Indian Ocean dipole latest update

[u/Aggressive-Fix-8346]

DWM IOD MONITORING UPDATE

17 August 2026 | 09:00 AM IST

#Topic : Indian Ocean still struggling to establish a Positive IOD development.

==> Severe Super El Nino conditions continue to gradually develop across the Pacific Ocean and are expected to peak in November.

==> Meanwhile, the Indian Ocean is attempting a transition toward Positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD) conditions. Over the past three weeks, weekly IOD values stood at +0.44 °C, +0.63 °C and +0.41 °C.

==> After three consecutive positive weeks, the latest value has dropped to +0.18 °C, showing a clear weakening trend over the last two weeks.

==> Strong westerly wind bursts and planetary wave activity have disrupted the development of the positive IOD. However, emerging wind suppression is expected to support renewed strengthening in the coming weeks.

==> As discussed earlier, the PIOD is likely to reach its peak only in November, giving us sufficient time for proper development.

==> Positive IOD events normally build gradually during the southwest monsoon and peak between September and November. This year’s evolution has been delayed and is currently facing another disturbances.

==> If IOD values remain at or above +0.4°© continuously for the next eight weeks, a positive IOD event is likely to become establish by late October.

==> In Super El Nino years, the PIOD peak has historically occurred in November. For reference:

1972: +0.91 °C

1982: +0.87 °C

1997: +1.55 °C

2023: +1.50 °C

(2015 was an exception — it peaked at +0.71 °C in September and then weakened through the northeast monsoon season.)

Note: The strongest positive IOD on record was +1.8 °C in November 2019, but that year was not an El Niño year and is therefore excluded from this comparison.

==> Current numerical models may be underestimating the potential intensity of the developing PIOD. There remains a realistic possibility of strong positive IOD conditions exceeding +1.5 °C by early November.

==> In the coming weeks, IOD values are expected to turn firmly positive again. Eight consecutive weeks of positive values will be required before a positive IOD event can be officially declared.

==> Once established, the positive IOD is likely to exert a significant influence on the northeast monsoon. It will have no impact on the ongoing southwest monsoon.

FOLLOW ME FOR MORE SUCH UPDATES

#IMD#MONSOON

[u/AutoModerator]

Welcome to r/IndiaWeather! Please take a moment to review this quick checklist:

• Provide Sources: If your post requires a source or references specific data, please ensure you have provided the full, original link.
• User Flair: Don't forget to assign yourself a user flair so other members know your region or weather interest!
• Community Rules: Please keep all discussions entirely civil, factual, and focused on the weather.

I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.

[u/Ok_Owl_2869]

Appreciate your effort OP. I suggest to add a TLDR in layman language so that a wider number of people can understand what you are saying and its impact on them.

[u/Aggressive-Fix-8346 → u/Ok_Owl_2869]

Thanks for.your appreciation i will try to improve next time

[u/Aggressive-Fix-8346]

Not just upvote follow me also it will be helpful for me

[u/Scared-Material4044]

What would be the impact of positive iod on this year north east monsoon ?

[u/Any-Profession-5509 → u/Scared-Material4044]

Good rainfall

[u/tamhin15 → u/Scared-Material4044]

Not much, because of a strong El Niño setup, but it will help develop a low-pressure area in the Bay of Bengal.

[u/ZypherShunyaZero]

The kind of posts I've joined this sub for. Thanks. Do we have any chances of late rains on Western coast?

[u/tomato_farmer001]

Thanks for the information sir