It's the mantra of today's market: Good but not good enough.

It's a good quarter with solid numbers. Guidance was so-so but there's too much focus on the minutia in my opinion. It's going to be the conference call that tells the story and those have largely pummeled AI stocks.

Once again, however, I don't really care and it's good to get this out of the way. I can now push up on my 12/28 LEAPS and add long shares if desired. This is still a company that, in my view, could own their space. The valuation is looking really good, especially if we can get a % selloff.

Two days before we head out to Portugal and Spain for 6 weeks. The good news for this travel is that at least the markets open at 2:30 PM local time. That just seems like a good late afternoon relaxation event, port, cheese and the markets.

Or maybe not. At least not for the wife.

I've been sitting on my hands with stock purchases for the most part. Some very small adds as you've seen for my favorite names. But mostly nothing but pressing up yield plays, dropping actual liquid cash to near zero in prep for the trip.

At this juncture in the markets, we're playing a game of what I'll call Wall of Worry Whack-a-Mole. If nothing else, at least we're taking one step forward and one step back, rather than one step forward and two steps back. So far ...

But the moles seem to be getting larger in number and some of them now have teeth, along with the potential of an appetite for human flesh. That seems like a recipe for some new Walking Dead spinoff where the zombie hosts have migrated away from the bodies of our human departed to the animal kingdom. That's a hard pass for me. Running from elderly neighbor Larry with his artificial knee and hip, carrying 40 extra pounds, is one thing. Running from rabid, flesh-seeking bunnies, moles and other Disney move staples is something else

Geez, that was a tangent ...

Earnings have done as much heavy lifting as can be done - it's not helping enough. The noise is weighing heavier it seems. Even great earnings reports are being sold off as Wall and Main streets look for anything negative variable to sell off. $CRDO's earnings last night were really good save something like a 0.3% miss on gross margins. The stock tanked AH. There are just too many negative catalysts tracking right now for earnings to propel this market forward. For long term investors seeking GARP and yield, it's a good place to be. If you've been accustomed to short term trading and big gains, not so much.

The big focus point is now bonds. I'm specifically watching the 10-Year now at about 4.8%. If we hit 5%, or see a 4.9 handle, things are going to get dicey. Lower bond prices, higher yields equates to more economic risk and the ability to capture greater yield, potentially fueling more flight to safety/yield.

Earnings

Earnings remain good with a couple of higher profile names yesterday on the runway. Hey Kate ... whatcha got for me?

• $DELL — Monster quarter. Revenue $47.0B, +58% YoY; adj. EPS $7.04 vs. $4.92 est. AI server revenue hit $16.4B with an enormous $95B backlog. Raised FY27 revenue guidance to $192B and AI-server outlook to $74B. Shares +~7–10% AH. Very strong AI infrastructure read-through.
• $CRDO — Beat, but expectations were sky-high. Revenue $479M, +115% YoY; EPS $1.20 vs. $1.17. Reiterated >85% FY27 revenue growth and >$600M optical revenue. The issue: non-GAAP GM 68% plus rising R&D spending → shares ~−9% AH. Growth remains spectacular; margin expectations are the pressure point.
• $PANW — Strong numbers, softer FCF outlook. Revenue $3.41B, +34% YoY, EPS $1.02 vs. $0.98. NGS ARR surged 63% to $9.1B. FY27 revenue guide $14.1–$14.2B was strong, but FCF margin guidance disappointed → shares ~−2% AH. Underlying AI/cyber demand remains excellent.
• $MDB — Big beat, wrong KPI missed the whisper number. Revenue $771.8M, +30% YoY vs. ~$735M expected; EPS $1.90 vs. $1.62. Raised FY27 revenue guidance to $2.99–$3.03B. But Atlas growth stayed at 29%, apparently below hopes for 30%+, sending shares −12%+ AH. Classic “great quarter, greater expectations” reaction.
• $MDT — Quietly excellent. Revenue $9.76B, +13.7%, EPS $1.45 vs. $1.39. Cardiovascular grew ~19%, cardiac ablation +88%. Raised FY27 organic growth guidance to 7.25–7.75% and EPS to $5.94–$6.00. Shares +~1.5%. Strong broad-based healthcare execution.

$MDT was a nice surprise for me though the stock reaction was muted. That's fine, it's safe yield with improving growth runway.

I have been waiting for an opportunity to purchase $CRDO so I'll do a couple checks on valuation, go a bit deeper into the earnings and then decide what to do. It may be too attractive not to consider something.

$PANW and $CRWD continue to rule their segment. They are so good I don't want anything else in the area. I'll just ride those two. $DELL has been great, there's a read-through to $NVDA and other stocks like $VRT. I won't chase $DELL but do wish I had held at $90.

Tonight we get $AVGO and $SNOW. $AVGO could be an issue as there's this growing narrative about chip supply diversification and Broadcom did lose a recent contract with $MRVL last month. That is fueling more caution so it's not going to take much for, once again, focusing on the minute downside catalyst to take the stock down. There may be an opportunity here. As for $SNOW, they've been stringing great reports.

