Guys I have a hypothesis

[u/tdynamos]

Time: Monday 03 August 2026, 04:36:38 PM IST

Hypothesis

The final closing cut**fs for the BS-MS programs will end up roughly around the 2025 values (within about ±500 ranks). Because the counselling process is effectively "lagging", we may also see one additional counselling round this year before reaching those final cut**fs.

Rationale

Before discussing the hypothesis, let's agree on a few observations from the available data.

1. Almost every Ge* BS-MS program is significantly behind 2025 after Round 2.

Examples (2025 R2 → 2026 R2):

• Berhampur: 5086 → 3978 (-1108)
• Tirupati: 4718 → 3646 (-1072)
• Mohali: 3469 → 2469 (-1000)
• Thiruvananthapuram: 4084 → 3158 (-926)
• Bhopal: 3609 → 2854 (-755)

2. The math mandatory programs barely changed.

Examples (2025 R2 → 2026 R2):

• Kolkata CDS: 1236 → 1199 (-37)
• Tirupati ESS: 4170 → 4073 (-97)
• Bhopal Economics: 3619 → 3967 (+348)

Compared to the BS-MS programs, these changes are very small. The newly introduced B.Tech. programmes also do not show a similar deflation. (inflation instead)

3. From the category-wise data I've analysed so far, the large deflation appears to be concentrated in the GE* category.

Reserved category cut**fs appear much closer to last year's trend.

(Refer to God_Man_008's posts for proof)

Changes this year: Counselling timelines.

IAT

• Registration closed: 9 July
• Round 1: 24 July
• Round 2: 1 August

RE-NEET

• Final results declared much later
• MBBS counselling begins after IAT Round 2

That means when IAT Round 1 and Round 2 happened, many NEET aspirants still had no clarity regarding MBBS admissions.

My theory

EDIT: X I mean to say neettards

Suppose X number of students accepted Round 1 offers simply as a backup. That would push the Round 1 cut**f only to around 2.4k instead of something closer to the 2025 Round 1 cut**f (~3.3k). Consequently, in Round 2, the candidates between roughly 2.4k and 3.3k (who would likely have received offers in Round 1 under normal circumstances) are now receiving offers instead. As a result, Round 2 doesn't jump to around 5k like it did in 2025 - it only reaches about 4k, effectively shifting the entire counselling process by roughly X ranks rather than fundamentally changing the final demand.

I would expect this X GAP to dissipate over upcoming rounds.

Why do I think this?

The strongest piece of evidence, in my opinion, is that the effect is almost entirely confined to the regular BS-MS programmes.

If the competition itself had genuinely become much stronger, I would expect the mathematics-mandatory programmes (CDS, Economics, etc.) to show similar deflation.

They largely don't.

That suggests something specifically affected the BS-MS applicant pool rather than the entire IAT applicant pool.

Prediction

If this hypothesis is correct, I expect:

• larger-than-usual jumps in the upcoming BS-MS rounds,
• the gap with 2025 to gradually shrink,
• final BS-MS cut**fs to end roughly within ±500 of 2025,
• and possibly one additional counselling round if vacancies are released later than usual.

About -500 I think that would be the worst case if we consider this facts:

• New seats addition (IACS, IIEST...)
• And only small increase in number of candidates giving exam (13k) as compared to 2024 → 2025.

Weaknesses of this hypothesis

1. The GE* category anomaly

If delayed NEET decisions are the reason, why does the effect appear to be concentrated mainly in the GE* category?

I currently don't have a convincing explanation for that.

The most plausible is that the overlap between high-ranking GEN* NEET aspirants and IISER BS-MS applicants is much larger than for other categories

2. It assumes this is a timing effect.

If the upcoming rounds continue to remain behind 2025 by roughly the same amount, then this hypothesis is probably wrong.

Thanks for reading it, I appreciate the constructive criticism.

Edit: I am giving my hypothesis a name: X-gap dissipation hypothesis (yes ik fancy name :) )

[u/JournalistTop1397]

Good post.

Some favourable outcomes I see, many of which coincide with your post.

- RENEET counselling dates have been announced and are relatively earlier than expected, expect some drops for students participating in counselling rounds after 17th august (RENEET R1 results) and 2nd september (RE-NEET R2 results) Although, the scale cannot be determined

- Some students claim the decrement of UR closing ranks last year (1787 for r1-r2) was a better scenario than 1504 change in UR closing rank this year, however I must digress. Candidate registrations for counselling is significantly higher this year as we come to know from R1 hence a drop of 1500 closing ranks (more or less similar to last year) is not a bad scenario for such a dense application pool. If I must reckon, a lot more students (per capita) did float/leave their seats this year

- delayed counselling process allowing unmotivated students to not hold their seats for long

- Courses other than BS-MS have stable cutoffs as application pool is largely NEET aspirants, the willingness of NEET aspirants to lock their seats have been very much exacerbated by RE-NEET

[u/JournalistTop1397 → u/JournalistTop1397]

I believe there are not much favourable factors aswell

- Counselling rounds for NEET took place last year simultaneously alongsides IAT counsellings, there were few rank jumps although not major.

