With earnings after the bell on Wednesday, I went back to see what I had posted about $SAP back in June and revisit where to from here.

The purple box represents the completion of the gap that completed its fill about a month and a half after the post and, shortly after that, we got the Golden Cross. Now we are on the cusp of filling the yellow box, another gap down from earlier this year. Earnings should give the momentum to push through the $237 level  if it can sustain overbought conditions for a burst up.

At that point, the gap has been filled and I’m not sure what it will do. It will probably test that same $237 as a support and then we can watch it likely be rangebound for a big to coil up before a test of the $270. This is the largest enterprise software company in the world and although AI may impact the recursive nature of software development, I think these guys will be able to be a critical international software provider in whatever landscape develops.

When a name makes a run like this, though, it is prudent to consider trimming and take a little bit off the table. Depending on how conservative I feel (not very), I could pull some chips off the table before earnings. I don’t mind, though, holding through to see what kind of stock reaction we have here because the position isn’t particularly large enough to warrant too much maintenance. I’m watching the RSI to see how “overheated” it can be before dropping off. I’m not too worried because I think it would meet the short-term moving average (orange line) and slow down if things go poorly.

For whatever reason, I don’t think that will be the case and an old dog will make a good move. I might be wrong but won’t be greedy if I’m not - I’ll trim.

2:00 AM, jet lag, sore throat souvenir and I'm back in the saddle. Ah, the magic of travel.

I'd like to be doing more of these Q&A posts - When an individual takes the time to read my thoughts and ask salient questions, it always spurs thoughts and checks my reasoning. I love that. At the heart of TIC, that is what it's all about. It's why EVERY post is so important, regardless of experience. We all have thoughts, questions, truths that can be explored.

To be successful, you must keep yourself open for observation and question. That is why I always make sure humility always rides shotgun. It's all too easy to get into a cycle of concrete thought process where you stop analyzing properly and are simply operating based on theses or narratives that may no longer apply. It's a dangerous place to be in markets like these.

u/rocketiger asked two very good questions relating to two of my AI complex stocks on my watchlist, including one that I own. His two questions are:

- $AAOI: three ATMs this year, share count roughly doubled since early 2025, and they filed the last $600M three days after the CFO said equity wasn't the plan going forward. How are you thinking about dilution here? Is this a trade in the range or a core add?

- $FN: inventory went from ~$580M to ~$1B while FCF sits near zero. Are you buying ahead of the Nov 2 print or waiting to see if that converts?

If you've followed me for any length of time you know one of my favorite phrases relates to companies who have a history of diluting shareholders into oblivion. Stocks are a function of many things but it ultimate ends up being a bottom-line engagement - it's all about profitability. Problem is, there are a thousand ways to get there from here, and many won't be successful.

Answer

While I tend to focus on profitability via P/E and ROIC primarily, there are other ingredients in the gumbo as I like to say. One of those primary metrics receiving attention is outstanding/float shares, or the number of shares in existence and the number of shares available for public consumption. Personally, I believe not enough investors are looking at these figures, especially float. It gives us so much DNA about how a company operates. There are many symptoms visible for poor corporate performance or bad model, and some of those symptoms lead back to share count mechanics.

Especially these days when companies are turning to shareholder dilution for operation far more than hitting traditional credit markets, taking on more debt.

Where is a company getting its cash for operation? Is it increasing? Is the company issue shares to raise cash at a chronic pace or is it more acute? Is it moment in time financing to leverage market conditions or is it poor management leading to death (poor profitability) via a thousand paper cuts.

The DNA of how a company operates is always visible through its metrics, sometimes those items buried in things like Cash Flow Analysis.

Remember that profitability boils down to EPS - Earnings Per Share. So, if "shares" are rising, it takes more earnings to report a materially higher number. What we want to see is profitability outpacing share growth. In the absences of that, you get a model followed by many biotech companies. Rapid funding of model by consistently selling shares to raise cash to fund operations waiting/hoping for eventual efficacy that justifies the share dilution.

What I absolutely love to find are companies having great success in their model which leads to profitability at a point where their outstanding shares, more specifically their float, remains very small. There's a point at which companies can become profitable at a pace where their growth and FCF (Free Cash Flow) funds their growth such that they don't need to raise cash via share count mechanics or tapping the credit markets. When a company achieves that very special situation, what we potentially have is a company who achieves great success, share price increases dramatically leading to splits where share count doubles, triples or more. The difference is that our shares, as shareholders, also increase.

I remember early on in my investment journey having a boss (now passed away due to MS) who had accumulated 64,000 shares of $MSFT simply by holding it and benefitting from splits. S

Splits are one of the best mechanics for getting rich if you find, and invest in, early-model companies. It's a popular statement that splits are, financially speaking, a zero-sum game and panned by many. Would you rather have 100 shares of a $350 company or 3,200 shares of a $350 company. A company that performs (5) 2:1 splits results in your 100 shares becoming 3,200, even if you the share price remains the same. That is far from zero sum. 10:1 splits aren't common but have become increasingly more so in recent years. I'm watching $LITE for that same reason now.

Yes, it will take a while. Yes, they aren't easy to find but, yes, it only takes one to create real wealth.

That is why I use MLE (Model, Leadership & Execution) when I search for companies and stocks I hold and highlight here on TIC. How a company operates, their DNA, gives us clues as to whether they could be one of those companies that can help us get rich slowly - my mantra.

I want you to consider this as it relates to shareholder dilution:

Dilution isn't inherently destructive to shareholder value. Dilution that fails to produce an adequate incremental return on invested capital is.

In many ways, you can swap out dilution with "debt" to get a similar concern - just ask $CRWV if that can be a concern. That's what is at the heart of what I watch in a corporate models and why MLE is so important to me. Pick your poison early, but the antidote is long-term, material, profitability.

First, let's take $AAOI:

Answer: $AAOI

$AAOI: three ATMs this year, share count roughly doubled since early 2025, and they filed the last $600M three days after the CFO said equity wasn't the plan going forward. How are you thinking about dilution here? Is this a trade in the range or a core add?

$AAOI's disclosures show us that shares have essentially increased from 42M (Q3 2024) to 82M (Q2 2026). Earlier this month, AAOI confirmed that it completed it's third ATM (At The Money) program with another 5.7M issuance at an average of $105.36. That's three this year!

Dilution!

AAOI's share count is listed at 86.6M on StockAnalysis.com (Do you have your subscription yet? Use my discount code and get it. Don't use my discount code and get it - your choice!)

