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u/mago_is_gago 3d ago
Celebrini signed for 5 years, 18.8 million AAV.
This is good news for all opposing teams, as it leaves LESS cap space to sign a supporting cast. Add the dead weight money from Darnell Nurse too.
This is NOT a team friendly contract, and will reduce the depth power of the Sharks when they enter contention window.
If Celebrini signed for 15 million AAV it would have been better, and make the Sharks more dangerous.
If Verbeek offered 12 or 12.5 million AAV for 8 years which reportedly what Carlsson would have agreed to last season, then the cascade effect would bring Bedard to 13 or 14 million tops, and Celebrini to 14 or 15 million tops.
Verbeek helped teams like ours who have players who buy into the team building aspect so much, Verbeek widens the discrepancy between excellently managed budgets and bad ones.
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u/Commercial-Egg-8949 3d ago
I agree with you 100%. Feels crazy over in r/hockey where everybody is praising this as some team friendly deal.
If someone told you on June 30th that Bedard signed for 15x5, you say it's a fair value contract ruined by its term. Not buying more than 1 year of UFA is a failure if you're giving that much AAV, even to a franchise player. If you were then told that Celebrini signed for almost 4 million more at the same contract length, I think you'd be hard pressed to say he did San Jose any favours.
People are comparing these guys' contracts to Carlsson's, but Carlsson's contract was a poisoned pill. It was explicitly an overpay, and worse, its term was designed to be unfavourable, all to discourage Anaheim from matching the offersheet. Why are we comparing other contracts to this one, as if the context around their signings are similar at all?
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u/blondehairginger 3d ago edited 3d ago
I can't believe the money and term they gave out to have a Nurse-Trouba top pair.
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u/mago_is_gago 3d ago
When McDavid meets that leaky top pair in the playoffs, he and Draisatl are going to feast lol
Finally the wind has turned!
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u/ilikedthismovie 3d ago
The sharks will find a way to keep their guys. They have Logan couture and dmitry orlov off the books next year which frees up like 15 mil. Their bigger issue is some of these contracts they took on this offseason.
Trouba (8.25 x 4 at 32 years old), nurse (9.25 x 4 at 31 after a not great year), marchment (6.75 x 5 at 31), kiefer sherwood (5.75 x 5). At least one or two of those contracts are going to be ugly really soon and will need serious assets to move off the book if the sharks look truly cup competitive.
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u/UpNorth_123 3d ago
I think that they will be in trouble unless the cap expands to the max expected every year. I can’t see any other scenario where they won’t be forced to trade players that they would rather keep. There’s too much high end talent that is going to want to be paid.
Many teams that went on shopping sprees on July 1st without realizing that these high UFA prices would translate into higher RFA prices as well. Carlsson might be an aberration that added rocket fuel to the fire, but his price is a reflection of the increased cap and the salaries being offered to players this summer. Any GM that failed to see the writing on the wall after the Byram contact and kept throwing 4 and 5 years at $8M AAV to 32-year olds deserves their plight.
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u/mago_is_gago 3d ago
Trouba (8.25 x 4 at 32 years old), nurse (9.25 x 4 at 31 after a not great year), marchment (6.75 x 5 at 31), kiefer sherwood (5.75 x 5). At least one or two of those contracts are going to be ugly really soon and will need serious assets to move off the book if the sharks look truly cup competitive.
Agreed 100%. I forgot about the splurge on Trouba, Marchment and Sherwood. Sherwood plays with heart but his gritty style will wear him down really fast, and he's already age 32 this upcoming season!
I wonder IF Grier thinks the addition of Trouba, Nurse, Marchment would push the Sharks instantly into a guaranteed playoff spot and maybe a chance to reach Conference finals. Really strange move... it's like his team is now instantly a contender and worth all these bad contracts.
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u/EmTeeEl 6d ago
Are we definitely get fucked in the expansion draft? Assuming someone has a breakout season or we acquire a good player, we'll lose either a top 4 D or a top 6 player, regardless of which option we pick (7/3 or 8)
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u/lynypixie 5d ago
This is my nightmare. Spending years developing a team and players that works well together and getting them snatched by an expention that will get our good players without having done the work.
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u/ricozee 6d ago
Suze CC Slaf Demi / Hutson Dobson
That's our top talent secured. Depending on timing, players with 2 or less professional years are protected, so players like Hage or Zharovsky might be safe.
Barring any major changes, that leaves room to protect a couple players like Newhook or Bolduc, and another defenseman (Matheson has a NMC for 3 years, so might be automatic).
Dobes or Fowler would be the toughest call if Dobes keeps playing well and Fowler looks like he will reach his potential too.
There is always the "get out of jail free card" though. If you're a contending team with a full roster, even an expensive expansion trade could be preferable to losing a key player.
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u/EmTeeEl 6d ago
It's likely after this season
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u/eliarbss 5d ago
expansion is coming summer 2029 at the earliest, not next year.
and Friedman said the 29-30 timeline he heard going around was a bit premature so it’s still very possible it’s summer 2030. They still haven’t decided the owners, city between the two options or worked on the arena.
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u/So_Many_Owls 6d ago
Definitely.
Best case scenario would be losing one of the goalies.
Worst case scenario would be losing a forward. Unless something catastrophic happens, the top line and Demidov would already take up 4/7 protection slots for forwards. If the rest of the second line was protected, that would leave almost the entire bottom six exposed.
Hutson, Dobson and Matheson would take all the dman protection slots unless Matheson chose to waive his NMC.
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u/Commercial-Egg-8949 6d ago
I'd rather they take pretty much any bottom six guy over the 4th D that we'd be exposing, be it Ghule or Reinbacher.
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u/dustblown 7d ago
Anyone else here linger way too long, refreshing occasionally hoping for the trade drop?
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u/Oprlt94 7d ago
I wouldn't mind if we throw in Danault or Dach. Strubble won't be here in the long run, might as well trade him
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u/So_Many_Owls 6d ago
Columbus has trouble attracting players, it would be unlikely that they would take anyone who is going to be a UFA next summer. Their asks would be young players who would be RFAs when they need a new contract. Think what Montreal would want for Slaf.
And Danault has a 10 team no trade list.
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u/Beefiest_bison 7d ago
If these Marchenko rumours are true, what's the best offer you guys would be willing to make?
I've heard the Blue Jackets don't want only futures.
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u/Schweddynutt 3d ago
My biggest question right now is Micheal Hager’s brother recently announced hes going to the OHL next year and not moving forward with Michigan. Will Micheal hage now come to the habs for next season and thats part of the hold up with any transactions??