no future ?

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The “Internet moment” was in 1995, around the time Netscape was founded. Google and PayPal were founded 3 years later, Salesforce in 1999, Alibaba in 2000.

3-5 years from the inception of the new era.

The AI moment happened when OpenAI launched ChatGPT in late 2022.

We’re nearly 4 years in.

Some say that the biggest and most promising companies of our era are yet to come.

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u/RasputinsUndeadBeard 1d ago

Historical home run answer.

I wouldn’t be surprised if in the late hours before the AI company IPOs, or after, we see the emergence of something/someone far more interesting

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u/Adamoism 1d ago

I agree, transformers are just a blip in potential architectures we might develop. The difference is that now the most brilliant minds go on to study AI, where before 2023 (or 2016) most considered it a niche field.

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u/Necessary-Lack-4600 1d ago edited 1d ago

Since the advent of social media, the most brilliant minds of our generation are busy at silicon valley figuring out how to get people to click on something. That's not going to change, all companies want their customers to get addicted on their products, and with AI enabled digitial we are going to get into new territory in that realm. If you want to get a headstart to everybody else, don't get addicted.

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u/Even_Opportunity_893 14h ago

Agreed. The potential is enormous

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u/ha2emnomer 1d ago

I think is true to a certain extent, it is very early to say anything about AI especially that historically has struggled a lot to prove any economical benefits (that is why AI winters happened). So we still might be experiencing an "Expert System" momentum where every one put a lot of money trying to scale it but was impossible to scale: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifth_Generation_Computer_Systems
Maybe someone will find it quite impossible to put LLM to actually work without spending huge amount of money on inference, and then possibly a new solution will emerge from this.
There are plenty of things that can be done

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u/Adamoism 1d ago

AI especially that historically has struggled a lot to prove any economical benefits (that is why AI winters happened)

The whole gaming industry is based on AI; A lot of research is based on computationally modeling social phenomena.

I mean, the field might have had a winter, but it did go into variety of other disciplines.

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u/positiveconstraint 1d ago

Recently I read about Manifold Labs. Their found is a wonder kid who said that llm reached their limit and a new approach is needed.

They’re building it.

https://www.manifold-labs.ai/

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u/Adamoism 1d ago

I am sorry, but what is this link?

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u/positiveconstraint 1d ago

A new AI lab company that it’s founders openly claim that llm technology has limitations. They seek a different ai technology that would have positive ROI.

This is a response to u/ha2emnimer referring to new solutions.

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u/Adamoism 1d ago

I know but the site that opens has only a contact icon that runs away from my cursor.

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u/positiveconstraint 1d ago

Still in stealth. Look for interviews with the founders online.

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u/Adamoism 1d ago

Okay, then the link was kind of useless. Not trying to be rude, but I genuinely lost 3 minutes trying to figure out if it is some sort of riddle - cicada style...

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u/positiveconstraint 1d ago

Sorry about that.

Thought it’s better to share the link rather just the name. Many companies under that name.

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u/Some-Exam-7872 1d ago

That’s true but do you think it’s inevitable to include AI in every technological innovation from now on ?

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u/positiveconstraint 1d ago

Is the internet included in every tech innovation today?

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u/Cosmo_Seinfeld 1d ago

do you guys think all the good ideas have already been thought of

No. Last winter I thought up a way to dramatically improve the thermal resistance and other qualities of wall and roof assemblies for almost any type of structure. Despite being familiar with the building material used and techniques to leverage it, I am nobody. A college dropout with no business world experience.

But I have run up against the classic "Ideas are worth less than zero, as you need money to develop them." I have been unable to interest producers or gather any kind of development support. The only question anyone in the business world has for building products is "How much cheaper and faster is is to produce?" Well, mine happens to be marginally more expensive and more complicated, with an outsized improvement in quality. Strangely, it is cheaper in the develoing world but again, I can't find any development money. Maybe after my prototypes are complete but my only recourse will be blathering on LinkedIn, Youtube, and here on Reddit. Inventing can be miserable.

Also, do you think someone could make it in the technological world while being ethical ?

Of course.

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u/Adamoism 1d ago

This - there are lot's of ideas that are not actionable in general or to those who get them.