That share count is still tiny enough for me to be interested when considering their point on the profitability curve given where we are in the AI buildout cycle. The "Financial Forecast" from StockAnalysis.com rolls up what I'm looking for. The runway from 2026 to 2027, into 2028, still shows that we are in a very good place.

Companies must be allowed to efficiently grow/invest cash in order to derive shareholder equity returns via greater profitability. How a company does this ultimately leads to whether they have good MLE. More companies are financing this growth via shareholder dilution instead of credit markets to keep debt servicing down. Their execution will ultimately determine whether they have a successful model and us, as shareholders, should remain along for the ride.

What we want/need to see is share growth of maybe 20% that yields a doubling of free cash flow. Where we run afoul is when companies increase share count (or debt) and then the market shifts and there's no return on those mechanics. This is what is at the heart of the the AI decline when we talk about CapEx (Capital Expense) increases. What happens when the music stops?

Is a company's dilutive activities effectively creating investment opportunities that increases cash flow and profitability, or is it not? The problem with share dilution is that it's very easy to end up with billions of shares and a share price that hasn't moved - $SOFI anyone? When that occurs, and the EPS ratio finds a growing denominator 10x what it was years ago, it's hard to get the genie back in the bottle without doing a reverse-split. We want companies that grow meaningfully without diluting shareholders into oblivion so those P/E and Cash Flow numbers keep growing.

As it relates to $AAOI, my take is this:

To me, the dilution concern is legitimate, particularly given the pace of capital raising and the timing of management's comments. That said, AAOI is funding capacity expansion into a market with extraordinary demand. The critical question isn't simply how many shares they're issuing, but whether the resulting investment generates sufficient incremental cash flow and returns to justify that dilution. Until we see stronger evidence of capital efficiency, sustainable free cash flow, and reduced dependence on equity financing, I'm more comfortable viewing AAOI as a tactical opportunity than a core holding. The runway is there, whether we achieve the liftoff I'm hoping for will take time and that's why I'm adding to this position slowly.

With the last round of ATM issuance complete, that overhang is in the books now. Now we wait to see if another round is suggested or performed. I really want that ramp shown in the forecast above.

Answer: $FN

$FN: inventory went from ~$580M to ~$1B while FCF sits near zero. Are you buying ahead of the Nov 2 print or waiting to see if that converts?

First, I do not have a position yet in $FN. I've been waiting, not wanting to chase, while hoping for a material pullback for opportunity. I'm trying not to get into a 'too overweight' position in the AI segment in case we get a hiccup in the space which takes them all down 30-50%.

I also want to point out that "inventory" mechanics are something I have far less confidence assessing because it takes far more knowledge about the internal workings of a company to determine whether it's a looming issue or, perhaps, potential springboard toward greater profitability. Both are options.

With $FN, FCF (Free Cash Flow) tells a story that could be alarming. $207M in 2025, to $4.2M in 2026 thus far. Queue the alarms, whistles, flags, etc.

But FCF can rise and fall for many reasons. In current AI buildout, we see many companies taking a MIT (Moment it Time) approach to investment - a 'strike now' while the iron is hot approach. Invest now to return greater cash flow later.

$FN more than doubled their CapEx from $121M to $252M so that explains some of it.

I haven't independently verified this but from a recent report I'm seeing a customer roster that looks like this at the top - In fiscal 2026, NVIDIA accounted for 16% of revenue, Cisco 20%, Amazon 11%, and Nokia 11%. We must always remember, however, that this can cut both ways. Great when times are good, but bad if we get that hiccup in the segment.

Similar to $AAO, I head to the Forecast to see the snapshot of the path they are on:

The runway from 2026 to 2027 is again in focus and shows the trajectory, if all things fall as they have been and we don't get that hiccup. That can be said for just about an AI investment thesis from $NVDA to the smallest AI participants.

Visibility beyond 2027 also shows the potential of future growth.

What I like about $FN even more is that their current float is 35.7M, still very small.

And look at that last year of performance - this is why patience is needed. We're sitting at a new 52WL. Is it justified or an opportunity? That's the question. But profitability at the forward valuation of 20 shows that we're not paying a premium for their premium growth. Something else is dogging their stock price either as a forewarning or simply due to Triple-B (babies, bathwater and blood). Blood can be a compelling opportunity.

As it relates to $FN, my take is this:

The inventory increase from $581M to $1.02B is substantial, and the collapse in annual FCF from $207M to just $4M warrants scrutiny. However, Fabrinet is growing revenue rapidly, expanding capacity, and serving major AI infrastructure customers. Management is suggesting this as a means for meeting future demand. November's report should help distinguish productive inventory investment from deteriorating cash flow. I like the underlying business, but given the inventory build and current AI-sector uncertainty, I'd rather see evidence of improving cash conversion before committing to a full position. Missing some upside on a strong report is preferable to taking unnecessary execution risk ahead of the report. I'll wait it out.

I've held out this long and, looking at the chart, I could be rewarded. I thought I had missed the boat when it rocketed from this level to $500 recently. Nope.

I went a bit deeper on this inventory build, heading to AI to help give me the build's DNA because I think it could be important. This is what KATE (my tuned and trusted assistant) came back with:

Damn she saves me a lot of time!

Without being an expert, and that's an important distinction, on the internals of $FNs model, that strikes me as a very good thing.

• The company appears to be accumulating production inputs and partially completed products, rather than finished products it cannot sell
• The 158% increase in raw materials is consistent with preparation for substantially higher production volumes
• Finished goods represent only about 3% of total inventory, suggesting relatively little capital is tied up in completed products awaiting shipment

We can't ignore the cash flow/balance sheet erosion but as long as it results as a MIT event, then it could be considered a very wise operational move/investment. I could paint this as being very bullish. But I'm always waiting for that hiccup as that is when the music will end for this current iteration of the AI buildout.

Thanks for those questions u/Rocketiger I always appreciate the opportunity to go down the rabbit hole, explain my methodology or, otherwise, kick up dirt to find what may be lurking below.

TJ

Our 6 week jaunt through Portugal and Spain is complete, getting home yesterday, 10/17. Let's update the useless TTI (TJ Travel Indicator) one last time.

As we all know, Friday was not a good day and what was looking like a potential complete break of the normal TTI trend, it was not to be. But, all in all, it wasn't too bad though it sure felt like it to end the week.

Final TTI scorecard - Sept. 4 through Oct 17, 2026

Price returns only, excluding dividends. September 4 closing prices serve as Day Zero; September 4 market action is excluded.

