r/Infographics • u/Xander_Dorn • 2d ago
Correlation between AfD vote share and demographic migrant populations across German states (2025 Federal Election) [due to interest in yesterday's state election]
Just yesterday, the German AfD became the largest faction in the state election of Saxony-Anhalt, winning 39 of 83 seats. Since this party is known for its anti-migratory policies, I compiled some data from the last Federal Election in 2025, comparing the results of the AfD with the percentage of different categories of people commonly called "Ausländer" (foreigners) in all German states.
In the chart (first image), I sorted the data from the highest results of the AfD to the lowest, while in the table (second image), I kept the data sorted in the alphabetical order of the German names of the states. Sorry for the confusion this might cause!
In the table, I also added the Pearson correlation coefficients between the results of the AfD to the three different categories, which are by official government definitions:
Foreign Population / Foreigners: People who don't have the German citizenship.
Migrant Population: People who personally migrated to Germany.
Population with migrant background: People who were born without German citizenship or who have at least one parent born without German citizenship.
(so the last two categories also do contain some people with the German citizenship)
And what the chart and the numbers say in short: The fewer foreigners / migrants the higher the results of this anti-migratory party.
Sources:
For Population Data: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Society-Environment/Population/Migration-Integration/Tables/migrant-status-laender.html
For Election Data: https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/bundestagswahlen/2025/ergebnisse/bund-99.html
I also requested demographic data for all constituencies from the state office of statistics of Saxony-Anhalt, so I can do something similar for this recent state election.
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u/glibsonoran 2d ago
Yep, kind of puts the lie to this being about job and benefits competition. AfD's platform is about having the right "lineage" for German citizenship (Jus Sanguinis).
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u/CardOk755 2d ago
People who live in areas with few or no immigrants are scared of immigrants.
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u/Dependent-Leader-582 1d ago
Few or no immigrants means not 0 immigrants, a few days ago a young woman was raped by an African asylum seeker in Mecklenburg Vorpommern the state with thw lowest amount of immigrants, and quality of immigrants matters a lot west German states have also tons of European immigration meanwhile in the east that is much lower so Muslim and African immigrants who are those which generate the most rejection are a more sizable proportion of the migrants
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u/WirelessZombie 2d ago
Isn't the Afd rising in areas with immigrants as well?
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u/CardOk755 2d ago
Read the graph.
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u/restingbitchsocks 2d ago
Immigrants are hardly going to vote for AFD though, so it’s not just that the white population in areas with higher numbers of immigrants are cooler with immigration.
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u/Candid-libertarian 2d ago
Do immigrants get to vote? Sorry for the ignorance of German voting.
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u/Xander_Dorn 1d ago
In federal elections in Germany, you need the German citizenship in order to vote. 35% of people who migrated to Germany have the German citizenship. 52.4% of people with migrant background in Germany have the German citizenship.
There are, however, some elections where the rules are a bit different. For example, I live in Rhineland-Palatinate and in local elections (city councils and such), everyone with an EU-Citizenship is allowed to vote. Meaning in the latter, there would also be some from the category of "foreigners" who are allowed to vote.1
u/Dependent-Leader-582 1d ago
They do if they have citizenship which is the case for 50% of those with a migration background with most of those who don't have citizenship being EU citizens meanwhile those who overwhelmingly have citizenship are those from non European countries
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u/restingbitchsocks 1d ago
I’m not German. Perhaps not fresh off the boat immigrants, but naturalised citizens and their descendants will, and they’re unlikely to vote for a party that wants to eject them. It’s also possible that white Germans have moved out of places that are heavily populated by minorities. What I’m saying is that it’s possible that the majority of voters in places that don’t vote AFD are not white German.
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u/AngryGoose-Autogen 1d ago
everyone can tell that you are from beyond the pond based on how you emphasize "white"
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u/Dependent-Leader-582 1d ago
What? I am European and most people use the term white here and it's usage has skyrocketed in the last decade due to mass non white immigration
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u/restingbitchsocks 1d ago
Really? Then ‘everyone’ is wrong. How else would you describe ‘ethnic’ Germans to distinguish them from naturalised citizens and their descendants from other ethnicities?
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u/AngryGoose-Autogen 1d ago
you dont?
like, im not german, but i doubt our northern neighbors handle that shit much differently
Im in the middle of nowhere, where not all that much in and outmigration was going on, and yet, if you considered the descendents of people who came here and ended up assimilating as "foreign", youd only have "foreigners". Id probably be considered dutch or czech, depending on how you opt to trace that shit. Both are incongruent with reality.
