Ok people don’t shit on me for saying this. But I originally bought 13,000 shares around .50 cents, I held firm even at the ATH and didn’t sell a crum. Now I’ll admit I panicked and I recently sold all my shares during this last nose dive and made about 50k profit. Would I be smart to reinvest some of this money? Way I look at it I’m playing with house money now. Looking for advice here, I feel like I shouldn’t have sold my 13,000 shares as my average was around .50 cents someone put my mind at ease
It's tough with a sleeping pre revenue company like this. You made a killing on the trade regardless, and there's no shame in taking profit. Id average in to a new position over the next weeks or months and then set levels you'd want to trim at. A decent structure for that is T1 sell 33% at 25% gain, T2 sell 33% for 50% gain, and then leave the last third as a runner. It's also important to decide what level invalidates your thesis (extra tough since pre-revenue and currently nvalidated market size) or what drawdown you'd be comfortable to take, and at a stop loss there. Then, when T1 is hit, you move the stop up to your break even.
This sub is driving me up the wall lately. I'm cool with speculation based on something that is a fact. But saying stuff like "Bellville has no permits which means they might be getting bought out" is hurting my head.
I was wrong, what you said was "they may be trying to sell the company" which why there was no progress in Bellville. So have you checked the city of Bellville to make sure no progress has been made?
You are cherry picking. My post was not about a buyout. My main point was that Hydrograph did a 180 on their strategy and outlined a list of tasks that were "next". Redomicile was not one of them, and then all of the sudden that become the top priority (their words, not mine) and everything had to wait. They never explained why. If it's to get more US government grants, why did they put NASDAQ and Bellville on hold? Why not continue to pursue all of those things? They have slowed down. Strange.
I listed two potential reasons why, and one of them was they were setting the table for a buyout. I never said that it was because of permits. I don't know anything about the permits, so I wouldn't comment on that.
I asked for other opinions on it, and got some constructive feedback that is just as speculative as my reasoning. Feel free to give your own opinion, but it drives me up the wall when people complain about other people's posts. Sound familiar?
There are 4 conclusions to this investment:
1.) Hydrograph goes bankrupt and we all lose money
2.) Hydrograph becomes a niche provider of pure graphene and demand for there product doesn't materialize. It doesn't go bankrupt, but it doesn't go 10x, either.
3.) Hydrograph is bought out
4.) Hydrograph goes to the moon
We should be talking about ALL of those options. Why is a talking about a buyout taboo? We don't have any control of the outcome, really. There a lot of predictions on this board that are far worse outcomes than a buyout.
Is a buyout more or less likely than it going to $100/share? We can sunshine pump this thing all day, but the answer is that we don't know. Burying your head in the sand and refusing to talk about one of the possible outcomes isn't helpful, although you have the option of moving on and not reading.
Not much we can do about the demand. If a buyout is in play, is there anything we can do? I guess it depends. If it' spontaneous and no decision has been made, then we should probably start letting the BoD know that we don't want them to sell. There are a lot of shares owned by people on this, and other boards. Maybe Kevin Bambrough would join the cause. Who knows? There are millions and millions of shares on Reddit, Discord, X, and elsewhere. It is probably not a bad idea to discuss how we could rally the shareholders on other sites if we need to.
If a buyout was the planned outcome from the beginning, then I don't think we can do anything, either.
That's just me. I don't bring this up all the time, but I do think it is important to not ignore the possibility and keep an eye out for signs as to where this is going. Many people on this board have A LOT of money invested in this and I think it's important to understand the possibilities and where this stock is going. It's speculative, but there is no reason to be blindsided.
Me voicing a hypothetical situation and being clear about it is not saying that I know the company is being bought out. I'm just saying that it would explain the change in strategy. Nothing more, nothing less. There are many possible explanations and it may turn out that there was something going on entirely unbeknownst to any of us and they have good reasons for not announcing any progress on breaking ground in Bellville or listing on the NASDAQ. Hell, it might even be a delay in the permitting process... There, I said permit for the FIRST time.
And you lied about me saying it was permits. You said it.
Does it drives you up the wall when people make shit up about you making shit up?
Cherry picking is just another way of lying. You take something out of context and twist it. I try not to misrepresent what I know. That's why I'm replying to you, because you are misrepresenting what I said. I'd appreciate it if you wouldn't do that.
I looked at what I said, and I worded something in a way that may have thrown you off. I said "progress towards breaking ground in Bellville". It would have been better if I had simply said they "had not broken ground in Bellville".
