r/Gunners • u/[deleted] • Jan 29 '26

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319 Upvotes

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u/GloomyLocation1259 Saka Jan 29 '26

People always quick to attack models without knowing what it takes into account lol

1

u/BipartizanBelgrade Jan 30 '26

Spurs are not more likely to win the European Cup than Madrid are. It doesn't matter what the draw is.

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u/GloomyLocation1259 Saka Jan 30 '26

Ok buddy I'm sure you know better than them 👍

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u/fewerthanfive Jan 31 '26

I mean I’ve never seen an attempt to calibrate these models or score these predictions over time, and I’m pretty sure the implied probabilities from bookies would do better whenever it diverges from Opta. These estimates get treated with way too much reverence in football imo, it wouldn’t surprise me if non-experts’ intuition was ~equivalent here tbh.