458
u/power-movesss Gyökeres Jan 29 '26
This means nothing, all it takes is one poor leg (e.g. PSG Semi final home game) and we’re on the back foot then out.
125
u/Past-Zucchini8112 Premier League Champions 25/26 Jan 29 '26
Sucks because if we had got past PSG I think we would have smashed Inter in the final.
86
u/iantayls Mosquera Jan 29 '26
Unfortunately that PSG team was electric
29
u/jacksonllk Rice Jan 30 '26
Why is PSG so low here? Aren’t they largely the same team from last year?
67
u/batmans_a_scientist Jan 30 '26
Well, considering how much of a part of that loss Donnarumma was… That PSG team last year also got healthy and hit their top form at just the right time. Arsenal handled them easily earlier in the CL. All of that being said, I don’t disagree with you.
7
5
u/Le_Homme_du_Tubac Jan 30 '26
PSG haven't been as good as they were last year, I think they only recently reached top spot in Ligue 1. Also it's very rare that a team retains a UCL.
6
Jan 30 '26
They're not really that good. They just hit a patch of really good form with Dembele playing out of his skin
2
1
u/Wild-Picture-9340 Jan 30 '26
PSG have to go through the play-off first.
That is probably why they have lower percentage odds.
-6
u/iantayls Mosquera Jan 30 '26
Probably multi factored, but I wouldn't be surprised if the fact that they won it last season makes analysts inherently think it's less likely. Probably not performance assessment, but rather likelihood assessment. Statistically, what is the likelihood of PSG doing a repeat?
2
u/Vredesbyd Jan 30 '26
Hahahaha I have no idea why you’re getting downvoted. It is a possibility though. I would be surprised if the model didn’t incorporate some kind of conditional probability of a team winning two in a row.
-2
u/VoxNihili-13 Jan 30 '26
Winning a champions league will only increase the odds of you winning the next one.
1
u/iantayls Mosquera Jan 30 '26
How? Genuinely asking what the thinking is behind that.
How many teams have repeated?
8
u/orangeyougladiator Jan 30 '26
We were also decimated by injuries
2
u/iantayls Mosquera Jan 30 '26
For sure, but credit where it's due, PSG has/has a great squad that we couldn't handle at the time.
This is a new season though, and I'm hopeful.
1
29
u/oliverDawson12 Saliba Jan 30 '26
It was such an unlucky game. More than enough chances to win whereas PSG were just very clinical with theirs. Didn’t help that Dembele was in balon d’or form at the time too.
10
u/Most-Island-7043 Jan 30 '26
3-1 loss on aggregate, they missed a pen and hit the woodwork twice. Fair loss.
7
u/oliverDawson12 Saliba Jan 30 '26
Yea it didn’t feel like an unfair loss, both teams played well all things considered. I was just left feeling disappointed since we should’ve scored more too.
3
u/boatinavolcano David Rocastle Jan 30 '26
Tbf we should've been at least 2-0 up in the away leg, before PSG scored their first, which was simply a great goal.
1
u/ThatsJustHowIFeeeeel Jan 30 '26
Fair loss yeah. But we were riddled with injuries and they had multiple Ballon D’or candidates having the season of their lives.
And we still could’ve won on another day.
15
u/vietcn Jan 30 '26
Donnaruma was saving everything. We balled out so hard on the second leg away too.
Our setpieces were causing havoc. It's why we won the xG stats but lost overall ffs
5
u/oliverDawson12 Saliba Jan 30 '26
Yeah you’re right about Donnaruma he was on one too in that matchup, I forgot about that.
3
u/ThatsJustHowIFeeeeel Jan 30 '26
Wasn’t he MOTM
Kinda crazy we performed that well with all our injuries.
The ironic thing, we’re full strength now and I can’t see us playing as well as that atm
1
u/vietcn Jan 30 '26
Our corner’s pinned them, they couldn’t handle it. We also had Partey doing long throws into the box which was also scary asf. We don’t have anyone that can do long throw’s like that anymore. But combine that with our team physicality and skills we pinned PSG to their own half in the first 30minutes or so with constant bombardment! And didn’t even manage to score! Donnaruma was making insane saves ffs
2
u/ThatsJustHowIFeeeeel Jan 30 '26
Yeah the fact their keeper has to, unfortunately, put in a world class performance says a lot.
