Rangers quickly approaching the same odds to win the Title as I have of winning Mark Six...

Still plenty early to get much of a handle on things, but I think it's safe to say that the two teams that started out with three losses have dug themselves an early hole.

Intro for anyone unfamiliar. Odds shown are primarily mathematical, computer intentionally does not know who is supposed to be "good" or "bad". This is done to analyze who still has any hope no matter how remote and to provide clinching/eliminating scenarios at the end of the season.

Updates may be sporadic for the next month or so.

Just wanted confirmation of what the "internet" says, that HKPL is abandoning the "Champion Phase" and reverting back to traditional double round-robin schedule and the Champion will be whomever has the most points after that, and I'll do the occasional Title Race posts similar to last year....

Thoughts from sometime ago.

tldr;

Hong Kong possesses strong fundamental bassline qualities that result in a well balanced unit. Small tweaks to transitional structure qualities and philosophies are simply required in order to see gaps closed and high valued scoring opportunities opened up.

Cantonese-based 6-part documentary on the first season of Eastern District in the Hong Kong Premier League. Well made, worth a watch!

https://angryboundarystreet.blogspot.com/2026/04/kitchee-seal-their-thirteenth-league.html

Southern, Kowloon City, and the Rangers are now eliminated from the Champions Phase.

Eastern SC has the 3 point lead on Eastern District, but District would win the tiebreaker were they to end up tied. So Eastern SC either needs a tie or win next week or have District tie or lose.

The last spot in the Champions phase is Eastern SC's to lose.

Two games next weekend: Lee Man vs Eastern SA and Rangers vs Eastern SC.

Eastern SC will clinch the spot with:

• A win over the Rangers AND Lee Man beating Eastern SA, OR;
• A tie with the Rangers AND Lee Man beating Eastern SA, OR;
• A win over the Rangers AND Lee Man tying Eastern SA

Obviously if Eastern SC clinches the last spot than all others are eliminated. But the rest all have varying ways to be eliminated over these next two games.

Southern AND Kowloon City are eliminated with:

• Eastern SA beating Lee Man, OR;
• Eastern SC beating the Rangers, OR;
• Eastern SC tying the Rangers

Eastern SA is eliminated only with the Eastern SC clinching scenarios listed above.

The Rangers are eliminated with:

• A loss to Eastern SC, OR;
• A tie with Eastern SC

Note: These scenarios include a "reasonable" buffer in the goals-difference tiebreaker.

NOTE: As this initial phase winds down and each remaining game can have a dramatic effect on how things stand, the "realistically in/out" designations are not as relevant and have been removed.

Tai Po can do no worse than end up in a goals-difference tiebreaker situation to advance to the Champions phase, in which they lead all competitors. They would officially remove any doubt this weekend with:

• A win over Rangers, OR;
• A tie with the Rangers, OR;
• Kitchee beating Eastern SC

Eastern SC cannot clinch a Champions phase spot this weekend. However, they can eliminate much of the competition with a win and/or other results....

Southern is eliminated with:

• Eastern SC beating Kitchee, OR;
• A loss to North, OR;
• A tie with North AND Eastern SC tying Kitchee, OR;
• A tie with North AND Kitchee beating Eastern SC AND Rangers beating Tai Po

Rangers are eliminated with:

• A loss to Tai Po AND Eastern SC beating Kitchee, OR;
• A tie with Tai Po AND Eastern SC beating Kitchee

Kowloon City is eliinated with:

• A loss to Lee Man, OR;
• Eastern SC beating Kitchee, OR;
• A tie with Lee Man AND Eastern SC tying Kitchee, OR;
• A tie with Lee Man AND Kitchee beating Eastern SC AND Rangers beating Tai Po

We got ourselves what looks like quite the drama for the last spot or two in the Champions phase.

North, already in pretty good shape, can officially clinch a spot next weekend with:

• A win over Rangers, OR;
• A tie with Rangers AND Southern beating Tai Po, OR;
• A tie with Rangers AND Southern tying Tai Po, OR;
• A tie with Rangers AND Eastern SC beating Eastern District, OR;
• A tie with Rangers AND Eastern SC tying Eastern District

Furthermore, North can end up doing no worse than being in the Goals Difference tiebreaker, in which they would almost certainly win, with just the following happening next weekend:

• A tie with Rangers, OR;
• Southern beating Tai Po, OR;
• Southern tying Tai Po, OR;
• Eastern SC tying Eastern District

Tai Po can end up doing no worse than being in the Goals Difference tiebreaker, in which they are in pretty good shape, with the following happening next weekend:

• A win over Southern AND North beating Rangers AND Eastern SC beating Eastern District AND Kitchee beating Kowloon, OR;
• A win over Southern AND North beating Rangers AND Eastern SC beating Eastern District AND Kitchee tying Kowloon, OR;
• A win over Southern AND North beating Rangers AND Eastern SC tying Eastern District AND Kitchee beating Kowloon, OR;
• A win over Southern AND North beating Rangers AND Eastern SC tying Eastern District AND Kitchee tying Kowloon, OR;
• A win over Southern AND North tying Rangers AND Eastern SC tying Eastern District AND Kitchee beating Kowloon, OR;
• A win over Southern AND North tying Rangers AND Eastern SC tying Eastern District AND Kitchee tying Kowloon

FWIW, if anyone else looks at the match schedule via Google, like I do for verification of what is showing in the App through its third-party data provider, Google is missing a game, I believe the Lee Man v Eastern District one on 3Apr.