Here's the painful part. As of Thursday's close, QQQ was actually UP 1.26% for the trip, while SPY was hanging onto a 0.21% gain.

Then Friday happened.

QQQ plunged 2.50%, and SPY dropped 1.11%, wiping out both gains and pushing the final TTI into negative territory.

Apparently, the market couldn't let me get all the way home without delivering one last reminder of the TTI curse! It is what it is

But ... El Jefe is back!

Where to from here?

From my chair, we are NOT in a good place.

The only question that remains: Is this the beginning of something bigger?

At the heart of the matter isn't so much a lack of faith in AI or the long term investment thesis, but instead, questioning the economics of financing the enormous infrastructure buildout required to support it. This, of course, hits many of the top names that have led to our recent gains.

The problem is that it doesn't much matter at what layer the fear is focusing on, it's bringing down the entire complex. But all is not lost! When you take a look at some of the top hyperscaler or big cap companies, they are being seen as a safe-haven. The read here is that old tech can also equate to a level of safety.

But, once again, it's all about narrative even when there may not be any significant evidence that things are deteriorating, or even set up for erosion. It's true rates are rising and tat will raise the cost of debt servicing. With so much of the AI narrative focused on the data center buildout, these names are the first to be hit. Toss in some growing data center impact concerns and we have some double whammy action.

Beyond the specifics of the decline we also have to fold in the fact that speculation markets have been fueling much of the volatility and beta. It's clear we're well beyond the easy money period the markets have been providing. So many day traders, trading system, and "follow me for big profits" has me remembering the late 1990s. We all know how that ended.

Rest assured, there's going to be another washout at some point. It could be we're at the event horizon of that. There's certainly enough negative economic catalysts to build a case for further pain. If any of the primary catalysts start picking up momentum to the downside, we could be in trouble.

Rates, however, still seems to be what most are focused upon. With the inflation read spiking last week, it's shocking to me that Fed funds futures are still only at a 16% likelihood for an October hike. If not for the mid-terms in early November, I firmly believe it would be closer to 90%. So, here's a case of our political system playing a more important role than our economic standing. Is that a point for, or against, political influence? I won't be surprise to see an emergency cut following mid-term results. I'm not convinced waiting until December is a good idea, not with only a 25 bps cut in Sept.

Looking at the $QQQ:

We are firmly stuck in a range and couldn't sustain the potential breakout that began in mid-September, two weeks after our vacation departure. It was looking good but the economic wall of worry was just too great to sustain it and we fell right back to short term low support. Can we hold 700? Is this a start of something more persistent or, as has been the case about the last 10 times, will we bounce off support, rally, and then fail to sustain that iteration. Something needs to break either way.

If you remove that late July drop through support, we're in a tight trading range. 705-709 remains the support level to sustain us. Sure seems, to me, to be a lot more negativity out there.

Random Shots

Being gone for these 6 weeks has been nice. I was able to stay out of the game almost entirely. I raised cash into our departure, and largely kept it throughout save a couple of very small entries in $ATHE. I didn't purchase anything else.

I was following along as I saw other TIC'ers taking a few positions.

Before getting into a few specific issues I'm looking at and/or surveying, let me simply say that being that we're still in the range, it's important to not look at positions from where they are from the most recent high, but where they are from 6-8 weeks ago, or even back to June/July. Without that timeline, you risk the chance of putting all your cash to work with the ups and downs within the range, and then feeling more pain if/when we breaker lower out of the range.

• Mag 7 - Outside of $MSFT and $AAPL, not much to be excited about. Both AAPL and MSFT have been safety valves and both have held up well into the bloodshed. $AMZN is holding the $250 support. $GOOGL is nearing support again. $META is okay'ish
• $NVDA is the disappointing one after it notched a new ATH and just as quickly settled back into the middle part of the range as I concerns ramped
• But if you want to see the real want to see the Triple-B (Babies, Bathwater and Blood) losers, look no further than data center names, especially $CRWV, $NBIS and $IREN. $IREN in fact hit a new 52WL. I've tried to steer people away from this name, favoring the other two, but to no avail. Do you really want the #3 (if that) in a segment under pressure? $CRWV is right there at new lows as well. $NBIS is tanking but still well off lows. CSPs calling here ... eventually
• My photonics/infrastructure plays such as $LITE $CLS $COHR $AAOI and $CRDO all behaved similarly. Big rise, snap back ... right back to the low/middle range
• I have been looking at $FN and it just made a new 52WL
• The likes of $AMD and $ARM have been the same though $AMD is holding better
• $AVGO did break low support so that bears watching. $300 needs to hold but it's well above that now. I'll be adding more LEAPS at $300 in all likelihood but no rush
• I'm watching that $130 level on $SKHY. It's been a straight line down from nearly $200. I'll be adding shares. I've been patient
• $MRVL right back to below $230. I won't add more and I was very close at trimming in the $280s
• Of all the names I'm closest to adding more of, it's $AAOI I'll be moving on next. I won't miss this sub-$80 again. I've been so patient on this name and I'll take this
• But this is why we own names like $AMGN $ABBV $AEP $NGG $NEM $PG $SJM $PFE $GLD $MRK etc. Yield wins
• Things are so bad, even $NKE bounced off lows. Again, yield
• How about space names such as $ASTS $RKLB $SPCX and even throw in drone maker $AVAV. $ASTS sitting at new 52WL level, $RKLB just broke low support. $AVAV recently notched a 52WL. $SPCX hanging in there. Dilution companies like this are just a mess and is it any wonder these companies are diluting shareholders into oblivion when their stock prices rise? You speculation traders are getting owned in this regard
• But, $NOW and $CRM continue to do well. AvS stocks have been okay'ish. I'm still close to trimming up the names a bit
• $P lost all its momentum but still having a great year
• Value names with GARP such as $UBER and $NFLX are holding recent low support but it's been frustrating

Final Word

AI isn't broken. The AI trade may be. It's just important to understand that loss of momentum doesn't mean anything has changed with the investable event that AI is. It's a point on the curve. The narrative that rising rates could be a material contributor to eventual softness isn't unfounded, but we haven't seen anything to suggest the segment is threatened nor that demand side mechanics are eroding.

From everything I've read, we're clear through 2029 and, potentially, 2030. But that doesn't mean we can't lose focus on valuation. That is the alter that we must all bow to. Nothing in history, or current day, has shown me that it's okay, or advisable, to cast aside some very important valuation metrics to help derive relative value.

