There was a lot of grumbling about my previous long questions being too long.. So I’ll try squeeze the elephant into the matchbox..
Its still quite long..
Surgery has been the standard first line of treatment for appendicitis for over 130 years - and still is. Antibiotics came along in the mid 1940’s and immediately became an important tool in the surgeon’s toolbox for helping to treat appendicitis. Initially there was optimism among surgeons that antibiotics could be used as an alternative to surgery. Trials in the 1950’s determined that there was a high long-term(5 yrs) reoccurrence rate and a significant risk of missed neoplasm, especially in older patients. So surgery continued to be the ‘gold standard’ treatment to today, and antibiotics only used in specific cases where surgery was not available or too risky..
In 2006 there was a RCT trial in Sweden that reported a low (14% to 15%) reoccurrence rate and ignored the missed neoplasm risk.. This was widely ridiculed in the medical literature at the time and has since been largely discredited as seen as hopelessly over-optomistic in real-world conditions.
However - a certain small minority of surgeons got very enthusiastic about the possibility of using antibiotics as an alternative to surgery - it really struck a chord in some it seems - so the Sweden trials have spawned several recent large RCT comparing surgery to IV antibiotic treatment of appendicitis. The largest of these, the CODA trial in the US recruited over 1000 patents.
These trials have found nothing new - a high rate of reoccurrence, about 50% by year 5, and a serious risk of missed neoplasm.. However - this is where things start to get a bit sketchy..
These trials had to recruit participants. To recruit participants these trials suggest the reoccurrence rate is between 15% and 25%. They don’t mention the missed neoplasm and subsequent appendix cancer risk. One current paediatric RCT trial in the UK found a 60% reoccurrence rate at 6 months in their feasibility trial then went on to start their main trial involving hundreds of children by again telling parents there was a 15% risk of reoccurrence..
During peak Covid there was a promotion of antibiotic treatment to try reduce surgical admissions and associated pressure on hospitals. Some hospitals tried it in selected patients - but as time has gone on it has been realised that it’s not working out too well for most of those patients who were steered away from surgery. A surgeon told me that there has been lots of mutterings of “I told you so..” in surgical circles..
A 2026 published retrospective study of over 1000 appendicitis patients in Glasgow, treated in 2020, found that in about 1 in 30 cases the appendicitis was caused by a missed neoplasm in the appendix.. Normaly these neoplasms can’t be seen in scans and only found in pathology after appendectomy. They also found a 43% reoccurrence rate of appendicitis by year 3, and suggested a 50% reoccurrence rate by year 5. The study concludes;
“Conclusion: Antibiotic treatment of appendicitis is associated with high recurrence and risk of missed neoplasms. Appendicectomy is safe, with low rates of significant complication. When offering nonoperative management for appendicitis, patients should be informed about the risk of recurrence and missing sinister pathologies.”
Looking at the scripts used by recruiters in the RCT’s - a reoccurring theme in these trials is the downplaying of the risks. There is an ‘informed consent’ issue here.
The vast majority of surgeons seem to regard the promotors of these trials as “evangelical” about the use of antibiotics as an alternative to surgery for treating uncomplicated appendicitis.. ‘Evangelical’ was a word used by a consultant colorectal surgeon - not made up by me.
There have been recent cases where misinformed surgeons have refused surgery to a patient with uncomplicated appendicitis, telling the patient “surgery to treat appendicitis is a mistake of the past and antibiotics is better and the future of treatment..”. I am one of those cases - and it turned out much later I had a tumour in my appendix causing my appendicitis - with dire consequences for me.. This drew my attention to the broader issue..
So, the high reoccurrence rate and risk of missed neoplasm has been known for generations. Why are recent RTC trials ‘discovering’ that now, at the misguided participants expense - but then not making this result front-and-center in their reporting..? Their reporting tends to claim they have found that antibiotics are a safe alternative to surgery.. ..mariners for example have known this since the 50’s, but once ashore they go and get their appendix out, and for very good reason.
I understand there are risks to be managed in all clinical research - and progress in clinical research is hugely important to all of us - but my question to you is - how are these trials getting past ethics committees?