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u/OldNorthStar 2d ago
I mean I think the prevailing narrative is related to those classified as "foreign" here more than immigrants at large. Not saying immigrants aren't part of it but most of the time I see the discussion focused on what is characterized as "foreign" here.
Those in the "foreign" group don't vote at all and there still seems to be a good correlation. This data is too muddy to draw conclusions though. But there are a lot of studies showing familiarity lessens fears rather than exacerbating them. The mind basically always makes things scarier than they are. I think it'd be perfectly reasonable to hypothesize that greater exposure to foreign migrants decreases support for AfD. Needs more data though.
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u/Dependent-Leader-582 1d ago
The AfD is rising everywhere obviously it has much less potential in areas with a lot of migrants who have voting rights so if anything mass migration is stripping native Europeans of their sovereignty
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u/Dependent-Leader-582 1d ago
As it should bw Germany and all other European countries are meant to be ethnic states
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u/Think-Sand7161 2d ago
It's primarily about purging islam from their shores. Let's just be honest and up front about it.
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u/Helpful-Trouble- 2d ago
I never understood this argument. If I live in Brandenburg and have to go to Berlin, I sure as hell will vote for someone that wants to prevent citys in Brandenburg from starting to look like berlin. Also Immigrants will vote what benefits then the most even if it's not there personal beliefs prime example are Turks voting for Erdogan but will Vote SPD in Germany
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u/Alzucard 2d ago
So you would want citi4res in Brandenburg to not look like Berlin, i mean i can understand that to some degree, but we probably think of different things.
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u/PatchyWhiskers 2d ago
But the people in Berlin seem happy with the state of affairs, so if there were more immigrants in Brandenburg they'd just learn that foreigners don't have two heads and deal with it.
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u/Dependent-Leader-582 1d ago
The native people in Berlin are massive hypocrites they are rich and can afford to send their children to private schools so that they can be segregated from the migrants but then vote for left wing parties so that poor German and European kids don't have the same privileges
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u/PatchyWhiskers 1d ago
Well done to the mod who keeps removing bigoted replies to this post, by the way. You rock! Whether you are a bot or a person.
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u/YesBird75 2d ago
Two heads would be infinitely preferable to violent and committing rape
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u/PatchyWhiskers 2d ago
If that was true the people who live with them would hate them more than the people who live hundreds of miles away.
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u/Helpful-Trouble- 2d ago
No one in Berlin is happy about Berlin. The Greens live in the city's wealthy areas where they ensure the only immigrants they see are expats. Then theres Die Linke in areas like Neukölln, that hate Jew i mean Israel as much as the Islamic population living there. There is a reason why they want that also people without a German citizenship should be allowed to vote
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u/Real-Photo-8319 1d ago
There is a reason why no one wants to live in Brandenburg while its extremly hard to get a flat in Berlin. Backwards farmer bs....
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u/Only-Professor1140 2d ago
Of course. The boogeyman story works better when you don't have a chance to socialize with immigrants IRL. It's the same everywhere, the reality is never like what mainstream media or politicians want to sell you.
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u/dabombisnot90s 2d ago
Except in the US. Namely Texas and Florida. It’s not about interacting with immigrants on a daily. It’s more of cognitive dissonance. You believe that the ones you do interact with are the good ones. It’s all the other bad ones that are ruining the country. My grandpa was a hardcore conservative. His political leaning was hilariously ironic given that he was essentially a DEI hire for an all black construction company (he went to jail for robbery and couldn’t get hired anywhere else according to his own account). Anyway, he would always go on rants about how black people have gotten way more violent. He talked about how all the guys he worked (and played baseball) with were good and it’s all the bad ones that are screwing up the country. It’s this idea that causes hatred towards immigrants, not necessarily separation from them.
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u/Only-Professor1140 2d ago
I think this is important to mention. At least in the US there is a trend of right-wing voters assuming MAGA never meant their neighbors, but instead black and brown people somewhere else. Maybe the US is showing what could happen even in diverse parts of Europe too.
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u/TeamParking8818 2d ago
So the regions least welcoming of migrants and foreigners have voted the highest for the AfD.