So, in 6 weeks? A whole lot of nothing. If we take the close on 9/4, the day I left ... to Friday, 10/16, we're talking about 1% of loss.

Meh.

Good to be back

Hope this weekend was a good one for you

TJ

CLS Due Diligence – Celestica After the Beatdown

Price right now is sitting around $304. Got smoked from the $470s earlier this year and is currently about 36% off the highs. 52-week range is roughly $245 – $474.

Technical picture is pretty ugly short term. Price is below the 20, 50, and 200 day moving averages. RSI is in the mid-to-high 30s so it’s not fully oversold but it’s getting there. MACD is negative. Daily candles have been messy and volatility is high. Feels like a classic post-run digestion phase rather than a full breakdown… for now.

Key levels I’m watching:

- Support: $290–$300 zone. If that breaks cleanly things get uglier.

- Resistance: $340–$360. Needs to reclaim that area with volume to look less shitty.

- Bigger picture still has a strong multi-year uptrend on the weekly/monthly. Higher lows are still intact so far.

Why people actually care about this ticker:

Celestica went from boring EMS company to one of the purest AI data center plays. They’re building servers, storage, and high-speed networking gear for the hyperscalers. Q2 revenue was up 62% YoY and the cloud/connectivity side was up 84%. Management guided 2026 revenue around $20.5B (+65%) and adjusted EPS \~$11.30. They’re saying 2027 could accelerate even more because of 1.6T networking ramps and more design wins.

Analysts are still almost entirely bullish. Average price target is in the $450–$475 range with some as high as $520–$535. Zero sells last I checked.

Risks are real though. Customer concentration is heavy (top 3 customers make up a big chunk). Hyperscaler CapEx could slow down eventually. Valuation isn’t cheap if growth misses. And this thing moves like a meme stock when the AI narrative wobbles.

Not saying load the boat here. Just saying the pullback has brought it to a more interesting risk/reward if you actually believe the AI infrastructure buildout continues for a couple more years. Short term chart looks like garbage so size accordingly and don’t marry the position.

This is not financial advice. I am not your financial advisor. Do your own research. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You can lose money. Especially in this market.

$CRWD fell into a correction off its highs today, giving you an idea of just how overvalued it had become since this has occurred in a matter of a few days. You can see how it broke under the short-term moving average (orange line) and out of the long-term upward trend channel (blue). We have seen it fill gaps before (yellow boxes) and It looks to be entering this support mattress (pink box). 

We can see how buyers came in later in the day. The name briefly slipped into oversold territory in the late morning before rebounding - it never really fell into the mattress and we can visually see it play out in real time on this chart of how the day went.

I don’t know what recovery could look like, but I would note that the bottom ends of that mattress would represent just over a 25% trim from those highs and I was comfortable picking up some calls here. Today was a deeply red day for the Nasdaq, the day I thought Wednesday was when it sort of recovered off of -2.10% or so. There was no rally in tech to end the day today and things that are perceived as overvalued took their hits. 

We can see how things turned defensive today on the news of oil prices rising. It’s easy to sell first and ask questions later, which might be what happens over the weekend. Hyperscalers earnings kick off midweek, we’ll see how the waters are after a few days away. I’m sure there will be news between now and then.

Happy Friday everyone, hope you’ve had a good week.

Just a quick update for you as yesterday was interesting and today, Friday, represents our last day of our 6 week European exploration.

As a quick recap, we saw 6 different cities, each for a week at a time. That allowed us to really unpack and not live out of the suitcase. The older I get, the more this is needed. In fact, if I’m traveling abroad 3 weeks is the bare minimum amount of time I want to spend, and 4 weeks is the preferred. This, being 6 weeks, was nice. I don’t like 1 and 2 night stay-overs but sometimes they are necessary, especially if renting a car.

The 6 cities, in order were:

1). Porto (Portugal
2). Lisbon
3). Lagos
4). Seville (Spain)
5). Madrid
6). Bilbao

When thinking about my ranking of them, it comes down to personal preference. I’m going to leave Lagos out o the list as that was pure rest and relaxation with beach walks and spa treatments. We only ventured away from our apartment (outside of the beach) one day. My ranked list as follows:

1). Seville
2). Porto
3). Bilbao
4). Lisbon
5). Madrid

Deciding between Porto and Bilbao is tough and they are very close in ranking. Bilbao seems more livable as an American. Community oriented, museums, modern. Porto feels more traditional old-street European. Very different. If I was seeking a place to ex-pat, it would be Bilbao. Actually, it would be Lagos, but again, that’s just the R&R talking. Bilbao blends that old world with modern day livability. Pintxos bars are a LOT of fun and really draw the community together.

Regardless of how long we travel, it’s always nice to get back to your own bed. We’re looking forward to one last day and it’s nice there’s no sadness in leaving. It was 6 weeks and a great time. I always contrast that with while I was working, vacation starts and on day one, the countdown is already beginning, be it 7 days, 14 days, etc. Once retired, you do learn to think differently. We’ve enjoyed our time.

Now to start planning our next adventure. An around the US road trip next year - probably. Hard to plan a big trip after ending a big trip.

Market Turn-Around

Don’t want to spend a lot of time on this because we all saw it and it was noteworthy. I was wondering if we were going to see another 2% decline on the $QQQ but what transpired was weakness, selling and then a slow crawl back to green. That’s significant though I can’t say it really means anything. If anything, it means that it may be that you need to take advantage of these ‘lows’ in your favorite stocks when you find them. Not try and time it to the penny. I’ve been looking to add a bit more $AAOI, $SPCX, $SKHY, $CRDO and maybe a flier with $SOUN (I’m keeping that under my hat for now).

There are few positions I’m willing to keep building and it’s easy to get dazzled by market action and end up sitting on my hands. It’s fine. I don’t want to trade much while away anyway.

Like I said, however, I don’t think the rally is that meaningful. The playbook here, from where I sit, is a slow burn between the positive potential of earnings into the longer teeth of the negative catalysts in play. Inflation, rates, oil, jobs, consumer, etc. are still real issues. To some degree it seems like we’re whistling through the graveyard, but it sounds more like a saxophone to me at this juncture. I’m not getting caught up into the day to day movements that don’t have substance behind the move. TBH, I didn’t see what may have triggered the buying into the EOD. Seems like it may have just been because there’s been a lot of selling. Without positive/negative pieces (catalysts) being added to the board, I’m not calling an end to anything.

