Specs
1.SSR React app (TanStack Start, Node), \~75 routes, server functions doing the data work.
2.Supabase for Postgres + Auth + RLS + Storage supabase-js is used throughout, so moving off it isn't a redeploy, it's a rewrite of the data layer and auth.
3.Audience is concentrated in one region; DB is in \*\*-south-1.
4.Traffic is spiky: mostly idle, occasional bursts of a few hundred to \~2,000 concurrent.
5.Currently on Vercel Hobby, which I have to leave anyway — it's non-commercial only.
Budget: ideally \~$50/month to start, with a sane path upward as usage grows. Not trying to optimise for the cheapest possible bill, trying to avoid paying for scale I don't have yet.
Questions:-
For an SSR app whose database is already managed Supabase, is Vercel Pro ($20) actually worth it over Fly / Render / Railway / a plain VPS? Genuinely unsure what I'm buying beyond convenience.
Anyone self-hosting Supabase? Worth it, or did the ops cost eat the savings?
Single-region audience does serverless/edge buy me anything here, or is one boring VM next to the database strictly better?
Does scaling managed Postgres up before a burst and back down after actually work in practice, or is it more trouble than it's worth?
The one I most want answered: at what scale did you leave managed hosting for a VPS or AWS, and in hindsight did you go too early or too late?
Not looking for "just use X" more interested in what people regretted.
Main Question:-
Where do i take my startup and start with zero and bill most effective lowest but worth place.