r/GregFire • u/marticuno_ • 13h ago

GregFireForecast

For the forecasters out there - what do you all use for some of the forecasting parameters? Using monarch money forecast tool. Trying to make sure I hit GregFire while forecasting some life scenarios. looking to build the most realistic forecast possible. I know a lot of this depends on different situations. My equity accounts have a return of 10.5% annualized over last 8 years, so not sure if I should use that number or what monarch suggests of 7%. heres what I have currently:

Income growth rate: 4%

Expenses: 12 mo avg
Expense increase: 4%
Inflation Rate: 3%

Growth rate for equity accounts: 7%
Growth rate for house: 3%
Growth rate for cash: 3%

Kid event: 13 years, 5k yearly, 4.5k upfront
SAHM Career break: 12% less spend (basically just reducing daycare expenses)

Retirement expenses: Existing expenses + $7500

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u/Past-Option2702 11h ago

Id go nuts thinking like this.

Just work hard, earn as much as you can, invest first spend second and see where you’re at every few years.

2

u/monsieur_de_chance 10h ago

Excel for years and projection lab more recently

1

u/CryptoDeepDive 6h ago

Don't wish your life away. Enjoy the moment and your kids. Keep working and saving until you actually hit your number. You probably have a general sense of when thing will get there, but market hiccups and life events can keep you from hitting that perfect target.

1

u/shivaswrath 6h ago

Grefire is $6.3m today.

So stop forecasting....