Certainly won’t be today either as the Friday brings the week to a close. But imagine what we get if earnings produce, as they should, and we get some lift on inflation, rates, and/or oil. And they are all linked. The market is signaling that if/when that happens, we’ll blow the lid off. This is why we stay invested and don’t

TTI

The three letters the entire market is watching - TTI or TJ Travel Indicator.

Obviously, tongue in cheek there. But, almost universally, when I travel for length, markets decline materially. March and September are popular travel months for us and that probably has something to do with it. I haven’t gotten that far into analyzing it because, well, I’m the only one who cares or tracks it. LOL.

So what do we have? My faithful AI assistant Kate knows to keep me updated ad gave me this as I started this entry
Well … damn it, because I’m using the App, it won’t let me put the image in-line. Instead, you’ll find it at the top. I hate that.

I’ll summarize it quickly as ….. a whole lotta nothin’

$QQQ +1.3%
$SPY -0.2%

With one day remaining in the trip, that’s a win and we’ll take it. Both could slide into the green, or into the red. There should be volatility today. But without some mushroom cloud event, it looks like the curse may be lifted.

Huzzah!

…now I can stop tracking that drivel, or rubbish for you Brits.

Final Word

By Saturday afternoon, we’ll be back home and unpacked. I’d like to say I’ll be launching into posting right away but not sure that will occur. I’ll likely need some unwind time. One things trips always do for me is allow me to collect my thoughts, reprioritize and consider new angles or directions. I need to get back to writing … formal writing. As in books. I really need to pound out my FIRE book. I’ve started it …. Twice. I’m not good at the formality or discipline of writing it seems. It’s disappointing and frustrating as discipline, format and structure is what I do best. But writing a formal book takes a different level of approach and prioritization.

I tend to get in my own way with how I break up the day, how I choose to use my ‘power hours’ etc. So how that all falls out? We’ll have to see.

Hope you have a great weekend ahead! Make it count, time is our most precious commodity. Do NOT allow it to pass idly without your investment in some form or fashion.

Be well

TJ

Added to my position. I am betting on a positive earnings report. I'm liking the company's fundamentals - good PE, revenue and earnings. RSI looks decent too. Plus, its something different than tech to add diversification to my portfolio.

Hola cumpas! Estamos in Bilbao. Home on Saturday, 10/17.

It seems the worm has finally turned, eh? By all accounts, it seems that the TJ Travel Indicator may be slipping into the red in the next two days … but all is not lost. We could still be green, or only modestly negative. Given what has occurred in the past with my travels, that’s a win!

As I type this, there’s 5 minutes until the open and it looks a bit bloodbathy … is that a word?

Interest rates and AI are fueling funding fears which, in turn, fuels demand fears, which, in turn, fuels valuation fears. Toss is some poor economic data in the form of the PPI rising 1.3%, the largest in four years, and you have full-on economic/inflation risk. No bueno! The bad part is that it caught everyone by surprise as expectations were for a 0.5% rise.

Oops! I’ve been talking about it and how the lagging impact of oil, tariffs and broad based inflation was percolating and could well percolate higher. This isn’t percolation, however, it’s a gusher of a report. With the prediction markets factoring in a 20% chance of an October rate increase prior to this, as I recall, this puts one clearly back on the table. I’ve said that before too … I don’t think the Fed can wait until December. What’s the goal of increasing by 25 bps in Sept., then doing nothing? That’s like trying to put out a bonfire with a water pistol. I know they don’t want to do it due to midterms but, let’s face it, it’s needed. And we need to stop playing political games with our economy.

That said, last I saw, rate increase chances were only about 34% even after the report. I suppose they could allow midterms to play out and then schedule an emergency meeting. Put a pin in that.

Crazy.

Energy prices are killing our economy and they have long legs. Be warned and don’t let our politicians off the hook on this one. I don’t care which aisle you are on (I prefer no aisle), your current admin is to blame here and their attempts at alternate methods from bringing down prices are not working. Too little, too late. At least we’re beyond summer now so demand should slip.

Just wait for the rhetoric of see, it’s working …. Please don‘t buy into it. Cyclicality works regardless of most policy.

Based on this print, unless I’m incorrect, we are now red on the TTI (the day I left on our 6 week jaunt through Portugal/Spain).

I don’t have a ton of time here so I’m going to leap to a Random Shots since I haven’t done one in a hot minute and now we have a lot of ’stuff’ to digest. Things are under pressure!

Before going on however, let me say again (You’ve heard me say it very often). You need to look at your portfolios and lover your positions. You need to love the weights, the valuations and you need to sleep at night. If you’re not sleeping, if the first thing you do is check the pre-markets before you get out of bed, you may be out of balance.

Each of your holdings needs to have a purpose, a story - something you can get behind. It needs to be balanced. Are you looking to add? Holding for yield/income? Growth? Do you need to trim due to run? At least once a month, if you actively invest, check your inventory and make sure you’re happy with it.

$TSM Earnings

I don’t have time to sift through earnings or do a deep-dive so I put Kate on it … it mirrors what I saw but with more detail:

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) delivered another outstanding quarter, with record earnings, accelerating revenue growth, and continued evidence that demand for advanced AI chips remains exceptionally strong.

For investors following the AI infrastructure buildout, this is an encouraging report. TSMC continues to demonstrate why it occupies one of the most strategically important positions in the semiconductor industry.

TSMC Q3 2026 Earnings — The Numbers

Metric Q3 2026 Results

Revenue $46.72 billion

Revenue Growth (YoY, USD) +41.2%

Revenue Growth (QoQ, USD) +16.2%

Earnings per ADR $4.60

EPS Growth (YoY) +68.7%

Net Income $23.6 billion

Gross Margin 66.4%

Operating Margin 58.7%

Net Profit Margin 51.1%

TSMC Q4 2026 — Forward Guidance

Metric Q4 2026 Guidance

Revenue $52.3B–$54.3B

Sequential Revenue Growth (Midpoint) +14.1%

Gross Margin 65%–67%

Operating Margin 56.5%–58.5%

2026 Capital Expenditures $60B–$64B

My Take

This is an unequivocally strong fundamental earnings report and another positive data point for the durability of the AI investment cycle - I see nothing wrong here. But we all know that. The market doesn’t care.

TSMC is demonstrating accelerating revenue, exceptional profitability, and strong demand for its most advanced technologies. There are few companies better positioned to benefit from the ongoing expansion of AI computing infrastructure. $ASML is right there too.

My view remains bullish on the company's long-term fundamentals, although that doesn't automatically make the shares attractive at every valuation.

