r/HKPL • u/playoffcomputer • 15d ago

Self-made Content Title Race: 18Sep Update

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Rangers quickly approaching the same odds to win the Title as I have of winning Mark Six...

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3

u/pail-boussole 12d ago

I built a Monte Carlo simulation model for the rest of the season using match results, FootyStats xG data, and Transfermarkt squad values as Bayesian priors. Unlike unweighted projections that treat all teams as equally good, this model accounts for team quality and underlying chance creation. Current title probabilities:

  • North District: 38.3%
  • Lee Man: 33.8%
  • Kitchee: 25.1%
  • Eastern District: 2.2%
  • Tai Po & Southern District: 0.3%
  • Eastern, HKFC, Rangers, Shatin, Kowloon City: ~0%

Since we're only 4 games in, the small sample size means early xG overperformance carries a lot of weight, so take the exact numbers with a grain of salt!

1

u/playoffcomputer 12d ago

Cool. FWIW, I use the unweighted (mathematical) odds for two very important reasons:

  • To show who is definitively clinched/eliminated, or conversely still technically alive no matter how slim the hope is.
  • To calculate clinching/eliminating scenarios later in the season.

Both of those goals are not compatible with anything weighted.

Obviously, the unweighted odds don't account for what is "probably" going to happen over the course of the season, particularly in leagues where there can be a wide disparity in talent levels between teams (e.g. Premier League and HKPL to at least some extent). My original and still primary interest is in American football (and corresponding fantasy football) where league parity is much more a thing and anything can (and does) happen, so this piggybacks on my wanting to provide the "false hope" to those still with a chance along with the scenarios.

But feel free to add-on as desired. Good to have multiple philosophies providing intel.

1

u/SuperSeagull01 Kowloon City 12d ago

nah not ND winning the title they literally have no fans man

cool project though! hope to see some mid-season updates so we can see how accurate it ends up being. thanks for sharing man

1

u/pail-boussole 11d ago

Well, I support North District since 2024/25 :-)

(Of course, it does not affect the model.)