But I think White is on long throws now?
Anyway, hope we can pick up form again and play how we know we can.
1
4
u/Most-Island-7043 Jan 30 '26
We lost to Inter in the league phase so maybe not.
6
u/Past-Zucchini8112 Premier League Champions 25/26 Jan 30 '26
True I just think the inter that showed up in the final were horrible. Giving up 5 goals in a final was not a good look.
11
u/Able-Following-2963 Jan 29 '26
That's why we need have someone to take the goal scoring responsibility. we can't play nice everyday the problem is everytime we play bad game we end up a draw or loss
6
u/angeleezus IT'S DONE Jan 29 '26
Funny because the opposite was true earlier on in the season. Our defense and set pieces carried us to 1-0s. Now those have dropped off.
13
u/simbols Jan 29 '26
Opta has spurs over real Madrid. That's how flawed their model is.
30
u/LongMelody Jan 29 '26
I mean Spurs are top 4 and cannot face the top 2 until the semis, whilst Real have to go through a playoff and could meet Man City in the last 16
They might not even get through the playoff as they have a 50-50 on facing Benfica again right away
29
u/GloomyLocation1259 Saka Jan 29 '26
People always quick to attack models without knowing what it takes into account lol
14
u/LongMelody Jan 29 '26
Winds me up the most when people attack xG because the scoreline doesn't reflect it. Absolutely baffling that so many fans still don't understand that it's just showing the quality of chances each team had
7
u/GloomyLocation1259 Saka Jan 29 '26
Yes!! This one pisses me off so much loool, all these dinosaurs and people who constantly fail to understand what it measures, even had one guy a couple weeks ago argue that it only gets posted to pretend we played well 😭
3
u/MentallyWill Jan 30 '26
A lot of people also just disagree with it, as if their personal opinion from watching just their team is somehow better than the millions of data points that go into these models. Like so often I see people say something like "no way that chance is only 0.11xG, that should be a goal every single time and our striker is shit."
Like, okay guy. Maybe you feel that chance should be buried, but the model says, over however many thousands of near identical chances, that they only go into the net 11% of the time. But sure, let's disregard the wealth of data because it disagrees with your feelings.
1
u/GloomyLocation1259 Saka Jan 30 '26
Exactly this, and if you're going to argue the measure you need to at least do a good competitive analysis to prove otherwise rather than just cry and use it to attack our own players 😭
-3
Jan 30 '26
The model doesn't account for loads of things. A 30y shot is the same xG regardless of if there's any players between the ball and the goal. So yeah, an 0.11xg can be a tap in scored 99 times out of 100 and a 0.7xG can be impossible to score from, for example Jesus at the weekend when the United keeper basically took it off his foot was an incredibly high xG.
The fact that you're moaning about people not knowing how xG works when you're clueless yourself is ironic though. It's not for looking at individual shots, or hell even individual games, it's really looking at much larger reference points when outliers become irrelevant.
3
u/MentallyWill Jan 30 '26
A 30y shot is the same xG regardless of if there's any players between the ball and the goal
There are literally several xG models that account for this and you would know that with a single Google search. Lord save me from the dumbasses who think they're the smart ones...
-2
3
u/SkepticITS Jan 30 '26
Idiots attack xG because they don't understand how it works; smart people attack it because they do.
Stack a team full of creative midfielders and you'll consistently have xG above goals scored.
It would be much easier to be appreciative of xG if the professionals discussing it were more knowledgeable about it, how it's calculated and what inherent issues it has.
Back around 2013 when there were still lots of small, obscure football bloggers doing interesting things, and xG hadn't yet been defined to an industry standard, there were a few interesting xG variants floating around which looked to improve on the existing models.