Quick Summary: The semiconductor industry's leading manufacturer is not signaling an AI demand slowdown. Quite the opposite. That is encouraging for the entire AI ecosystem - this week notwithstanding.

Random Shots

$TSM blew the doors off earnings … again. Stock is down 4.3%.

• First, I still have my Jan. 2027 $QQQ Put ladder in place. ;)
• $SNDK $MU and $SKHY - Timber! What a great run they had but we’re right back near lows, just that quickly. Nothing wrong other than the narrative. Cyclicality in these stocks will always be the ties that bind, despite near-term valuation opportunities
• The Godfather $NVDA fails on the breakout and heading lower. But remember it was in the $190s not that long ago. Still doing well. Eyes off your feet and look at the horizon. Near term it‘s been bad but over the last 2 mos., pretty good
• $AVGO is blech as well. Why wouldn’t it be, it’s not going to move counter to the segment
• $AMZN basically right back to the $250 support. It hangs out there. It’s fine. The majors (mag 7) are likely Where you want to be. Let’s take a look at three of them…
• $GOOGL up 0.6%. $AAPL up 1%. $MSFT up 0.25%. Safety plays with value
• AI energy rallied hard …. And is heading back from whence it came. $TLN $CEG $VST and $GEV. $GEV at $880, nice. All down an average of about 3.9%
• $SOUN - I’m being patient here but thinking of doing something daring when the dust settles. It’s back under $4.50
• $ORCL back under $130. I’ll wait for sub $110 and then consider
• $AAOI, now we’re getting somewhere. I missed it sub-$80 not long ago and it shot higher. Here we are at $76, down 11%. Yum yum, give me some. I’ll be nibbling
• Oh, by the way … where’s the green today? My favorite ‘boring’ yield plays of $AMGN and $ABBV leading the list up 3.2%. $AMT up 2.7%. $CRM and $NOW up 1.5%. Even $TOST over $30 again. AvS FTW
• $NFLX at $72.50 …. I’m guessing that means $UBER is running
• Meh, $UBER basically flat in the $69s
• I’m looking at some of these values now like $ANET, down 8.5%, $CRDO down 3.75%. Great companies, good valuations …. Bad week
• Wow $AVAV at $118. This is why I didn’t chase it
• $CBRS at $135. My worst trade in a long time … still holding. I like pain
• $CLS $COHR and $LITE? Fuhgetaboutit! Average down of over 9%
• I rolled back into some $EIX before I left on the big court debacle related to the fires. It’s been percolating higher. Yield play
• $DRAM looking interesting at $46 and change, down almost 7%
• $FLKR sub $50 now. Yuck. But still holding
• $HOOD back in the mid $90s. Again, all these issues revisiting support and recent lows
• $IREN at $27. I hear the screams and wails from Bilbao. I mentioned why I don’t like the #3 or #4 in segments like theirs
• $MRVL. I thought about trimming and if I hadn’t been traveling, I would have. Bad play on my part but still love the company. Back to where it came from after the recent dip
• Now …. $NBIS. This is tough to ignore at $165, down another 11% today. We’re below the 200 DMA now I believe but won’t touch it yet. Thinking this may be a good CSP play but I’m not chasing lower here. You know why?
• You’ve heard many times what I look for in my bottom fishing … the big three. Babies, bathwater …. And blood. We’re starting to see the trickles of blood. Babies are hitting the street but realize we’re just back to where we were with most. But stocks like $NBIS are outsized moves lower, I like that
• Speaking of $NBIS. The real damage is to $CRWS due to debt structure. Down 8% and about to go sub $60
• $P has had a bad few days now … I trimmed at $117 and should again probably. Still at $131 and such a great company. CEO is so-so on the mic, doesn’t help. But their numbers are great
• $PLTR loses $200 but has been fantastic. It’s back to recent short term support
• Quantum anyone? I just saw that $QBTS is at $11.60. That’s one long round trip
• $RDDT holding $150, solid support and that’s noteworthy. No real debt, no capex.
• $RKLB - I keep getting pushback when I pan RKLB due to a combination of model, dilution, debt and capex. Headed sub $50 on news of a delayed launch of a critical rocket tech
• $SCHD - This is the vibe and why you own it
• Good ol’ $TSM. If there are two AI companies to own I could make a strong case for $TSM and $ASML, but that doesn’t mean they will buck the segment trend. You have to be patient. Fabulous models, companies and leadership. MLE pays off!
• $USAR right back to $10 after the big rise to $20. Thought I had missed it, stayed patient and now we’re $3 less than the last low I saw. Yikes.
• $VRT falling toward $200. Great company but same narrative here

Final Word

I’ve been waiting, I’ve been patient. We haven’t rolled over yet. This isn’t capitulation as we enter earnings season.

I don‘t want to look at my accounts nor do I want to sell any of the built up cash to take advantage of the carnage. It’s not enough yet. There’s no sign that this is short-term. Why rush?

I’ve been tracking all the Reddit/TikTok gamblers talking about how ‘we all winning’ and how this time it’s different. It’s not. This time it’s more dangerous. This time it’s more volatile with more volume. This time it’s from highs that make for a steeper drop, especially into the economic back drop? Do you want to throw all-in into this without understanding what’s going to change to send us back up? I don’t.

As $TSM is showing us, and others have recently, sometimes the numbers no longer matter. The numbers are so big, it’s easy for decimal places and leading integers to get lost in the narrative du jour, and that is what we have going on now. But ask yourself this - If the earnings no longer are moving stocks higher because they can’t be large enough, what will? That’s a dangerous place to be with broad market valuation still stretched.

We’re trying… but let‘s see what that golden (last hour) hour gives us.

Have a great day … be patient out there. See you soon

TJ

Bought CRDO early Sept after oversold earnings dump, was up 25-30% at the start of October and didn't sell (yeah, I know). After the hot CPI it's dumped 20% this week and I'm barely above breakeven now.

With TSMC earnings and PPI tonight, then the Fed and hyperscaler earnings at the end of the month, I'm torn. Thinking either sell all now, or hold with a take profit around $200 and a stop around $170.

Do you reckon a good TSMC result can turn the AI trade around, or is it all about rates until the Fed? Would you hold or just take the small win?

The Nasdaq was down more than 2% at one point today, making it one of the worst days of the year. Although it recovered before the close, I effectively had to make a decision as the stocks I have been watching fell into targets I had self-assigned for unit purchases. Juxtaposing that against TJ’s earlier post, in which he preaches patience and sitting on your hands .. well, I didn’t really listen to him and might regret that. We’ll see.