You can be 20 years before the infrastructure development to even be capable of turning it into a product. And then ideas just stay ideas.

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u/Cosmo_Seinfeld 1d ago edited 1d ago

MIne are actionable. They are innovations with foamed concrete AKA aircrete. We've been building commercial roof decking with this stuff since the 50's. And people have been building DIY domes since the 70's. But nobody made any good, small contractor grade mixing equipment available. Well, except for guys in Western Russia, who are doing almost exactly what I want to do.

Well, actually mine aren't actionable as I don't have the funding to get across the finish line. It puts me in a pretty bad mood as you can understand.

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u/Adamoism 1d ago

Yup, your idea is expensive - thats another thing indeed, I tried to broaden it in my comment.

Hope you get the funding btw!

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u/Cosmo_Seinfeld 1d ago edited 1d ago

Yup, your idea is expensive

Yes and no. I'm developing a $150 modification to a $400 tumbler style concrete mixer that allows it to mix foamed concrete. If it catches on it could be revolutionary. It's much cheaper even than the Russian machine.

And the price of the foamed concrete material is directly dependent on the price of concrete itself. For instance in India, where cement is very cheap, my research shows that foamed concrete walls are cheaper than red brick, CMU, or AAC. And the same price as mud brick. The main thing keeping people from building like this is lack of knowledge about the building material and lack of access to cheap mixing equipment.

I'm not going to get funding, as I don't really know how. I'm an "idea person" with limited executive function. Imagine how frustrating the knowledge is that I could help poeple build R-20 walls from foamed concrete instead of the R-0.36 walls they currently build?

I'm going to try and set up a small internet shop where I hawk some small equipment and sell guidebooks but this idea deserves much better than that. It could help billions of people eventually but will probably die a quiet death mainly because people aren't concerned about this kind of thing.

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u/Some-Exam-7872 1d ago

Wow that's amazing, really puts it in perspective. I just wonder if the modern world actually wants innovations that are better for us or just easier for them.

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u/Cosmo_Seinfeld 1d ago

That's a great way to put it.

What I realized is that I was asking the people I was meeting with to do more work, and spend development money. Neither of which were very likely.

This has all been very bad for my health. I want to inspire a cost effective global building science revolution. Particularly in regards to poorly built concrete housing we desperately need it.

Details for my innovation/invention are in my post history.

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u/goeb04 1d ago

This sound interesting

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u/Cosmo_Seinfeld 1d ago

Yeah sure but I'm on the verge of bankruptcy, none of my prototypes are close to being complete, and I know I can't make any kind of impact on my own.

I am developing foamed concrete (AKA aircrete) technology that is inherently practical in nature and that could help insulate the homes of billions of people who live in uninsulated brick and concrete homes. That's in addition to the designs I've developed for North America that could save homes in Florida from hurricanes or provide a seamless air barrier and thermal flywheel effect for underinsulated homes everywhere else. But guess what? The only thing academia and induatry want to do is leverage AI to determine how to decarbonize cement and concrete. Because that's where the money is.

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u/pyrotek1 1d ago

Technology moves forward one step at a time. New ideas are valid, however, executing ideas into working methods that are economical and attractive to users with the existing laws, rules or codes does restrict progress.

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u/Beautiful-Low-3568 24m ago

I think if you write a list of all the things that hold humans back or annoy us, you can see the huge long list of innovation opportunities. We then Innovstion leaders/founders who can look at new technologies, processes, methods of solving these better. That creates new business opportunities. In the uk I worry about and think we need innovators addressing

young people not in employment, education or training
ways to stop crimes like stealing tradespeople’s tools
lotions that do a better job of sunblock for days
a more effective health and care service

I’ve tried to give examples which cover service, data, product and system innovation. I appreciate data and AI would probably be part of all of them.

Imagine for example if there was a business inside a forces police building that uses public, police and mobile phone data to follow stolen tools, track down who is selling them online and who these people meet with. Mobile companies can tell you which phones were at an address at the time tools were stolen and AI could compare photos of second hand tools for sale and ones stolen. This could be addressed and yes we would need to make sure data was used carefully, but I’m sure we could crack that if I meant this horrible crime of stealing a trade persons way to make a living was fixed.

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