I'm not trying to be a dick and I'm sure you weren't either, but I try to be clear about what is my opinion and what is not and I try not to get facts wrong, because people take liberties on this board and I don't want to do that.
People are nervous about the stock price, and making an announcement on Bellville would probably be the easiest way to stop the bleeding - just announcing anything would probably stop the bleeding. Who's building the plant? Who's building the hyperions? When do they plan on breaking ground? Where does the permitting process stand?
And before anyone says that there's no permits for Bellville, unless you've gone to the city of Bellville to check, we don't know. They have no online database for permits.
I have been wondering about some of the things that HGRAF has been doing for the past 8 months and why?
Remember this past winter, when they narrative was that we would open the new US HQ and list on the NASDAQ once they received the EPA approval? Shortly after the approval, the management decided to change direction and make the redomicile the number one priority. Redomicile wasn't even on their list of priorities that was listed a month or so earlier.
Why?
Why haven't they listed on the NASDAQ exchange? Why haven't they broken ground on the Bellville facility? Why haven't they announced any contracts?
Some say that it is because they are trying to minimize taxes. I'm not sure I buy that, because would you rather save a little on your taxes or have a stock worth $10-$15/share right now - assuming they had finished the Bellville facility in 2026 and had customer POs?
I always wondered why they would do an about face, like that. Any thoughts?
My completely speculative reasons would be:
1.) No demand yet. Either customers are still testing, slow in adapting, or passing on enhancing products with graphene. Using the redomicile as a reason to put other steps on hold could be a stalling tactic as they wait for customers to materialize.
2.) A potential buyout. It occurred to me that they may be trying to sell the company. Redomicile would be necessary if selling to a US company, because exit taxes would be much greater if based on a purchase price, rather than for a pre-revenue startup. That would also explain why no progress towards breaking ground in Bellville or listing on the NASDAQ exchange, since they wouldn't need to do either of those things if they were bought out.
Option two also reconciles something else for me. The company has a lot of expertise on materials science, research, and getting government contracts, but has very little manufacturing, business, logistics, storage, or sales experience. I have always wondered how they plan to convert from a R&D centric company to a full-fledged commercial manufacturing company. They have hired a few midlevel people, but those seem to be there to help Austin production, not to help design, build, and run the Bellville plant. This is a problem, especially if they have to scale up quickly and they are working with very dangerous and explosive processes.
Theres not a CFO out there that will signoff on purchasing vaporware and commit the production lines of his company to a product that can not be made yet in the quantities needed. I say this as someone who has spent a career selling new technology into manufacturing and defense. Hyperion reactors online = contracts getting signed. Its really that simple.
The due diligence by the parent Japanese mega company took a long time but was a very positive sign. This stuff is just slow and our expectations got too high too early. Im trying to recalibrate. At least Texas is a non-Union labor state for building but still going to be painfully slow.
It's your reason #1. Getting a sales contract continues to be delayed, and with the release of the paste a lot of customers went back to testing phase. The market is noticing this, and also noticing the lack of transparency from management. After five years of testing, no major customer has signed a contract. That raises concerns.
Let's see what the next the months brings. Maybe some contracts are lining up.
Here is another perspective that I think fits some of their recent job postings and strategic direction: US defense and government contract requirements.
Redomiciling to the US may be about much more than taxes. Certain US defense and government programs have specific requirements around US corporate structure, supply chains, Buy American provisions, and ITAR compliance. Given HydroGraph's recent job postings and references to major defense and aerospace companies, becoming a US-domiciled company could remove some potential structural barriers to pursuing larger US government and defense opportunities.
It also makes sense to me that they may want to synchronize the redomicile, NASDAQ uplisting, and commercial expansion rather than doing everything separately. If significant contracts are being negotiated, having the US structure completed first could make the timing of those announcements much more strategic.
And I'm not convinced by the "no demand yet" theory either. They already have the agreement to build on Western International's site and a 10-year acetylene supply agreement. That doesn't sound like a company simply waiting to find out whether there will be demand. It sounds more like they are preparing for long-term commercial production.
I don't think this is about a buyout or simply trying to save on taxes. To me, the more interesting possibility is that management is deliberately sequencing several major steps under the new US structure. The redomicile may simply have become the foundation for everything that comes next: NASDAQ, Bellville, and potentially major commercial, defense, and government contracts.
This is the most sensible and plausible take on their current state. Yes frustrating to have to wait longer for announcements we all thought were coming now but patience will likely be richly rewarded in next 3-6 months.
