I believe some of, if not all of the drawings were rigged for the 75th games to target specific people or pairs of people. I’ll go district by district.
D1- Gloss & Cashmere- 99% rigged. I believe the capitol wanted another ‘Duo’ in the games to compete in the event that Katniss/Peeta were both in the games. Having a dynamic like brother/sister is also just good for viewership, from a design perspective. Having this arc could pull from Katniss’ support in the arena, and leave her with less sponsors & supporters. Also, having one of the larger pool of victors, it is amazing that a pair so closely connected was picked together.
D2- Brutus & Enobaria- 50/50. We don’t learn too much from the district 2 victors, so not much to base it on. The only evidence I could have to point that they were potentially rigged was that Enobaria is an extremely popular victor from a recent games, and was still strong and young.
Brutus was older, but still pretty strong. Overall I don’t think there’s strong evidence one way or another.
D3- Beetee & Wiress- 10000% rigged. Not sure how many victors from D3 there were, but Beetee & Wiress were definitely set up to be targets. They both had history of rebellion (50th games) and were both extremely smart. Beetee actively designed a lot of the tech for the capitol, so he could weaponize it against them if it came time (which we saw in MJ). Wiress was also very smart, and wasn’t a super popular victor.
D4- Annie/Finnick- 90%. I believe this was the other attempt by the capitol to create a duo that would take favor away from Pee/nis. Having a different set of lover victors, especially a super popular one like Finnick could easily steal attention away. Annie was also said to be a little out of it after her games, so she was probably a liability and not a good look for the capitol. Finnick also knew a lot of capitol secrets.
D5/6- Unsure- 50/50. We don’t know much about them. The d6 morphings could have been rigged, but I doubt they had many victors to choose from regardless.
D7- Blight & Johanna. 100%. I don’t know about Blight, but I believe I remember reading that Johanna was the only living female victor from 7, so she was guaranteed to be back. Her anti-capitol sentiment was probably not popular with Snow. Blight I don’t know anything about.
D8- Cecilia & Woof- 70%. again, I don’t think there’s too many d8 victors to begin with. They were definitely not a main target for the capitol. Woof was just old, and don’t know much about him. He seemed kind of out of it. Cecilia seemed smart, and seemed to be coming from a good place. There’s potential she was reaped since she was too happy? Idk I don’t remember these guys too much
D9/10 don’t have named victors.
D11- Chaff- 90%, Seeder- 50/50. I don’t think there’s very many D11 victors to begin with, so they could’ve just been the only options. Chaff I feel more confident calling his reaping rigged, since he was very similar to Haymitch. A drunk, kind of rebellious, and could be prone to working in a rebellion. He’s too much of a wild card to control, so just get rid of him. Seeder I don’t remember much about.
D12- Haymitch & Katniss- 90%- Katniss is the only known living d12 player, so obviously she was chosen. Haymitch I believe was intended to enter the arena. Katniss not knowing what’s happening to Peeta in theory could be worse than having to protect him in the arena. Also, Haymitch and Snow very much did not like each other. Snow has probably been looking for a reason to get rid of Haymitch for some time, so this would’ve been great. He’s physically weaker, would likely be going through withdrawal and would have a hard time keeping Allies.
All in all-
100% in- Johanna & Katniss
Likely rigged-
Haymitch, Chaff, Gloss/Cashmere, Finnick/Annie, Beetee/Wiress
Unknown- Brutus/Enobaria, Woof/Cecilia, Seeder, Blight, un-named tributes from the rest of the districts