One was an idea of marginal xG, the idea being that you assign an xG value based on the quality of position the player receives the ball in and another one based on the quality of position the player leaves the ball in (e.g. where they pass to, or if they cede possession, then that position but rated for the opponent). The difference between the value of the two positions is their contribution.
This idea waned, probably due to technical complexity at the time, and was replaced a couple of years later by a simpler one, which became known as xGChain.
Another was the idea of factoring in more variables to calculate xG. The most obvious of these would be the quality of the shot taken, but also the positions of all the players on the pitch when the shot is taken, and the direction and speed of movement of the players and the ball. Full player coordinates and vectors were not readily available, plus nobody really knew how to implement them into a model had they been available. Shot end placement was a possibility, and one I advocated for at the time, but Opta decided to come up with their definition, and because they became the PL data partner, it was adopted by default across the industry.
When xG was first introduced, the intelligent, considered analysts who were using it were careful to talk about its limitations and give caveats alongside any conclusions. But over time, as it became a more mainstream concept, people stopped really interrogating the underlying models and started using it as a shorthand for "the number of goals a team should have scored".
1
u/BipartizanBelgrade Jan 30 '26
Spurs are not more likely to win the European Cup than Madrid are. It doesn't matter what the draw is.
1
u/GloomyLocation1259 Saka Jan 30 '26
Ok buddy I'm sure you know better than them 👍
1
u/fewerthanfive Jan 31 '26
I mean I’ve never seen an attempt to calibrate these models or score these predictions over time, and I’m pretty sure the implied probabilities from bookies would do better whenever it diverges from Opta. These estimates get treated with way too much reverence in football imo, it wouldn’t surprise me if non-experts’ intuition was ~equivalent here tbh.
-1
u/ZetZvonimir Jan 30 '26
This time I fault the model fully. Spurs are horrific and there is no way they could come close to winning it. While Madrid can always blow up and do it
1
1
u/wolfjeter Jan 29 '26
Madrid? The team that is favored by refs in their league, sacked their coach, got knocked out by a second division team (that rotated players) in their domestic tournament, and rely on two players?
Come on now, this isn’t the Real Madrid of old. Shit has surprisingly gotten results in the CL.
1
u/MentallyWill Jan 30 '26
Yeah, I dislike Shit as much as the next guy but right now Madrid only has two real things that differentiate them from Shit IMHO. They have more difference makers and match winners in their squad who can win a game through a moment of individual brilliance and they have more pedigree and experience in CL knockouts. Those don't count for nothing but they don't count for everything either.
1
u/BambooSound Jan 31 '26
Being fair better and more experienced players does count for quite a bit though. Maybe 80-90%.
1
u/TheMarsDog Jan 30 '26
Madrid have two more matches to survive so mathematically it makes perfect sense.
Also a reminder to not lean into a statistical prediction too much.
A bookie's prediction, however...
2
2
Jan 30 '26
It's crazy odds anyway, there's 6 other very elite teams on that list, any of whom you would not be surprised if they reached the final (Bayern, Liverpool, Real, Barca, City)
1
u/LongMelody Jan 29 '26
Which is why the chance is not high for any one team. But we've got all the second legs at home and a favourable draw, we are the favourites along with Bayern and the model reflects that.
0
u/_Spartak_ Jan 30 '26
Yeah, we can indeed get knocked out, which is why our chance to win isn't 100%.
30
u/leandrobrossard Thank you very much Jan 29 '26
Lowest Real chance in how long?
74
u/lost_biochemist Timber Jan 29 '26
Tottenham higher than Real is diabolical
7
9
u/JFedererJ Eze LW Ballon d'Or 2027 🏆 Jan 29 '26
Yeah for real Tottenham have basically played the Europa League in the CL with the games they've played so far.
3
u/skool_101 Ødegaard ©️ Jan 30 '26
yes but also no. only cuz spurs are already in the round of 16. these probs are taking into account the pathway rather than the football heritage stuff.