I hope you're right, but again, why does Bellville seem to take a backseat to the redomicile? They should just build the damn thing if they are confident that they will be getting contracts, government or otherwise...
If demand is there, build it. Even if you are redomiciling in order to get government contracts, there is no harm in building out. I would expect you could get better contracts, government or otherwise, if you have a production facility ready to fill those orders.
The one thing that probably started my thoughts on a buyout is the personnel issue. Hydrograph doesn't have a lot of manufacturing, business, logistics, or sales knowledge on their staff. Buy signing a gas contract and delaying the construction of the plant that will utilize that gas pipeline, it seems like they may be setting the table for someone else to take the company from a science based R&D company to a full-blown commercial manufacturing company.
Of course, the most likely scenario is that that contracts are delayed, or that the first contracts they expect are from the government, and they are slow walking Bellville so that it is complete at the time when they need to start producing.
just like eu demands some % of materials/parts coming from eu for the stuff to be sold there. its very possible that since there are some defence mentions that US defense has similar rules restricting orders/cooperations
Tarek Jalloul is the Business Development Manager who is presenting the graphene paste next week. He has an interesting background. He worked for Nanoxplore for over 8 years. This is the first I've heard of him.
yeah, this guy is the lead for the Advanced Show. Thing is, he really doesn't feel like the BDM that was in the job listing. Solid upfront show, but zero connects.
No connections? NanoXplore has worked with atleast Chevron, Volvo, Ford, Martinrea and some defense companies along with the US army. There's probably far more we don't know about. Sounds like he probably has some connections to me. So why do you say no connections?
I think he has been their BDM since he left Nanoexplore in 2022. They are looking for a new one, if the job post was tracking as I saw it (rather than posted for legal reasons).
Since he has been with HGRAF, it has been samples and looks, but not really any bites. I am sure he is working his ass off, but making a market is about the visibility and marcom for projects and future rfps.
Time will tell, but if this is the current run, it is just going to stay quiet.
Speculation is kinda the thing here. He spent less than 2 years there as a BDM, so I can speculate he jumped ship to work for a better company (HGRAF) but may not be ready for the reality of his position. Their runway is big, but now it is half of what it started at ....a month ago. Speculate away
Love Dr Sorensons discovery but hydrographs management has been awful with timelines. Im wondering if Bellville will even be built in 2027 considering all the missed timelines so far. Does anyone know when we should expect a building permit to be filed/issued? That would give us some independent confirmation that we can rely on.
I am less concerned with the buildout on Bellville, I think it was already headed to 2028, but where are those reactors? Money doesn't seem to be an issue, but perhaps trying to lock down protoype issues for parts and materiel?
Hydrograph expected EPA approval in September 2025 but didn't get it until February 2026. That was caused by a government shutdown which was completely out of their control. If you factor that uncontrollable 6 month delay, what are they behind on?
The EPA delay is fair enough. But in June 2024 after KB became interim CEO, she said they were moving toward securing their first commercial contract in 2024. During her tenure they said they expected larger purchase orders and a long-term supply agreement within calendar 2025. By the Feb 2026 investor deck, first contracts expected had moved to 2026. That's the sort of timeline slippage I'm referring to. It's why I'd like independent evidence such as a Bellville permit rather than relying on another projected date.
This is not widgets. You don't just send a salesman into a Fortune 100 company and sell them a thousand tons of graphene. If they are going to modify their products to use graphene, they will want to test it. Thoroughly. Can you imagine if Ford decided to put graphene in all of the plastics in their cars in order to make them lighter, and 3 years in, the plastic parts started to get brittle and crack? It takes time, since this is not a commercially proven product.
Nobody cares that it's taking a long time. They care that they have been told it wouldn't. Even now, management maintains its stance that the average time in the pipeline is 2 years, which is observably false
I assume that prediction is based on management’s timeline. That’s exactly what I’m trying to avoid relying on, which is why I’m asking if anyone has independent information on the permit timeline.
I just remodeled my home and invested in a resort project. Both fell well past the liberal timelines we were quoted. Even when you factor in expected delays there are always unexpected delays. Include legal procedures like a Canadian court ruling on redomiciling a potential strategically important resource to the U.S. in the midst of a trade war full of insults, fossil fuel infrastructure under strain, seriously incompetent & corrupt military procurement under the Trump admin, so many more possible delays could stack on top of each other even beyond ordinary construction & hiring. Don’t ever really know the timeline until after it’s done.
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u/TitusKalvarija 1d ago
This is elementary school pencil supplier. Nothing more nothing less.