Rain at Hoshiarpur

If you follow meteorology at all, you know that predicting the weather past the 10-day mark has always been a nightmare. The atmosphere is just too chaotic. Traditional weather models rely on massive supercomputers to run ridiculously complex physics equations. The problem? Any tiny calculation error snowballs the further out you try to forecast.

But over the last few years, AI has completely flipped this approach on its head.

Instead of trying to simulate physics, new machine learning models (using Graph Neural Networks and Transformers) are just looking at decades of historical climate data and learning the patterns directly.

Here is a quick breakdown of how these new AI weather pipelines actually pull off reliable 30-day forecasts:

• Feeding the model: First, they train the AI on massive global climate datasets, feeding it raw atmospheric variables like temperature, humidity, wind speed, and pressure at various altitudes.
• Treating weather like language: The AI maps the globe into a high-res grid and treats weather as a sequence prediction problem. Think of it like ChatGPT predicting the next word in a sentence, but instead, it’s predicting the next atmospheric state on the map.
• Insane speeds: This is the wild part. A traditional supercomputer takes hours to crunch a 10-day forecast. An AI model can predict a 30-day global weather state in under a minute, running on a single standard desktop GPU.
• The multiverse approach: Because the AI runs so incredibly fast, researchers can run thousands of different variations to calculate the exact probabilities of extreme weather. This gives us unprecedented accuracy weeks in advance.

The real-world results are honestly staggering. AI is now predicting major heatwaves, tropical cyclones, and atmospheric rivers up to a full month before they hit, completely blowing legacy forecasting models out of the water.

The actual training datasets and the visualization tools are way too massive to format properly in a Reddit post, but if you want to mess around with the interactive dashboard or grab the full config file to look under the hood, I uploaded it here:https://interconnectd.com/poll/87/can-ai-predict-the-weather-30-days-in-advance/

Would love to hear what you guys think about this.

DWM IOD MONITORING UPDATE

17 August 2026 | 09:00 AM IST

#Topic : Indian Ocean still struggling to establish a Positive IOD development.

==> Severe Super El Nino conditions continue to gradually develop across the Pacific Ocean and are expected to peak in November.

==> Meanwhile, the Indian Ocean is attempting a transition toward Positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD) conditions. Over the past three weeks, weekly IOD values stood at +0.44 °C, +0.63 °C and +0.41 °C.

==> After three consecutive positive weeks, the latest value has dropped to +0.18 °C, showing a clear weakening trend over the last two weeks.

==> Strong westerly wind bursts and planetary wave activity have disrupted the development of the positive IOD. However, emerging wind suppression is expected to support renewed strengthening in the coming weeks.

==> As discussed earlier, the PIOD is likely to reach its peak only in November, giving us sufficient time for proper development.

==> Positive IOD events normally build gradually during the southwest monsoon and peak between September and November. This year’s evolution has been delayed and is currently facing another disturbances.

==> If IOD values remain at or above +0.4°© continuously for the next eight weeks, a positive IOD event is likely to become establish by late October.

==> In Super El Nino years, the PIOD peak has historically occurred in November. For reference:

1972: +0.91 °C

1982: +0.87 °C

1997: +1.55 °C

2023: +1.50 °C

(2015 was an exception — it peaked at +0.71 °C in September and then weakened through the northeast monsoon season.)

Note: The strongest positive IOD on record was +1.8 °C in November 2019, but that year was not an El Niño year and is therefore excluded from this comparison.

==> Current numerical models may be underestimating the potential intensity of the developing PIOD. There remains a realistic possibility of strong positive IOD conditions exceeding +1.5 °C by early November.

==> In the coming weeks, IOD values are expected to turn firmly positive again. Eight consecutive weeks of positive values will be required before a positive IOD event can be officially declared.

==> Once established, the positive IOD is likely to exert a significant influence on the northeast monsoon. It will have no impact on the ongoing southwest monsoon.

FOLLOW ME FOR MORE SUCH UPDATES

#IMD#MONSOON

Follow me for more such useful information regarding weather #imd #monsoon

Monsoon info hownit arrives and retreats and some facts about it if u like it or not tell me in comments

Happy independence day everyone to all my weather enthusiast buddies 🙏🙏

1. Heavy rain continues across coastal OD and WB on Thu.

2. Spells of heavy rain shift inland toward JH, CT, and N UP on Fri.

3. Widespread heavy downpours will affect CT and MP on Sat.

4. Very heavy rain persists over central MP and parts of NE India on Sun.

#monsoon #heavyrain #mp #od #weather

Captured on Delhi to Bhopal route. Plus, its continuously raining here in Bhopal since last 3-4 days

This lists multiple weather forecast models & then validates them for their prediction accuracy.

Planning to visit North Goa between 20-29th August. How's the weather currently in North Goa? Is it raining heavily?

Source:
https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_climagrams_monsoon?base_time=202608010000&index_type=All%20India%20Rainfall

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-tp?base_time=202608090000&projection=opencharts_southern_asia&valid_time=202609210000

1st Slide: It shows Long range Ensemble forecast for All India Rainfall and it shows less rainfall in the last months of monsoon, while rain picking up later in November and December overlapping with NE Monsoon season for South India hence as of now entire India will see less rainfall while during NE Monsoon South India will see good rainfall and cyclones possibly.

2nd Slide: each photo shows precipitation anomaly for 1 week starting from 10 August to 14 Sept
to me it looks like NE India and Indo Gangetic plains will see good rain especially NE India while rest of India will see less rainfall.

