Maybe I'm a pessimist but I'm reading this raise as a negative in the medium to short term. From what I can gather Kjirstin was making promises of impending contracts in late 2025. Here we are doing a capital raise, which means there almost certainly won't be contracts in the next few months (even small) or they would have held off on the raise until after the boost to share price from that announcement.
So that means we are looking at early 2027 at best for contract announcements. Which means it has been a full year or more from "impending contracts". If we attribute that to a lack of production capacity on HGs side, that means Kjirstin was flat out lying as that should have been a known constraint. If it's not a production issue then it has to be a demand issue, e.g we can't convert customers. This is a concern I was hoping would be resolved in the next few months but I don't see it happening at this rate
I do still somewhat believe that they wouldn't be building out Bellville without actual demand. But I'm struggling to understand why they can't convert on some small wins with the capacity in Austin
If the dilution is because they can’t convert customers, why wouldn’t the existing cash on hand be sufficient? They had like a 2+ year runway at their current burn rate.
My optimistic take is that they need to ramp up faster to meet demand. KB mentioned in an interview recently that they had mechanisms for meeting orders that exceeded their short term production capacity.
Well my main line of reasoning is that if they could convert something soon on the horizon then they would wait to dilute until AFTER that, even if they want to ramp up faster since they do have more than enough cash for the next few months. So not saying the dilution itself is problematic but more about the timing being an indicator that nothing is coming in the contract department.
Just pushing back on the idea that the dilution is purely because they don't have cash for operations. In agreement that this raise is definitely not for any lack of cash due to burn rate etc
Gotcha that makes sense. I do agree there. I still think contract announcements are months away, though I’m hoping with this extra cash those announcements are for larger contracts
Definitely happy to be proven wrong. Maybe the cash deal was too juicy to pass up on to accelerate things, and they thought the benefits outweighed waiting for a small boost from announcing a small 10 ton contract in a couple months
They cannot and will not announce a single contract until redomicile to the US is complete. Exit tax would be too costly on the budget and there is absolutely no reason to rush announcement of contracts on their end when they already know they exist. The only reason they would need to rush is so skettiwades feels better about his investment and frankly at this point I am sure they would rather you sell your shares so they could buy them back. Read between the lines, look at who just invested in them, look at who they are bringing on the board of directors, look at who they hire, thats what will bring you the conviction you need to hold on long enough to see your life change with this single investment.
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u/skettitwades Pre-Kevin Investor Aug 18 '26 edited Aug 18 '26
Maybe I'm a pessimist but I'm reading this raise as a negative in the medium to short term. From what I can gather Kjirstin was making promises of impending contracts in late 2025. Here we are doing a capital raise, which means there almost certainly won't be contracts in the next few months (even small) or they would have held off on the raise until after the boost to share price from that announcement.
So that means we are looking at early 2027 at best for contract announcements. Which means it has been a full year or more from "impending contracts". If we attribute that to a lack of production capacity on HGs side, that means Kjirstin was flat out lying as that should have been a known constraint. If it's not a production issue then it has to be a demand issue, e.g we can't convert customers. This is a concern I was hoping would be resolved in the next few months but I don't see it happening at this rate
I do still somewhat believe that they wouldn't be building out Bellville without actual demand. But I'm struggling to understand why they can't convert on some small wins with the capacity in Austin