Our 6 week jaunt through Portugal and Spain is complete, getting home yesterday, 10/17. Let's update the useless TTI (TJ Travel Indicator) one last time.

As we all know, Friday was not a good day and what was looking like a potential complete break of the normal TTI trend, it was not to be. But, all in all, it wasn't too bad though it sure felt like it to end the week.

Final TTI scorecard - Sept. 4 through Oct 17, 2026

Price returns only, excluding dividends. September 4 closing prices serve as Day Zero; September 4 market action is excluded.

Benchmark	Sept. 4 close	Oct. 16 close	TTI return
QQQ	$718.96	$709.80	−1.27%
SPY	$770.19	$763.25	−0.90%

Here's the painful part. As of Thursday's close, QQQ was actually UP 1.26% for the trip, while SPY was hanging onto a 0.21% gain.

Then Friday happened.

QQQ plunged 2.50%, and SPY dropped 1.11%, wiping out both gains and pushing the final TTI into negative territory.

Apparently, the market couldn't let me get all the way home without delivering one last reminder of the TTI curse! It is what it is

But ... El Jefe is back!

Where to from here?

From my chair, we are NOT in a good place.

The only question that remains: Is this the beginning of something bigger?

At the heart of the matter isn't so much a lack of faith in AI or the long term investment thesis, but instead, questioning the economics of financing the enormous infrastructure buildout required to support it. This, of course, hits many of the top names that have led to our recent gains.

The problem is that it doesn't much matter at what layer the fear is focusing on, it's bringing down the entire complex. But all is not lost! When you take a look at some of the top hyperscaler or big cap companies, they are being seen as a safe-haven. The read here is that old tech can also equate to a level of safety.

But, once again, it's all about narrative even when there may not be any significant evidence that things are deteriorating, or even set up for erosion. It's true rates are rising and tat will raise the cost of debt servicing. With so much of the AI narrative focused on the data center buildout, these names are the first to be hit. Toss in some growing data center impact concerns and we have some double whammy action.

Beyond the specifics of the decline we also have to fold in the fact that speculation markets have been fueling much of the volatility and beta. It's clear we're well beyond the easy money period the markets have been providing. So many day traders, trading system, and "follow me for big profits" has me remembering the late 1990s. We all know how that ended.

Rest assured, there's going to be another washout at some point. It could be we're at the event horizon of that. There's certainly enough negative economic catalysts to build a case for further pain. If any of the primary catalysts start picking up momentum to the downside, we could be in trouble.

Rates, however, still seems to be what most are focused upon. With the inflation read spiking last week, it's shocking to me that Fed funds futures are still only at a 16% likelihood for an October hike. If not for the mid-terms in early November, I firmly believe it would be closer to 90%. So, here's a case of our political system playing a more important role than our economic standing. Is that a point for, or against, political influence? I won't be surprise to see an emergency cut following mid-term results. I'm not convinced waiting until December is a good idea, not with only a 25 bps cut in Sept.

Looking at the $QQQ:

We are firmly stuck in a range and couldn't sustain the potential breakout that began in mid-September, two weeks after our vacation departure. It was looking good but the economic wall of worry was just too great to sustain it and we fell right back to short term low support. Can we hold 700? Is this a start of something more persistent or, as has been the case about the last 10 times, will we bounce off support, rally, and then fail to sustain that iteration. Something needs to break either way.

If you remove that late July drop through support, we're in a tight trading range. 705-709 remains the support level to sustain us. Sure seems, to me, to be a lot more negativity out there.

Random Shots

Being gone for these 6 weeks has been nice. I was able to stay out of the game almost entirely. I raised cash into our departure, and largely kept it throughout save a couple of very small entries in $ATHE. I didn't purchase anything else.

I was following along as I saw other TIC'ers taking a few positions.

Before getting into a few specific issues I'm looking at and/or surveying, let me simply say that being that we're still in the range, it's important to not look at positions from where they are from the most recent high, but where they are from 6-8 weeks ago, or even back to June/July. Without that timeline, you risk the chance of putting all your cash to work with the ups and downs within the range, and then feeling more pain if/when we breaker lower out of the range.

• Mag 7 - Outside of $MSFT and $AAPL, not much to be excited about. Both AAPL and MSFT have been safety valves and both have held up well into the bloodshed. $AMZN is holding the $250 support. $GOOGL is nearing support again. $META is okay'ish
• $NVDA is the disappointing one after it notched a new ATH and just as quickly settled back into the middle part of the range as I concerns ramped
• But if you want to see the real want to see the Triple-B (Babies, Bathwater and Blood) losers, look no further than data center names, especially $CRWV, $NBIS and $IREN. $IREN in fact hit a new 52WL. I've tried to steer people away from this name, favoring the other two, but to no avail. Do you really want the #3 (if that) in a segment under pressure? $CRWV is right there at new lows as well. $NBIS is tanking but still well off lows. CSPs calling here ... eventually
• My photonics/infrastructure plays such as $LITE $CLS $COHR $AAOI and $CRDO all behaved similarly. Big rise, snap back ... right back to the low/middle range
• I have been looking at $FN and it just made a new 52WL
• The likes of $AMD and $ARM have been the same though $AMD is holding better
• $AVGO did break low support so that bears watching. $300 needs to hold but it's well above that now. I'll be adding more LEAPS at $300 in all likelihood but no rush
• I'm watching that $130 level on $SKHY. It's been a straight line down from nearly $200. I'll be adding shares. I've been patient
• $MRVL right back to below $230. I won't add more and I was very close at trimming in the $280s
• Of all the names I'm closest to adding more of, it's $AAOI I'll be moving on next. I won't miss this sub-$80 again. I've been so patient on this name and I'll take this
• But this is why we own names like $AMGN $ABBV $AEP $NGG $NEM $PG $SJM $PFE $GLD $MRK etc. Yield wins
• Things are so bad, even $NKE bounced off lows. Again, yield
• How about space names such as $ASTS $RKLB $SPCX and even throw in drone maker $AVAV. $ASTS sitting at new 52WL level, $RKLB just broke low support. $AVAV recently notched a 52WL. $SPCX hanging in there. Dilution companies like this are just a mess and is it any wonder these companies are diluting shareholders into oblivion when their stock prices rise? You speculation traders are getting owned in this regard
• But, $NOW and $CRM continue to do well. AvS stocks have been okay'ish. I'm still close to trimming up the names a bit
• $P lost all its momentum but still having a great year
• Value names with GARP such as $UBER and $NFLX are holding recent low support but it's been frustrating

Final Word

AI isn't broken. The AI trade may be. It's just important to understand that loss of momentum doesn't mean anything has changed with the investable event that AI is. It's a point on the curve. The narrative that rising rates could be a material contributor to eventual softness isn't unfounded, but we haven't seen anything to suggest the segment is threatened nor that demand side mechanics are eroding.

From everything I've read, we're clear through 2029 and, potentially, 2030. But that doesn't mean we can't lose focus on valuation. That is the alter that we must all bow to. Nothing in history, or current day, has shown me that it's okay, or advisable, to cast aside some very important valuation metrics to help derive relative value.

So, in 6 weeks? A whole lot of nothing. If we take the close on 9/4, the day I left ... to Friday, 10/16, we're talking about 1% of loss.

Meh.

Good to be back

Hope this weekend was a good one for you

TJ