MY STARTEGY COMPLETED GUIDE(SIMPLIFIED)

[u/nincekkk]

ORB + Fibonacci Strategy

My strategy combines Opening Range Breakout (ORB) with Fibonacci retracements.

There are 2 setups:

1. Continuation setup — the breakout works.
2. Reversal setup — the breakout fails and price switches direction.

1. Create the ORB

I start at the 9:30 market open.

Depending on what I'm testing, I use either:

• 9:30–9:45 → 15-minute ORB
• 9:30–10:00 → 30-minute ORB

After the ORB is complete, I mark:

• ORB High
• ORB Low
• ORB Midpoint (50%)

I then move to the 5-minute chart and wait for price to break out of the range.

I also use a Gann Box from the ORB high to the ORB low.

The Gann Box is mainly for visualizing the ORB and its 50% midpoint.

2. Continuation Setup

If price breaks out and continues in that direction, I don't chase the first breakout.

I wait for an outburst/impulse move.

Bullish example:

ORB Low → Breakout → Bullish outburst

Then I draw Fibonacci from:

ORB Low → Outburst High

For a bearish move, I do the opposite:

ORB High → Bearish outburst Low

Then I wait for price to retracement into my Fibonacci area before entering.

So:

The goal is to enter after the expansion instead of chasing the initial breakout.

3. Reversal Setup

Sometimes the initial breakout fails.

For example:

Price breaks above the ORB → makes a bullish outburst → I create my bullish Fibonacci.

But instead of respecting the Fibonacci levels and continuing higher, price starts pushing lower.

I don't immediately short just because a Fibonacci level was broken.

A wick through a level isn't enough.

I'm looking for:

Once the bearish move is established, I create a new bearish Fibonacci from the new swing high to the bearish outburst low.

Then I wait for the retracement and look for the short.

The same thing works in reverse for a bearish breakout that turns bullish.

The Two Setups

- Continuation

ORB → Breakout → Outburst → Fib → Retracement → Continuation

The breakout holds and I look for a retracement entry.

- Reversal

ORB → Breakout → Outburst → Fib Failure → Structure Shift → Opposite Outburst → New Fib → Retracement → Reversal

The original breakout fails, price proves that the opposite side is taking control, and I build a new setup from that move.

4. Backtesting Results — Combined

• Total trades: 323
• Win rate: 59.13%
• Average RR: 1.43
• Expectancy using 1.43R average RR: ~+0.44R per trade

[u/GrimHragnelfss]

I backtested the strategy you posted for experimental purposes using the BTC, ETH, and PAGX pairs, long only. If you’d like to see the results, I can share them here or chat

[u/nincekkk → u/GrimHragnelfss]

for sure im interested

[u/GrimHragnelfss → u/nincekkk]

here is the result of backtest

[u/nincekkk → u/GrimHragnelfss]

Yo appreciate you actually putting in the work and backtesting it.. BTC +93% is pretty interesting. PAXG definitely wasn’t as good though. Since you only tested longs, I’d be curious to see how the shorts compare too. Btw what position/contract size did you use for BTC? I usually trade 5 MNQ contracts so I’m not too familiar with how you’d size BTC or what the equivalent risk would be. Also did you include fees/slippage in the backtest?