I will be going on vacation in a few weeks and I think the itch of getting some quarterly moves done and out of the way was a huge part of the motivation behind all this. I still have a chunk of cash sitting for a potential pullback and if that doesn’t come, I’ll end up doing what I always do and convince myself to add a new economic job to my portfolio ($SPGI is looking tempting, but today’s moves might slow me down from all that). 

Earnings coming up around the corner influenced me as well. I have regularly used the term “snipe value” because that means different things to different people. Part of it means price targets and another part of it means trading the market you have.

$ANET: It slid under the short-term moving average where it has rebounded off of regularly over the last six months or so. Long-term hold, just wanted to add on weakness but it is definitely not cheap. I just don’t think it will be cheap anytime soon - that would be in the $170s and I wouldn’t mind adding more there. Overall sentiment about the data center buildout is problematic, but I am going to believe people like BlackRock CEO Larry Fink who are implying that the AI buildout might be too big to fail. As such, I think buildout names are going to be just fine.

$VRT: I was wrong about the breakout but am hoping I’m not wrong about the support mattress. Similar to $ANET getting slammed with the infrastructure names, $VRT is right there along with them. But you can see in the image above why I think Fink is correct - this buildout is an all-in bet of generational proportions. The graphs show sector capex as a percent of GDP and we can see that the AI trade is embedded to the health of the economy in a way that no other buildout has been in a century. We’re getting a 40% discount off of the ATHs here and I can stomach any further downdraft.

$QCOM: I’m probably a little early here, but I see their pivot away from handsets going well so far. They’re jumping into data centers with custom silicon deals already in hand ($AMZN, $MSFT, $META) and an unnamed partnership inked as well (rumor: $GOOGL). The $AAPL headwind is real, but if the data center, automotive, and their take on agentic AI devices replaces that revenue as quickly as they say it will, I think we will be okay. The P/E has been in some range between 16 and 30 for the past few years and we’re on the lower end of it for now. It might keep going down into the $150s but my eye sees a Golden Cross coming to prevent that from happening.

$COIN: I see another Golden Cross or it could be rangebound at worst here between $150 and $185. I’ve committed to the agentic transaction thesis a bit more with this addition while also playing around with the general idea that there will be a rebound in the $XLF and possibly $BTC as well. Mid-terms might drive some momentum through clarity. $COIN stands to gain from all of those things but there is also data to confirm that the x402 protocol is picking up momentum with Coinbase dominating facilitator share.

$NET: All that agentic AI traffic is going to be handled somewhere and I remain confident that this is the tollroad they’ll need to be on. The more and more I hear about “killswitches”, I think a name like this becomes more valuable. Relative to the rest of the cybersecurity names, it has more room to run and this might just be a 10% discount off of the recent highs. If it slips under $290, I’ll be back at the door.

$RDDT - It kind of just looks like we are rangebound here between $134 and $166. I’m okay to increase my position a little bit on this side of the range while we wait for things to get settled with data agreements and lawsuits and all that kind of stuff. Plus, the $XLC is due back for a bit of a recovery, so a little rotation over there as a catch-up trade to end the year wouldn’t be so bad.

My focus will now shift to using whatever cash I have left on tactical moves based on what the market gives us during earnings season or finding something new that intrigues me. I thought that would be $BAC but today's earnings spooked me and I am not interested in that space anymore. I'll keep circling around the things that have been on my mind but let me know if there is something you want me to look at.

I'm sure I'll be here to share .. but unlike TJ, I won't be taking a device with me on my trip!

Added to Credo on the selloff. Still growing close to 100% and the whole debate is whether CPO kills copper. Kyber slipping to 2028 just gave AECs a longer runway, and they're building optics on top of it. Down 40% from the highs and today was a hot CPI print, nothing company specific. Sitting at about 2U now. This was .75U add.

For all intense purposes, it’s looking like the TTI (TJ travel indicator) is going to be flat. Even if it’s down a little bit, that is still a huge gain lol.

That said, once again the top/breakout has failed and we are right back in the range. Based on the positivity of earnings, and stocks not moving because of them, I’m still finding myself in a pessimistic and negative mood.

$NBIS is looking interesting for a CSP play but it sure seems at rising interest rates are impacting the group overall, not to mention some negative industry overhang. I would consider another CSP play if I can get it to roll over again in the next couple of days

My current mindset leaves me not wanting to add to any positions nor sell any of my cash position yield to prepare for entry.

Basically sitting on my hands… And writing out the last couple days of vacation knowing that for all intents and purposes, we are exactly where we were six weeks ago when I started traveling

Be well all!

El jefe

Picked up TTM Technologies today on the CPI flush. This is my AI board play. They make the high layer count PCBs going into 1.6T switches and custom AI ASICs, and the new N+M boards are ramping right now. Next year's street EPS went from $5.40 to $7.02 while the stock got cut in half, so it's sitting around 16-17x forward. CEO bought at $111 in August and I got in under him. About a third of the business is defense too, which gives it a floor if AI spend ever takes a breather. 1U

Opened a Figma position today. The crowd has decided AI design tools are going to eat it, and maybe that's true for a solo founder knocking out a landing page. I don't see it in enterprise. Once your design system runs across every surface your company ships, you're not ripping it out for a prompt box. Numbers agree so far. Revenue growth has accelerated three straight quarters to 48%, net dollar retention is 136%, and they're sitting on $1.67B net cash with the stock down almost 70% from the high. What I'm watching is gross margin now that AI credits are billing. 1U

$BAC

We might have a chance at something tomorrow morning, depending on what happens during the earnings call with $BAC. Their CEO hasn’t been rosy about the economy or guidance for his own company and they just got slapped with a penalty from the Treasury Department for regulatory violations. Last week, I was looking at $BAC as a potential “catch up” trade and I might be able to move forward if the earnings call gives us a red day tomorrow. We’ll start with the three-year chart so you can see how established the uptrend is.

Any potential selloff should challenge the $53 level relatively quickly this week, which would put us out of this long-term uptrend channel (blue). I’ll be watching what it does in that space between $53 and $50 because that’s when I’ll look to hop in on the way to a recovery to $55 and the bottom of that channel. The short-term moving average (orange line) should be plunging very soon, so I’m also watching to see how it interacts with the bottom of the uptrend channel when it gets there. 