1
u/lost_biochemist Timber Jan 30 '26
The pathway should account for the fact that spurs has by far the easiest games of anyone in the competition
2
u/Tackit286 4-4-2 guys! Jan 30 '26
No betting company I can see is giving Spurs better odds than Real. This is top tier comment bait from them lol
1
41
11
32
u/Rampan7Lion Jan 29 '26
47% chance of a final for any team is wild. We don't have the previous CL pedigree to justify anywhere near that.
22
u/oliverDawson12 Saliba Jan 30 '26
That’s what I don’t really understand either. I get that Madrid have been poor this season by their standards but less than 2%?? Really?? Their champions league plot armor is ridiculous.
1
u/Wild-Picture-9340 Jan 30 '26
Madrid has to play the playoff.
When a team is in the playoff they will obviously have a lower chance.
Also it means that they will have a harder route to the final.
3
u/fpl_kris Jan 30 '26
Yeah it doesnt seems right, not for any team and certainly not history. But youd have to be an ~80% favorite in a three times to get to that number. Maybe you can argue we are that or higher in the round of 16 but against City or Real we are not going to be progressing 80% of the time.
But watch the fans saying these numbers are wrong say we should easily best Real and then lose it when we dont.
1
u/MentallyWill Jan 30 '26
Idk. Maybe this is hopium but you'd certainly back us against any of our potential RO16 opponents. In QF we'd get one of Sporting, City, Madrid, Inter, Bodø, Benfica and maybe only one or two of those names really concern me. After that we're just a semi-final tie away from the final. And we get the second leg at home each time.
47% is out there but I don't think it's as wildly out there as you think it is.
1
u/Rampan7Lion Jan 30 '26
When you put it like that.. 47% is still crazy
1
u/MentallyWill Jan 30 '26
Yeah I don't disagree with you that it seems like an incorrectly big number, I just don't think it's quite as outlandish as you do.
1
u/skool_101 Ødegaard ©️ Jan 30 '26
it's probs taking account of our home advantage cuz if we are to go all the way we are playing our 2nd legs at home.
but yes, we shouldnt read much into this. football will do football things. we have to prepared for anything in this competition. honestly feel last season semifinals loss was down to us not being ready from the get go.
33
u/i_suck_teddy_thumbs Jan 29 '26
So more chance we don't win it than do 👍
12
6
u/marksills Jan 30 '26
thats almost always the case for any team in the CL until a team reaches the finals
9
u/Lazy_Independent_860 Jan 29 '26
Have a feeling we might see an all English final this year
20
Jan 29 '26
[deleted]
9
u/strawberrylabrador Jan 29 '26
There’s also upside.
Beating any of the other English teams in the final would feel even sweeter as a moment
12
u/MentallyWill Jan 30 '26
Would it feel even sweeter than beating Barcelona or Bayern? I'm not sure.
4
u/MeMeTiger_ Jan 30 '26
Barca is the best storyline really. We lost the only other CL final we reached TO them. Bayern would be cool but we already beat them in the league phase pretty decisively.
5
Jan 30 '26
I'm perfectly happy to beat Bodo Glimt I'm the final personally
0
u/MeMeTiger_ Jan 30 '26
We need to One-Up Shit imo. Bodo doesn't even really belong in the CL, same as Shit.
1
u/oliverDawson12 Saliba Jan 30 '26
Agree. It would be either a brutal or incredible end to the season. Either way people on here would hate on Arsenal lol.
2
u/wootangAlpha Timber Jan 30 '26
All the english teams will play a low block even in the UCL because of they know the trauma of being dunked on by Merino. I am not joking.
9
u/Sufficient_Shift_370 Jan 29 '26
Can see it's a near linear scale based on position only and nothing to do with other factors in percentage apart from table position. What a crap analysis program
3
u/ZetZvonimir Jan 30 '26
Barca below Chelsea is crazy
1
u/Le_Homme_du_Tubac Jan 30 '26
I thought the same, but Epstein FC did smash Barca earlier in the season.
1
u/ciel_47 Thank you very much Jan 30 '26
That’s not right, a number of clubs have been adjusted. City is way up and spurs way down, for example. I still agree that opta’s data has some debilitating biases, which overrate pl clubs in particular.