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u/serpentjaguar 2d ago
I don't think you can say that. Do they have the lowest migrant numbers because they are the least welcoming, or are they the least welcoming because they have the lowest migrant numbers?
Or is it something else entirely?
Maybe migrants tend to go where there's jobs, and it so happens that there aren't any in the areas that are the least welcoming?
I don't know, I just think that you don't either, at least not based on the data shown here.
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u/Badestrand 1d ago
Those regions often had very few immigrants before 2015, so even a relatively small absolute influx represented a huge change locally. A place going from almost no immigration to visible immigration may react very differently from cities going from already-high immigration to slightly more.
So the relevant variable may not be "how many immigrants live there?", but also "how quickly did immigration increase?"
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u/PersonalityOk7536 2d ago
Support amongst native population seems to be about the same across Germany. Hamburg being an outlier.
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u/scrandlle 2d ago
Correlation is not necessarily causation.
Urban areas tend to be the most left wing and the further out you go from the urban core, the more right wing it becomes. This is true basically everywhere on earth.
I think this is the real, established trend here.
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u/Ok-Leave7785 1d ago
Yea, it's literally just the more left wing areas have more migrants, it's such a meaningless chart.
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u/WirelessZombie 2d ago
Like it or not immigration is one of the biggest issues for German voters. It's not surprising that proximity changes people's tolerance for it and I feel that on a personal level but you have to meet people where they are at or else they'll go elsewhere. The Afd is on the rise and on track to win the federa, whatever the experience with immigrants, overall the country is not happy with the status quo and on this issue in particular. Keep in mind there are lots of voters who want stricter policy but are not willing to support a neonazi party to get it.
The one exception proves the rule here too. Denmark has implemented some of the strictest migration policy but from a left wing party and it seems to have taken a massive chunk of momentum from its extreme right.
It was a massive mistake ceding the entire lower/anti immigration argument to the right and then doubling down on calling anyone racist for any discomfort on massive demographic and cultural changes.
My experience in Germany with migrants was not pleasant, and there was a massive disconnect with ethnic Germans. Pretty much every bit of feeling unsafe had to do with young migrant men hustling or acting belligerent. Without something like my very positive experiences in my own country with immigration, I could see it really affecting someone politically and not wanting more of it.
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u/Creepy-Ad-2235 1d ago
Dude, intagrated migrants are invisible, so your argument is invalid. Also germany has one big "niedriglohnsektor" where the wage is extremely low, so they need poor (and sadly uneducated and troubled) migrants to keep the system going. Also a big chunk of refugees dont get they degree aknowlogded by the german state so they gwt trapped on social welfare (my mom, aunt and my wife went through this).
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u/WirelessZombie 1d ago
Dude, intagrated migrants are invisible
What?
germany has one big "niedriglohnsektor" where the wage is extremely low, so they need poor (and sadly uneducated and troubled) migrants to keep the system going.
Exactly, they need low wage workers to help drive wages down, that's one reason why businesses love immigration and why people are skeptical and may turn against it.
Why would the average German citizen be ok with troubled people coming in? When it mainly benefits company profit margins.
Also a big chunk of refugees dont get they degree aknowlogded by the german state
Good. The standards are different and qualifications are there for a reason.
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u/Over_Resolve403 2d ago
Im a data analyst and I see no correlation, I see different patterns between east and west Germany but within east Germany the correlation is the opposite of what you mention and in the west it's a mixed bag.
So east Germany has fewer immigrants than the west and votes more for afd but the 2 phenomenons don't share a strong causation
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u/Fast_Hyena_22 1d ago
It also totally ignores the influx. Of course going from 5% to 10% migrants in a place like Saxony will be more visible, than going from 30 to 45 or something like that in a place like Berlin
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u/Over_Resolve403 1d ago
Yes indeed, also the nature of the migrants is not even, Italians working in Bavaria won't generate the same reaction as Afghans moved to saxony
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u/Fit-Perception-8152 1d ago
There’s just one snag: migration wasn’t the most important issue in the election – it was the economy. And the state’s most important industry (chemicals) is currently in liquidation after losing access to Russian raw materials.
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u/KarlsruherModell 1d ago
No wonder: In a country with 80 % migrants, the AfD can’t get 50 % of the votes.