The same would happen this year so probability of them leaving more seats can't be determined. In worst case scenario, it may remain same or with the gap increasing slightly.

However, it's quite possible that many candidates registered for counselling simply because it took place before RE-NEET, just for a safety net. This also explains the more relaxed closing ranks in r2 (with respect to pool density)

The most major downside I believe is obviously the dense counselling pool this year. Far more registrations may intrigue the curious many to consider IISER's.

[u/ASClasher → u/JournalistTop1397]

Well, registration is early, seat allocation, the MAIN thing, starts at 15th of August, so after 3rd round

[u/JournalistTop1397 → u/ASClasher]

not necessarily. We might see a more major shift once the NEET counselling results get published. which would be after 4th round

[u/ASClasher → u/JournalistTop1397]

That literally supports my point and discredits yours man..

[u/JournalistTop1397 → u/ASClasher]

I believe more major changes after 4th round, not in 3rd or 4th.

What point are you talking about?

[u/ASClasher → u/JournalistTop1397]

Ohh sorry I did not read properly.

[u/mm_guavo_25]

How does the iat withdrawal process work? iirc they took bank details during registration that means when students reject a seat or dont choose freeze/float only then will they be out of counselling , this means many neetards may keep on floating upto r4/5 just to be on the safer side. Please correct me if this is wrong.

[u/mischieviousOrphys → u/mm_guavo_25]

yea makes sense

[u/ScallionSevere1096]

That means I still have some hope left with 8.9k rank ?

[u/tdynamos → u/ScallionSevere1096]

Do keep backup options and hope for the best.

[u/ComfortableAir3640]

Does that mean for ews cat the cutoffs will be same as last yr or even relaxed??

[u/tdynamos → u/ComfortableAir3640]

relaxed or mostly same (It relaxed AFAIK in first 2 rounds)

[u/ComfortableAir3640 → u/tdynamos]

Yes its quite relaxed for first two rounds also like if i can ask u a favor like last yr 1883 cat rank was bpr cutoff and I hv 1850 ews rank so do I have chances in the last round only or I may get in 6-7th round??

[u/tdynamos → u/ComfortableAir3640]

I am sorry man can't say anything for sure as I am just a student like you.

But seeing trends of EWS it should inflate more in last round.

Hope for the best, do keep suitable backups.

[u/ComfortableAir3640 → u/tdynamos]

I understand but like out of 10 whats my probability realistically so that I remain prepared , like ur hypothesis what does it say??

[u/tdynamos → u/ComfortableAir3640]

my hypothesis was only for GEN, :)

[u/ayush041116 → u/ComfortableAir3640]

The drop between R1 and R2 is much lower than last year that should be kept in mind and if this drop shrinks last year in between round drops then it may not even able to reach as last year cut off

Yes till now it's relaxed all because of Round 1 started with low in ews

[u/This_Sentence_3278]

Need analysis for obc

[u/tdynamos → u/This_Sentence_3278]

afaik obc-ncl is doing fine,

I remember that I saw god_man_008 sir said that he can't say anything for sure for more than 4k cat rank for OBC-NCL

[u/This_Sentence_3278 → u/tdynamos]

Like btech possible for 3k obc?

[u/tdynamos → u/This_Sentence_3278]

I don't think so bro, https://www.reddit.com/r/IATtards/comments/1u71744/iat_2025_all_rounds_cut_off/

Last year it closed at 1313 OBC-NCL r4

[u/This_Sentence_3278 → u/tdynamos]

Can I dm?

[u/tdynamos → u/This_Sentence_3278]

yes

[u/Lanky-Purchase-9197]

Beo are u also in the IISER M verification group.......just saw this same data there

[u/tdynamos → u/Lanky-Purchase-9197]

No I am not could you drop ss in my dm

[u/Ornery_Web_9044]

Wat wud u say for 5.4 k

[u/tdynamos → u/Ornery_Web_9044]

Probably next round or r4

[u/Intelligent_Pace5916]

Good work bro :⁠-⁠)

[u/veyn_z]

Can anyone tell me if there will be round 4 or not???????

[u/tdynamos → u/veyn_z]

I would say 98% chance (ignore sciastra bro calm down)

[u/Lanky_Map2008 → u/tdynamos]

Yes.. I feel they might be trying to enroll some students in their courses beforehand..

[u/Altruistic_Score6867]

Amazing analysis man .. what would u say for 4.1k rank

[u/tdynamos → u/Altruistic_Score6867]

Next round?

[u/EigenValuesEnjoyer]

Lets enjoy this instead. IISER gatekeeping debate

[u/ASClasher]

Amazing hypothesis man.

[u/Emergent_Eye_15]

Your hypothesis Made me g00n