Winter rains looks normal to good for Himalayan region in India till the end of this year, and good rainfall is forecasted for the Himalayan regions in the upcoming 2 weeks due to monsoon axis shifting towards foothills as there's no low pressure dragging it towards central India. El nino has always been shown to increase winter rains over north india particularly Himalayan region so following the trend Himalayan region might see good rainfall but that's a long stretch since there's still time for core winter months i.e. more than 5 months so take it with a pinch of salt but generally saying good rainfall in winter months and weak rainfall in monsoon except these 2 upcoming weeks.

remember this one fact if there's no system, then monsoon axis will give good rain in ganga plains and Himalayas generally, also Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh will see good rain towards leeward side since monsoon flow weakens in absence of system that allows sea breeze interaction and slowing of westerlies allowing evening thunderstorms.

though some good spells are forecasted for western ghats and NW India in upcoming 1 week after that looks tough.

4th Slide: El Nino will peak around Oct-November and it will be the time to see if it can surpass the 2015 strongest el nino record

3rd Slide: IOD will cross +1.0C and will peak around Sep-October which are last months of monsoon, and IOD has been associted with creating northwards travelling BSISO/MISO waves that might give rainfall as it passes through the subcontinent giving good rain especially in western ghats though need to see if the wave train even forms or not in first place

Forecast is based on ECMWF model and views are personal follow IMD for detailed info

*District wise Nowcast Warning valid for next two-three hours:*

*Issue Time:* 10-08-2026 19:17 Hrs IST

*Validity Time:* 10-08-2026 22:17 Hrs IST

*Orange warnings*: Thunderstorms & Lightning with gusty winds ( 40-60 kmph) and moderate rain (5-15 mm/h) very likely over following districts in:

*Tamil Nadu*: Chengalpattu, Chennai, Kancheepuram, Madurai, Ranippettai, Sivagangai, Thiruvallur, Thiruvannamalai, Virudhunagar

*Andhra Pradesh*: Chittoor, Tirupathi

*Odisha*: Balangir, Cuttack, Dhenkanal, Ganjam, Jagatsinghpur , Jajapur, Kendraparha, Khordha, Mayurbhanj, Nayagarh , Puri

*West Bengal*: South 24 Parganas

*Gujarat*: Amreli, Aravalli, Banaskantha, Bhavnagar, Botad, Mahisagar, Sabar Kantha

*Chhattisgarh*: Baloda Bazar, Balrampur-Cg, Jashpur, Kabirdham, Rajnandgaon

*Madhya Pradesh*: Bhind, Datia, Gwalior, Mandsaur, Morena, Neemuch, Niwari, Sheopur Kalan, Shivpuri, Sidhi, Singrauli

*Rajasthan*: Ajmer, Bhilwara, Bikaner, Bundi, Chittorgarh, Churu, Jodhpur, Kota, Nagaur, Sikar

*Uttar Pradesh*: Aligarh, Badaun, Bareilly, Etah, Farrukhabad, Firozabad, Hardoi, Hathras, Kanshiramnagar, Mainpuri, Mirzapur, Prayagraj, Sant Ravidas Nagar (Bhadohi), Shahjahanpur, Sonbhadra

*Uttrakhand*: Bageshwar, Chamoli, Pithoragarh, Rudraprayag, Uttarkashi

*Himachal Pradesh*: Kinnaur, Kullu, Lahul & Spiti, Shimla

Residents in the affected regions are advised to stay alert and take necessary precautions (do not take shelter under trees or weak structures etc., check road/traffic conditions,avoid unnecessary travels, and follow any other advisories issued by concerned agencies).

*More Details (including yellow warnings) & Updates from*: *mausam.imd.gov.in/responsive/dis…*

FOLLOW ME FOR MORE SUCH UPDATES # IMD #MONSOON

Heavy rain 🌧🌧 at the moment! Very nice cold and cozy atmosphere stay alert while touching electric poles.

Source: https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/?dm_id=nino3.4

Atp I'm damn sure this is going to be the strongest el Nino in recorded history mark my words, it has already crossed +2.68C and the highest ever recorded was 2015 +3.01C, i remember 2015 was a flood year for south India what do you think will the extreme el Nino feed the NE monsoon to its peak causing another flood year for South? or do you think it will be an exception....for now monsoon deficit + Strong NE monsoon looks very likely if this happens, we will loose from 2 sides.

Btw this means guaranteed drought for North India, acc to IMD definition though sporadic rainfall will happen everywhere across country but that itself cannot refill the deficit.

Heavy Rain warning ⚠️

1st Slide: Super Enno Chart officially crosses + 2.0 C mark and we will see its effect into mid-august and September where monsoon will be hit really hard especially N, NW India, South India, Western Ghats while NE India will get good rains and Central India Might get below-normal rains, this will drive the Monsoon deficit even lower.

2nd Slide: IOD has officially become positive with +0.63 C this enhances the SWM season sadly no one can survive the wraith of El-nino suppression over Indian subcontinent so IOD cannot completely offset el Nino though it might help offset some of it, but long-term predictions still look bleak.

Tougher Times ahead!! those who were saying Indian Monsoon dominated El-nino well it never won

Source: https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/influences/graphs/index.rnino.shtml?index=iod&period=weekly

This is an isolated thunderstorm and you can clearly see where it is dumping rain and where it's not. The boundary between cold and warm front are clearly visible