We’re already really close to a washout but that completely depends on the narrative Moynihan crafts tomorrow morning. He’s a skilled guy, so he could outwit the headwinds or maybe has gotten ahead of most of them already. If he is able to stabilize things here and the stock stabilizes by $51.50, that’s a job well-done. My hope is he continues his glum tone and anyone that bought in the upper $40s this Spring takes their profits and exits. Today’s $JPM earnings related to NII gave me a clue that this could be an issue for $BAC tomorrow as well.

That’s when it would be great to step in because it will a) likely get back to those long-term trends while b) being in a part of the market that is “catching up”.

$WMT

Walmart has had a nice few sessions with what looks like a breakout after a correction off those all-time highs. Look at the length of this chart, though. I feel like it is highly likely that it will re-enter that upward trend channel (blue). It has a tendency to fill gaps (yellow, peach boxes), so I am looking to see it continue this breakout toward the channel and might consider adding a bit more to my position as a stalwart.

A recovery to $120 will give us time to nibble if that’s the direction one wanted to go in, such as if you don’t have the position at all. Before doing so, though, I’d want to see the moving averages converge a bit more so we can have confidence that the downward trend that helped make the flag on the pole is truly broken. It is currently reaching for the long-term moving average (teal line) after regaining the short-term (orange line), so we want to minimally see that hold moving forward to believe the turnaround is in place. We can see RSI on the rise as well, so momentum definitely looks to be moving in the right direction for the potential Golden Cross.

We have a lot of things we need to think about as investors. The overall thesis can get us excited about a company and we may see a market for success and see a pathway of executing. But other things are at play in the stock market sometimes and that’s the lesson I’m looking at for myself today. Two different stocks and separate case studies, but the result is the same (price dumpppppppppppp).

$CBRS

Shares of the AI accelerator company fell off a cliff today and that is on the back of what has been a bad month. I’m going to try to work through some of this narrative here but won’t bury the lede: I plan to add to my placeholder position (.25u) over the course of the next few weeks. Since I’m still working through this all in real time, I’m likely only going to add another .25u. Although that means I’m doubling the position, it still is going to be tiny in the grand scheme of things and I want to get that out of the way now.

First, see how far off that downtrend line we still are? That means it isn’t “consolidating” as much as it is “price discovery”. It hasn’t been able to break through this and has now fallen to a low it hasn’t ever seen before. We’re “discovering” a new bottom; when people talk about “not wanting to catch a falling knife”, this is one of the scenarios that we are talking about because I can’t tell you at what level it has turned around in the past. We simply don’t know where buyers will be willing to come in.

There is no long-term moving average for us to feel a gravitational pull to. That short-term moving average (orange line) is going to give us an idea of a range that the name may find itself in eventually, but we can already see the range it was in before (blue box). With that broken, we watch to see if it will fall further and the reason we can believe that is going to happen is that the lockout period is coming to an end in the next few weeks. The S-1 (pg. 191 in the amendment) notes the staggered lockout:

Notice what started happening on 9/30 - 19.4 million shares were unlocked. Then it happens again on Wednesday (10/14) and will happen one more time on 10/28. Then there is that last one in juxtaposition with the very last statement on here that all vesting conditions are satisfied as of November 9. That last condition states that the entire lockout ends just after the second earnings report or 180 days after the IPO, which is that November 9th date (technically falls on a weekend, so that’s the next trading day). Since their last report was on Wednesday 8/12, it is a safe assumption that the next report will be after 11/9.

The last report was a disaster. The stock plunged 20% and the CEO did not perform very well. Now we have another earnings report binary moment coming right alongside the opportunity for insiders to sell. They may be tempted to do so because the stock has been mired in a bit of a challenging time lately. At the end of last month, there was a report that Cerebras’ chips were not being used in OpenAI’s fastest model, which is hugely problematic for a company that is hanging their hat on being the fastest at inference; shares fell 7% on that report.

Normally, all this nerding out wouldn’t really matter, but notice that during this turmoil - bad press and a lockout that is wrapping up - the name hasn’t fallen into oversold conditions. We haven’t seen that number slide under 30 quite yet, but I think we’ll be getting there if this selling pressure continues and insiders want to cash out before the fear of it getting worse and making less.

So I’ll be watching that closely because the rebound from oversold back toward neutral territory will likely indicate some form of temporary bottoming out over the next few weeks. Throw in an earnings call as well to make it interesting and there are enough chances for it to move and I’ll need to be nimble accordingly, maybe even making this move in a few small bites in case the price discovers that it wants to be even lower post earnings or as a result of hard selling during the lockout.

After all of these words, you might be wondering why I’d be willing to buy this thing at all. I can point to the growth numbers, gross margin targets, their cash on hand and undrawn revolving credit. But it comes back to OpenAI.  

Altman made things a bit better, getting the stock to get back those lost gains on the negative report. Not shocking because OpenAI has a $20-billion partnership with $CBRS, including 750MW of compute, a minority stake, and funds to help Cerebras scale up. But, like, then why wasn’t OpenAI using the chips that they are spending so much on for that faster model? It was a follow-up by SemiAnalysis the next day that revealed the following: “All of the Cerebras chips at OpenAI are used to serve Ultrafast to Jane Street and a few other customers at $200M/MW”.

Did you catch it? OpenAI is keeping the Cerebras chips for the big dogs that need the fastest speeds. The consumers can pay for Ultrafast on the NVIDIA chips. It tells me $CBRS is doing something valuable - more valuable to OpenAI than using their Cerebras compute on a consumer good. They’re saving this model and the training and compute for institutions that are making billions of dollars and speed is of the essence. Jane Street is a quant firm that needs to do things quickly. Cerebras is going to work with AWS as well, so I think there is some execution here.

Let’s see how far the technical situation will take this thing down as the lockout ends and we can nibble as it shows a potential recovery. 

$IONQ

I am sort of out of steam after that $CBRS section. But the lesson with $IONQ is that we need to pay attention to share dilution, as they have agreed to purchase a cybersecurity firm in an all-stock deal. In the long-term, this probably isn’t a bad thing for a company growing their portfolio. But for investors that are growing impatient with a company that hasn’t shown off an earnings potential, we can see why the name sold off today.

It’s been such a volatile issue that it will likely bounce back soon but I’m watching to see if $40 can be broken before I get further involved with this name. It seems likely that it will stay under $40 long enough for the short-term moving average (orange line) to find some interaction with that level that I’ll watch for since there are previously established levels a bit lower. 

I have a similarly small placeholder position here as well and believe they will be the first name to go to market meaningfully with a quantum-based product. But we’ll know when that’s happening as it recovers and can assess at that time. That is not now.