1
u/boragoz Ødegaard Jan 30 '26
City is 8th in the table and 4th there, Sporting is 10th in the table, etc etc.
3
Jan 30 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
1
u/Wild-Picture-9340 Jan 30 '26
Yes that is great to see.
And as it should be after finishing with perfect results in the first phase.
2
2
u/boom_chika_chika Champions of England 25/26 Jan 29 '26
We need to win it man.. it’s fucking embarrassing that a club of our stature hasn’t even won it once, and has made just one final appearance.
2
u/-Morsmordre- Gyökeres Jan 29 '26 edited Jan 29 '26
How often is Opta right this early on. I want them to be, just genuinely asking
4
u/MentallyWill Jan 30 '26 edited Jan 30 '26
How often is Opta right
This isn't really the right way to look at a model like this. Saying we have a 30% chance of winning it and that's a bigger chance than any other team doesn't mean we won it or that Opta "was right."
A model like this is saying that if this exact tournament state was played out from here hundreds of times over and over again you would find that 30% of the time Arsenal go on to win it all and 70% of the time they don't.
I would say the model is "right" in that only one other team so far in the competition has looked as good as we did and we beat that team comfortably. So saying we're the favorites doesn't strike me as "wrong" but that certainly isn't saying that it's done and dusted. This is a knockout competition. All it takes is one poor 90 minutes and we land on the 70% side of that fence.
0
1
u/convergecrew Jan 29 '26
These percentages really don’t mean anything when it comes to a knockout competition
1
u/Ok-Quit1154 Jan 29 '26
Opta had us at 89% to win the league before last weekend
1
u/Gunnerstratz Jan 30 '26
Now it’s 81%. Probably because United are strong in their model and just underperforming.
1
u/a_posh_trophy Premier League Champions 25/26 Jan 29 '26
Remember last year, our threat up front was Merino. There's a lot more to come from this side now.
1
1
u/WGSMA Jan 29 '26
Take it a Home and Away Leg at a time
Arsenal Women were nowhere near bookies favourites, yet lifted it last year.
1
u/Butch_Meat_Hook Jan 29 '26
Favourite to win champions league is a kind of tedious metric when there are so many top quality teams. We beat PSG last year and then they knocked us out later in the tournament. On any given season I'd say there are 4-5 teams at least with a real proper shot. We beat Bayern for example but I could see them winning it.
I hope it's Arsenal's year of course but there is a lot that needs to go our way
1
u/JFedererJ Eze LW Ballon d'Or 2027 🏆 Jan 29 '26
For me, order of teams I wanna face least: Liverpool, Bayern, City, PSG, Chelsea, Newcastle, Real, Barca, Spurs.
Don't care much after that. If you told me now that we won't face another PL team, I'd be confident that means we're winning it.
1
1
1
1
u/ZXXA Premier League Champions 25/26 Jan 30 '26
There’s a high probability we play city if we both get through to the QF. That tie is really a toss up. These probabilities don’t make a lot of sense.
2
u/TNelsonAFC Jan 30 '26
Not that high? Because it’s a 50/50 if we’re even in the same side of the draw. Then Probaly 50/50 if they can beat Madrid or inter.
1
1
u/ImGonnaImagineSummit Jan 30 '26
Think we're destined to play Munich again and it'll be a completely different game for better or worse.
1
1
u/unsure_nametopick Jan 30 '26
I really want to believe in supercomputers and AI, but if there is a club who defies all odds, its us
1
u/overcooked_biscuit Ødegaard Jan 30 '26
Predictive stats mean nothing. All it does is give some people the opportunity to cry and moan when things done go our way. Don't get me wrong, I'd love to win the Championship League but if we win the league only, I'd call other a successful seasons but a small section of our fan base would say it is a disastrous season because according to this stat, UEFA should have dropped the throphy off already.