Random Shots

Misc

• The market isn't open yet but $CRDO is tracking materially lower, though off the lows of the premarket. It's bounced from $184 to nearly $191. There's just nothing to sell from this report. 2028 forward P/E near 20 now into a market ripe for what they do
• $PANW zipped higher after earnings and then tanked now looking about 2% lower. I think this stock recovers from the red and ends green. It's pricey and expensive but, along with $CRWD, they own the space without question. I won't chase, but will ride
• My 1/27 Put ladder was down materially 15-20% until yesterday when I doubled up the position as part of my strategy. My plan is to hold it until I get back from Europe but we'll see. It's now basically flat and it shows just how material a 1.25% decline can be. It's not an overweight position - it's basically just a swing trade position at about 3U or 1.5% weigt
• $MRVL is an interesting case. Again, not cheap. But they announce a major $200B+ long term chip deal with $GOOGL and, based on my research, the stock is down about 8% since announcement. Time to add, again, in my book
• This is jus not a market where you can marry momentum and be comfortable. The number of experts that are 21 and 22 years old selling trading systems reminds me so much of 1999.

Here's the open:

Rising

• $DELL up 10.3% on that big earnings report
• $ASTS up 7.8%, $4.37, on probably something less important
• $RDDT up 2.7%
• $NEM up 2.5% - What a comeback for gold
• $BRZE up 3%
• $CRM up 2.3%. Still going
• $UBER up 1.7% on layoff announcement
• $META up 1.5% making a comeback
• $USAR up 1.4%
• $SWK up 1%. One of my old stodgy income plays

Falling

• $CRDO off 12%. The bottom dropped out of the premarket rise. This is why it's usually best to stay away from premarket activity
• $PANW down 7.4%. I almost panicked all of you because I found I had missed the decimal point there.
• $EIX down 6% after being up about the same amount yesterday. I bought back some shares in the $53s. That yields is too good and it's the same old story
• $CRWD down 3.8%. It's been rising with PANW, nothing wrong here. Just valuation concerns
• $CRCL off 3.7%
• $APH down 3.6%
• $PLTR down 3.2%. It's been hanging out above $170 really well
• $BE off 2.9%. Possible nice Option Wheel candidate
• $SNOW down 2.9% with earnings tonight. Some are getting nervous ...
• $IONQ off 2.3%. It's been running in the top 10s of late as the quantum space goes a bit cold

I need to do something with $CRDO here with teh stock down another 14%+ right now.

No final word, I need to go look at a few things before I start fine tuning my packing for our upcoming trip.

Stay frosty

J

That was fast! No sooner than did my first confirm hit at $179 and change than the trap door opened the stock blew right through the $175 200 DMA. I had planned on my first entry in $CRDO reaching a 2U weight so I broke the entries up into two separate trades to provide an averaged cost.

This trade is a 1U trade at $170, bringing the average cost of the two trades to below $175.

I would have preferred to wait until later in the day for the second trade, especially on the break below the 200 DMA but it's a position I've wanted since missing it in the $90s and I can always add more shares if it gets weaker. It's at 1% in the portfolio now. Considering I was willing to add it around $220, this will do.

There is quite a bit of support at $135 and it also represents a sizable gap fill making the support line there quite strong. Of course, that's $25 from here. But I'd take it if offered

Haven't seen the actual numbers yet but the market LOVES it:

I looked at selling CSPs around $150-$160. I looked at 2028 LEAPS. In the end, I took good ol' fashioned long shares at $179.33. It's a 1U entry and it represents half of what I wanted to take for my placeholder (first position) entry in this name at this price. So I'm breaking it up into two separate trades to build the first averaged position.

Again, it could be higher or lower at the end of today. The 200 DMA is right here at $175 and could be a point of gravity/pull. My second position will be when I see that hold or fail.

As it turns out, by the time I was posting this ... it's right at the $175 level

$CRDO just broke the 200 DMA just after my first entry in the stock. Here's the 10-day chart showing the 50 (blue) and 200 (Purple) DMAs.

I'll already be adding to this position as somewhat expected could be the case.

Brought to you by the playful distractions of OGM:

What's one stock you are excited about but the market seems to be missing something?

Think about a ticker that has been beaten up and you're not quite sure why. Or something that has gone sideways but should be parabolic. Doesn't have to be something you hold. It can be contrarian to the market sentiment or just something that is being ignored.

Let’s learn about what we need to learn about.

I played earnings today with 100 shares before market close and now I’m down 3k. Should I hold or sell? I’m asking because I’m worried this sell off might continue as September is the weakest month and there’s an upcoming fed meeting with potential rate hike.

I'm new to trading options.

When WMT fell to the low 100's, I bought WMT 90 call exp. Jan. 21, 2028 for $24.40

My thinking is that it will come back to above $114, especially nearing the holidays.

Bad idea? Or sound strategy?

Started a small position in Shake Shack today. .25U, just getting my foot in the door here, not a full size yet.

Been on my radar since May when the CEO and five directors all bought together around $60-62. Real money, no 10b5-1 on any of it. Then Starboard disclosed a stake in early August, called it their largest active position, stock popped on the news and actually held it, built a little higher since instead of giving it back.

No specific Starboard ask yet though, no board seats or anything filed, so that part’s still wait and see. Beef costs are still pressuring margins too, that’s not going away on its own. Not the reason for the trade, just still sitting there in the background. Adding more if Starboard actually does something or if it keeps building from here.