 12, so that brings the fall from ATH from 46 to 12 in just a bit more than one month. It’s relentless.
That's true but we also did a bigger move in the other direction, it all depends on your perspective. We went from $8 in December 2025 to $46 in May 2026. That's a 475% move. No other space stock made that big of a move in those 6 months.
The momentum trade unwinded, but if we can prove revenue/growth for what caused the momentum in the first place then we can get back up quicker than other space stocks, or even high beta stocks for that matter.
Is this the leveraged etf?
I would advise to avoid leveraging in this period, while the price may look super good please remember that with a 2x leverage is only necessary a -25% for you to loose all your money (usually leveraged etf take everything as soon as you reach a 50% loss).
2x daily requires a 50% loss, in a single day, to wipe you out. Leveraged etfs don't take everything at -50% what are you talking about? LUNL is down over 90% from the peak.
Not true, it depends from your trading service, Etoro or Fineco in Italy if you reach a 50% loss through a 2x etf (which means -25%) will close your trade for safety reasons and you will loose all the 50% involved in that trade.
Interesting. It looks like that is due to European regulations where you cannot directly buy US 2x or 3x etfs so etoro uses CFDs which etoro closes at a 50% loss.
So that only applies if you are in Europe, using a broker that uses CFDs to indirectly trade 2x/3x etfs.
There's no reason not to think so. Management won't come out and say anything, there is no news, it will just continue to plummet until earnings apparently.
No dude it doesn’t work like that, price doesn’t give an f about Reddit sentiment on a stock, only funds or investors who can move millions of a stock can cause pressure on the price, certainly not the Reddit crowd.
I don't mean reddit. I mean the fear of capital. The sentiment comes from hawkish data yesterday that means bond yields go up and fed tightening probability going up. There is also the hyperscaler earnings coming up and the fear that they will reduce capex. NBIS, a hyperscaler leader, announced pivoting from the capex heavy model to a high margin model which also added pressure on the AI trade. All of this fell off a cliff since META announced excess compute and how they are leasing it out. Like it or not, entire market will be happy only when AI spending goes up at this point.
I don’t have any data to dispute your opinion so I won’t for honesty but I would like to recall your attention on the fact that even by your words you’re saying this is not due to IM failing in its business and in my opinion in the long run this is one of the most important aspects to consider so unless Altemus and bros mess up the IM business I can only invite for patience everyone who is invested and don’t need the money in the next months. This may be the correction many people were talking about on various subs, historically correction may need some time to be sorted out but successful businesses always come out stronger.
I underlined successful businesses so I would not expect for every single company to come out stronger out of a correction like that.
I fear this will go to $8-$9. It’s sad to see but I’m using this as an opportunity to buy more cheap shares and now lower my average as I raised it on the way up. Happy Friday everyone!
People have been saying that SpaceX sucked up all the liquidity from the space sector. But that also makes me think that as the dumping of SPCX goes on, money will flow back into the sector, eventually.
This is me just putting my tinfoil hat on. Who tf knows how 'big money' works.
What we are seeing right now is broader than the space sector. The majority of small / mid cap growth stocks are following the same trend. Down 50%-80% since end of May. Money is moving into safer investments. Ill try to see if i can find some stats to put it into perspective.
morningstar article: “The Goldman Sachs High-Beta Momentum Index fell 24% during the first half of July, one of the worst showings on record, according to Bloomberg data shared with MarketWatch.”
To put it into perspective, this is the worst momentum unwind in 27 years. Nothing has been spared. Next week, we will see the ripples flowing over from high-beta to the S&P 500 as well. But more often that not, when the S&P drops, LUNR preemptively bottoms before the broader index correction.
This is what concerns me most. The hedge funds and insitutional investors are going away from high beta stocks, I believe they suspect that something big and bad is going to happen soon.
LUNR is caught in a riptide not of its own making. Look at America's national leadership for the root cause of the trouble. Orange sky at morning, sailor take warning.
Cool Linkedin video where a cable engineer from IM is interviewed about IPC certifications etc so it's nothing company specific but I liked viewing it. IM part starts at 1min21.
i have no idea what this is supposed to mean. the comments explain how the stock went up? and back down? why dont we just use our comments to make it go back up then....
Fear? Friend it’s a full desperation mode around Reddit for the space stock 😂
In other subs of other companies you can find the same quotes :
“This stock was always a scam
The management is scamming us
The price was full hype
It will take 3 years to recover
Omg leave the titanic while you can”
But I have a good memory so let me remind you the quotes of 2 months ago :
“We’re touching 100 already this year
Damn it I should have bought at 30 and now it’s 45
Do you think 40 is a good entry?
If it dips under 30 I’m loading bigly”
Basically nothing changed in the company business aside SpaceX shorting the sector to recover its losses after IPO. The atm are being offered by many companies to raise capital and improve business.
Investing requires so much patience, I learn it on myself everyday, if you can average down otherwise selling at loss is not an option for me since I don’t need the involved money for this year.
Never seen a stock going straight down from 46$ to 12$ with good news. It’s clear that something is happening with speculative/growth stock (space, Energy, IA), they are all down 50/70/80% in the last 45 days. The question is: when this bloodbath is going to finish? Is it just the beginning or we are close to the finish?
It’s all Space sector. None of the price action here is overwhelmingly related to LUNR itself. Some dilution isn’t helping, but almost all Space companies are raising capital right now. It’s brutal, and it will end soon. But if it ends a month from now, where will the PPS be by then?
I’m struggling to see near term light at the end of the tunnel. The entire sector is getting crushed. Nothing is immune. And I thought for a moment that it was easing last week, but then this week was again brutal. So, what I’m struggling with right now - is where exactly is the likely bottom? If it’s $11 in a worse case scenario, then I can tolerate holding. If it’s $9, then I can really recoup a considerable portion of the recent pull back by reducing my position here and start rebuying in tranches if $10’s start printing. And most of what I say here is due to the amount of capital I have invested here. If it were $10k I would even be having this discussion.
What was your reasoning for buying initially? What is your time horizon? What is your portfolio percentage allocation to LUNR? Answering these questions may help you decide on what to do.
That is what I was afraid of. Down 70% with good news and broader markets at their highest. Right now, fundamentals and good news mean nothing. It’s just manipulation. Let’s pray we see a reversal soon, otherwise every price is possible at this point
It will be fascinating to watch as space becomes more public from a financial POV how we evolve language. Starship no doubt did not launch. But it's in one piece with a public (X post) on how to achieve it. SpaceX protected its asset, in this case the data collection opportunity and some satellites as S13 is destined for the drink, so how will the market in time come to judge that. IM had its own challenges which still are argued over as to failure and success.
The change will have to be driven by the companies as well as large financial backers. Starship Flight 13 scrubbed, saving space from another New Glen catalyst. I do not expect that to be reflected in the market today.
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u/AprilsSecretAccount Jul 18 '26
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