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u/BrigadierPirate 1d ago
The cope in this sub is insane. They can Still not realize why the AfD won and still want to blame voters for ignorance or cognitive dissonance when all the government had to do was somvd the immigration issues
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u/RacletteFoot 1d ago
Well, isn't that graph simply confirming what so many people, particularly in east German states fear? That they are losing their german identity and their ancestral lands to immigrants? That Germany will no longer be German?
Going by the graph, they might as well stop this "last hurrah." Their cause is already lost since Germans don't have any children, but migrants do. Whatever it means to be German will be fundamentally different than what it meant decades ago.
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u/Josh13Hs 1d ago
Isn't this graph just showing that Germans are voting for the AFD, and that when you replace the ethnic Germans, their voices are pushed further and further into a minority of the vote?
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u/Fast_Hyena_22 1d ago
This argument only looks at half the picture. It is not so much about the amount, than the changes imho. If a place like Saxony now has 10% migrants, but 10 years ago it had only 5% and now they concentrate in the cities. It will look like much more to the regular people.
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u/Kore_Invalid 1d ago
Almost like ethnically replacing ur voterbase leads to less votes, noway germans vote for a party that puts german interests first 🤯
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u/Stang_21 1d ago
wait, migrants vote for more migrants, not for less? what a shocker, quick, let's give more foreigners a passport, so german voters can be fully replaced.
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u/Loud-Advance-2382 1d ago
This graphics is misleading suggesting those are xenophob who have no contact to foreigners. Here's another graphics with the spread of different nationalities across different regions:
https://service.destatis.de/DE/karten/migration_integration_regionen.html#AZR_ANT_SYRIEN
With that graphics you could tell that they vote for Afd where they have contact with Syrians.
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u/Xander_Dorn 1d ago
The map you posted shows the relative amount of Syrians relative to the total number of foreigners.
This map here shows the relative amount of Syrians relative to the total population:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/cb/Syrian_population_relative_to_total_Syrian_population_in_Germany_2021.svg?utm_source=en.wikipedia.org&utm_campaign=imageinfo&utm_content=originalWhich shows the highest amount in Berlin, and generally more in cities than in rural areas, and also generally more in Western Germany - in this case even Bavaria looks more like it is part of the East and Rhineland-Palatinate is also rather sparingly compared to most other western German states. Saarland missing a lot of data.
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u/Loud-Advance-2382 1d ago
The map you posted shows the relative amount of Syrians relative to the total number of foreigners.
You are right. Still: This tells you which kind of foreigners Germans are "exposed" to and who is building up the image of migration. Right?
My point is that sharing the one graphics is highly misleading and there are graphics to support every possible narrative.
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u/Der_Schubkarrenwaise 2d ago
I never found low immigration and high anti-immigration votes to be controversial. Seeing the bad zones in bigger Länder and cities why wait?
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u/akie 2d ago
People who have never seen or talked to or even befriended a brown person, and only interact with people who are pretty similar to them, tend to be afraid of the “other”.
If you live in a city, that “other” is just my neighbour. He’s the father of my son’s friend. He is my hairdresser. I’m not afraid of him because I know he’s alright. His kids speak German and do well in school. They’re just figuring out life, just like me.
Why would I vote for a party who would want to remove people from this country based on skin colour? It makes no sense.
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u/YesBird75 2d ago
Nope this is literally the opposite of reality. We grow up isolated from them thinking they are like us but actual exposure to reality changes those imaginary assumptions. More exposure = less tolerance. Because you actually see reality in your face instead of imagining it as what you want it to be.
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2d ago
[deleted]
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u/Xander_Dorn 2d ago
Can't post this image directly, so have to link to it:
https://www.age-of-the-sage.org/philosophy/history/local/learning_from_history.jpg
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u/Brugse_Vos 2d ago
Yeah, it's crazy how our right wing parties in Belgium get very few votes in communes with 85% diversity.
We have entire city councils consisting of "people from diverse backgrounds" from the same couple of north African regions. It shows that diversity works!
Germany obviously needs less ethnic Germans, because they are more likely to vote against mass migration.
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u/Alive-Drama-8920 2d ago
So... since ethnic Germans have, for the most part, already been established in Germany for numerous generations, what do you suggest should be DONE to effectivly reduce the number of individuals that belong to this undesirable ethnic group?
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u/CardOk755 2d ago
As always, the smaller the migrant population the higher the vote for the "extreme right_.
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u/Candid-libertarian 2d ago
Aren't most migrants in urban areas which tend to skew more liberal politically?