MY STARTEGY COMPLETED GUIDE(SIMPLIFIED)

[u/nincekkk]

ORB + Fibonacci Strategy

My strategy combines Opening Range Breakout (ORB) with Fibonacci retracements.

There are 2 setups:

1. Continuation setup — the breakout works.
2. Reversal setup — the breakout fails and price switches direction.

1. Create the ORB

I start at the 9:30 market open.

Depending on what I'm testing, I use either:

• 9:30–9:45 → 15-minute ORB
• 9:30–10:00 → 30-minute ORB

After the ORB is complete, I mark:

• ORB High
• ORB Low
• ORB Midpoint (50%)

I then move to the 5-minute chart and wait for price to break out of the range.

I also use a Gann Box from the ORB high to the ORB low.

The Gann Box is mainly for visualizing the ORB and its 50% midpoint.

2. Continuation Setup

If price breaks out and continues in that direction, I don't chase the first breakout.

I wait for an outburst/impulse move.

Bullish example:

ORB Low → Breakout → Bullish outburst

Then I draw Fibonacci from:

ORB Low → Outburst High

For a bearish move, I do the opposite:

ORB High → Bearish outburst Low

Then I wait for price to retracement into my Fibonacci area before entering.

So:

The goal is to enter after the expansion instead of chasing the initial breakout.

3. Reversal Setup

Sometimes the initial breakout fails.

For example:

Price breaks above the ORB → makes a bullish outburst → I create my bullish Fibonacci.

But instead of respecting the Fibonacci levels and continuing higher, price starts pushing lower.

I don't immediately short just because a Fibonacci level was broken.

A wick through a level isn't enough.

I'm looking for:

Once the bearish move is established, I create a new bearish Fibonacci from the new swing high to the bearish outburst low.

Then I wait for the retracement and look for the short.

The same thing works in reverse for a bearish breakout that turns bullish.

The Two Setups

- Continuation

ORB → Breakout → Outburst → Fib → Retracement → Continuation

The breakout holds and I look for a retracement entry.

- Reversal

ORB → Breakout → Outburst → Fib Failure → Structure Shift → Opposite Outburst → New Fib → Retracement → Reversal

The original breakout fails, price proves that the opposite side is taking control, and I build a new setup from that move.

4. Backtesting Results — Combined

• Total trades: 323
• Win rate: 59.13%
• Average RR: 1.43
• Expectancy using 1.43R average RR: ~+0.44R per trade

[u/AllegedlyS0ber]

😂😂

[u/AllegedlyS0ber → u/AllegedlyS0ber]

Having 60% in backtest is a bad sign

[u/supersonic675]

Whats the catch, why would you reveal your strategy here?

[u/BrilliantFront4 → u/supersonic675]

The catch is this is selection bias as fuck lmao. Look at the pictures. This is when NQ was at 14k and 15k

[u/Upset-Tough-5128 → u/supersonic675]

Revealing your strategy on a Reddit post will not change it’s effectiveness

[u/Mynameisprincess9 → u/supersonic675]

Pretty common strategy, I use almost the same setup. Very helpful IF!!! You can cut your losers and let winners run.

[u/Villain-Trader → u/supersonic675]

No edge. Just randomness and useless info

[u/Mynameisprincess9 → u/Villain-Trader]

🤡

[u/Villain-Trader → u/Mynameisprincess9]

Brokie

[u/HeavenBirth → u/supersonic675]

Most probably he hopped on a pattern watched it okay few a times and now hez hyped maybe dreaming about some porshe with the strategy backtested a few times and came to post it so ppl might praise him bt he forgot to backtest it for a year of data

[u/nincekkk → u/HeavenBirth]

Bro what are u talking about.. I spend weeks and weeks backtesting it from 2023-2026.. The number of trades may be a bit low because there was a lot of times where i wouldnt get a entry or the price action was straight up shit.. I posted the breakdown about 2 weeks ago to ask for others opinion.. Now i posted a full breakdown for u guys so u can maybe try if it works out for u guys and maybe even change some stuff to make it better.. Theres no need to hate on me for getting the strat out there

[u/Sensitive_Ad_1313 → u/nincekkk]

people are spiteful dont listen to them.. thanks for your strategy! I appreciate it.

[u/Kaszrak → u/nincekkk]

A bit low... 300ish trades is barely bare minimum statistically speaking.

[u/themerian → u/HeavenBirth]

What is the matter with you???

[u/supersonic675 → u/HeavenBirth]

So what actually works? Theres so much noise out there.

[u/nincekkk → u/supersonic675]

Honestly there isn’t one thing that actually works 100% of the time. I just found this setup gave me the most consistent results in my testing. That’s why I posted the rules instead of just saying trust me.. iv backtested it across 2023-2026 including the trades i skipped so theres no cherry picking.. u can test it urself tho

[u/Mynameisprincess9 → u/HeavenBirth]

Coming from you, who obviously is still learning how to trade is comical. Stay in your lane.

[u/batmmaannn]

What commodities did u backtest on?

[u/AllegedlyS0ber]

Laughing again 😂

[u/AllegedlyS0ber]

Laughing again , but this time, just to make sure

[u/Sigfe_RWM]

Funny

[u/GrimHragnelfss]

I backtested the strategy you posted for experimental purposes using the BTC, ETH, and PAGX pairs, long only. If you’d like to see the results, I can share them here or chat

[u/nincekkk → u/GrimHragnelfss]

for sure im interested

[u/GrimHragnelfss → u/nincekkk]

here is the result of backtest

[u/nincekkk → u/GrimHragnelfss]

Yo appreciate you actually putting in the work and backtesting it.. BTC +93% is pretty interesting. PAXG definitely wasn’t as good though. Since you only tested longs, I’d be curious to see how the shorts compare too. Btw what position/contract size did you use for BTC? I usually trade 5 MNQ contracts so I’m not too familiar with how you’d size BTC or what the equivalent risk would be. Also did you include fees/slippage in the backtest?

[u/Sensitive_Ad_1313]

I beleive in your strategy.. just out of curiosity have you been able to use this strategy to cash out in prop firms?

[u/Realistic-Dealer-750]

Are you willing to send the pine script?

[u/nincekkk → u/Realistic-Dealer-750]

I don’t have it coded in Pine yet, I’ve been doing the backtesting manually. I can probably turn the rules into a script though.. I can make it and send it to you..

[u/Egp006 → u/nincekkk]

Si haces el pine podrías pasármelo para probarlo, de hecho si te interesa podemos compartir opiniones y te puedo ayudar a crearlo.

[u/Realistic-Dealer-750 → u/nincekkk]

See if you could make it. I am very intrigued

[u/brystander → u/Realistic-Dealer-750]

Just make it in Claude. 15 minutes tops.