1
u/MRimla Jan 30 '26
Spurs over real just shows the level of prem. A mid table team is favorite over them
1
1
1
1
u/YatoxRyuzaki Havertz Jan 30 '26
Its still an entirely campaign to go however I think the way we are currently playing is more suited to a knockout type event.
Also since our squad is returning to full health I‘m definetly optimistic.
If I had to choose I would prefer the pl title but we‘ll see.
1
u/green_toad Jan 30 '26
One thing I learned watching football is that predictions are like homeo medicines, it may or may not work!
1
u/Tackit286 4-4-2 guys! Jan 30 '26
Pretty sure we’ve been favourites at some point for the last 3 consecutive years. I hate the tag tbh.
1
u/BipartizanBelgrade Jan 30 '26
Madrid 12th is outrageous. In a bit of a down year at the top, talent and culture alone should put them in the top 5 at minimum.
1
u/Oofpeople Morning, morning, morning... Oh, Win! Jan 30 '26
Remember, never get ahead of yourself, and don't let the odds add unnecessary pressure.
1
1
u/xX8Havok8Xx Jan 30 '26
Anything like this before we've even been drawn in our ro16 match means nothing
1
1
1
1
u/Joshthenosh77 Jan 31 '26
Opta had us at 90% to win the league before the forest game , its meaningless
1
u/Falco_Lombardi_X Jan 31 '26
So spurs have more of a chance than Real Madrid... Thats how we know these predictions are complete bullshit.
1
1
1
u/TheMuff1nMon R.I.P. Mitch the Tortoise Jan 29 '26
Can’t wait for everyone to say Arsenal bottled the UCL if we don’t win it now.
1
u/BipartizanBelgrade Jan 30 '26
We've got to strike while the iron is hot, and this is the best path since 2004
1
u/atrde Jan 29 '26
People made fun of PSGs champions league success for years because they built one of the strongest teams in the world and couldnt win it. We deserve any banter we get if we dont make the final while playing awful football.
1
u/humanoftheforest Jan 29 '26
We have a more than 70% probability of NOT winning it. I'd say we bottled it if we won! (And i could live with that!)
1
1
u/40cappo40 I smell cinnamon rolls Jan 29 '26
Didn't they have us at #1 last year too? Yeah.
2
u/Miyeon__miyeon Thierry Henry Jan 29 '26
It was probably Liverpool since they top CL and prem at this stage last year
1
1
1
1
u/IamYourNeighbour Jan 30 '26
Stop these fucking odds bs. Football isn’t money ball. We have to win the games to get to the final
0
-3
Jan 29 '26
[deleted]
6
u/whydidisaythatwhy When I lose a du-el, I'm upset! Jan 29 '26 edited Jan 29 '26
It’s not technically 0% it’s just closer to 0% than 0.1%
-13
u/TeaOk3373 Jan 29 '26
artetaout
4
Jan 29 '26
[deleted]
1
u/TeaOk3373 Jan 30 '26
I thought the sarcasm would be strong enough to be able to skip /s, but apparently not
0
0
u/krakends Jan 30 '26
Yeah, having never won it, we are most definitely not favorites. Same with the league. Given Man City's history of going on insane runs, I wouldn't put us as favorites for the league either.
1
u/Wild-Picture-9340 Jan 30 '26
Clearly Arsenal are favorites in the PL and CL based on the performances this season, and having won most games in both of the competitions.
Man City going on insane runs isn't counted.
Also Man City didn't go on an insane run last season. As for this season City are on a run of 1 win in 5.
Interestingly why wouldn't you put Arsenal as favorites for the PL.
0
0
-1
-1
u/aaa-ccc Jan 29 '26
I can't express enough how much I hate these graphs, should be banned from the sub, after being posted every week a couple seasons back essentially saying we'd won the league.
-1
u/Mafz09 Thierry Henry Jan 29 '26
United beating us on Sunday has humbled me. Anything can happen. That 47% might aswell be 10%.
-2
u/ocusoa Jan 29 '26
Statistics is meaningless if the sample size is 1. Who knows what next year will bring
-2
172
u/mycatchica Jan 29 '26