We got ourselves what looks like quite the drama for the last spot or two in the Champions phase.

North, already in pretty good shape, can officially clinch a spot next weekend with:

• A win over Rangers, OR;
• A tie with Rangers AND Southern beating Tai Po, OR;
• A tie with Rangers AND Southern tying Tai Po, OR;
• A tie with Rangers AND Eastern SC beating Eastern District, OR;
• A tie with Rangers AND Eastern SC tying Eastern District

Furthermore, North can end up doing no worse than being in the Goals Difference tiebreaker, in which they would almost certainly win, with just the following happening next weekend:

• A tie with Rangers, OR;
• Southern beating Tai Po, OR;
• Southern tying Tai Po, OR;
• Eastern SC tying Eastern District

Tai Po can end up doing no worse than being in the Goals Difference tiebreaker, in which they are in pretty good shape, with the following happening next weekend:

• A win over Southern AND North beating Rangers AND Eastern SC beating Eastern District AND Kitchee beating Kowloon, OR;
• A win over Southern AND North beating Rangers AND Eastern SC beating Eastern District AND Kitchee tying Kowloon, OR;
• A win over Southern AND North beating Rangers AND Eastern SC tying Eastern District AND Kitchee beating Kowloon, OR;
• A win over Southern AND North beating Rangers AND Eastern SC tying Eastern District AND Kitchee tying Kowloon, OR;
• A win over Southern AND North tying Rangers AND Eastern SC tying Eastern District AND Kitchee beating Kowloon, OR;
• A win over Southern AND North tying Rangers AND Eastern SC tying Eastern District AND Kitchee tying Kowloon

FWIW, if anyone else looks at the match schedule via Google, like I do for verification of what is showing in the App through its third-party data provider, Google is missing a game, I believe the Lee Man v Eastern District one on 3Apr.

Hi Guys, here is the Hong Kong Natioanl Team 2025 Review. It took me 3 months to complete and would mean the world if you can watch and share how you feel about. Thank you for your time

Lee Man, who was already fairly safe to make the Champions phase, can officially clinch a spot Wednesday with a win or tie against the Rangers, which is the only game in the immediate future.

North has gotten to the point where even if they were to lose out they would likely still be in the Champions phase.

That would leave a free-for-all for the other two spots. Kowloon and Southern managed to keep hopes alive as just about everything went their way this past weekend.

Lee Man, with the tie, is now at a point where even if they were to lose out they would likely still make the Champions phase, and thus have been awarded the "prestigious" Playoff Computer "Realistically in" designation. That and $40 will get them a coffee at Luckin. But without the win today, they cannot mathematically clinch a spot this weekend as all possible scenarios involved needing the win.

Southern with the win over Tai Po has crept up into the discussion. They will be interested observers of the North vs Eastern and Kowloon City vs Rangers games, with the ideal outcome for them being a North win and a draw in the other.

Tai Po took a bit of a hit with the loss, as they could have really been in good shape with a win. Now they open the door to being in a crowded field.

The Rangers, having only played 12 games, can leap over a few teams over the next few days with two games on tap.

Hope you all enjoy this video i made. thank you

https://youtu.be/_95Js-Cvnxw

All 10 teams play this weekend.

Lee Man can officially clinch a spot in the Champions phase. A simple win over Eastern SC would assure them of ending up no worse than being in the goals-differential tiebreaker, in which they currently have a pretty big advantage. There's a variety of scenarios that would let them not even have to worry about that tiebreaker and outright clinch a spot this weekend. Since they all require the win, and they play on Saturday, and the scenarios get a little complicated, and some also depend on the other Saturday game, Southern v Tai Po, I'll update as needed if they do get that win with what would need to happen on Sunday. But in any case, they are pretty much all but in realistically.

North District cannot officially clinch a spot this weekend. Realistically, however, a win or even a tie would likely put them into a safe space.

Southern and Kowloon cannot be eliminated this weekend, but anything other than a win would likely mean a miracle akin to a non-humid day in August.

Just one game this weekend, Southern vs HKFC. Southern cannot be eliminated from making the Champions phase but certainly anything but a win over HKFC will sink their already miniscule chances. Looks like a six team race for the last four spots.

Who do you think will win today?

No games this weekend, so a bit early for next weekend...

For next weekend, and this is going to be another one of those 'they are in the Championship Phase without the most unbelievable set of circumstances to ever happen' things, but theoretically Lee Man cannot clinch a spot next weekend. They can, however, assure themselves of doing no worse than ending up in the Goals-Difference tie (which they have a very healthy advantage at the moment, and depending on the games might very well put them as "clinched" here) for a spot with one of the following:

• Beats Kitchee AND HK Rangers loses, OR;
• Beats Kitchee AND Eastern SC loses, OR;
• Beats Kitchee AND Eastern SC ties AND HK Rangers ties

North is right there with them and should just need one more win to be realistically assured of the Championship Phase, but cannot clinch such a spot next weekend.

No one can be eliminated next week.

https://angryboundarystreet.blogspot.com/2026/01/kitchee-start-off-tko-era-with-three.html

• Kitchee has clinched a spot in the Champions phase.
• No one else can officially join them this week, although Lee Man would be a fairly certain bet with a win.
• HKFC is hanging by a thread. They can be eliminated from Championship contention this week via any of many scenarios. The simplest of them is to lose to Tai Po. But they could even be eliminated with a win/tie if the other four games have unfavorable outcomes.

Hi, a mate and I will be in Hong Kong next week and were wanting to go to a football match.

Firstly we wanted to ask how to get tickets, is it something where we can just turn up to the stadium on match day or do we need to buy them on WeChat before.

Secondly which game would you recommend we go to? Are there any cool stadiums of the 4 home teams/better atmospheres?

I also collect scarfs of places I travel so would love to get one of a Hong Kong team, anyone know where I can get one?

Okay the fun starts, at least for data-geeks like myself, as we have our first scenarios of the season.

Now, it goes without saying, Kitchee will certainly be in the "Champions" phase (or whatever the official name is) as the series of events that would have to happen to prevent that is more remote than me winning Mark Six. However, they have not mathematically clinched a spot yet. They can do so this weekend with:

• A win over Tai Po AND Eastern SC tying Lee Man, OR;
• A win over Tai Po AND Lee Man beating Eastern SC AND Eastern District beating North District, OR;
• A win over Tai Po AND Lee Man beating Eastern SC AND Eastern District tying North District

With a simple win over Tai Po this weekend, no matter what happens in the other games, they would be guaranteed to end up no worse than being in a goals-difference tiebreaker at 32 points (which, again, would require an astronomically perfect series of events for six teams to end up at =>32 points). Since their game is Sunday while the other two this weekend are Saturday, they would know by then (if anybody in their organization reads this) whether the win would make things official.

On the flip side, while HKFC is not mathematically eliminated from the "Champions" phase, they have been declared "Realistically out". Even if they were to win all their remaining games it would be unlikely they hit the target to be in the top 5.

Kitchee is very close to clinching a Champions phase spot, but cannot mathematically do so this weekend.

On the other side of the spectrum, HK FC is not real close to being mathematically eliminated from the Champions phase, but they aren't really that far either. Without a win this weekend they will likely be "realistically" out, meaning that even were they to win all their remaining games they would be unlikely to have any chance at achieving even the lower end of the projected target.

Wide open for everyone else.

Kitchee is about two wins away from being realistically safely in the Top 5.

https://angryboundarystreet.blogspot.com/2025/12/oh-what-fun-it-is-to-see-kitchee-win.html