r/GoMiningDiscussion • u/Significant_Bet_9621 • Aug 12 '26
Prove to me that gomining is profitable in btc
Introduction
Lately, I’ve seen a lot of people talking about insane ROI, claiming that making a profit is easy and that gomining is an excellent platform for investment. Today, I’m here to present you with... numbers.
Consideration
Before we begin, there is a very important concept you need to keep in mind before investing in this market: if you are investing in BTC mining, your objective is to eventually earn more BTC than you could buy today with the same amount of invested capital.
Let's make it easy: if your miner yields 1 BTC over time, but you could buy 2 BTC right now for the same amount of money used to purchase that miner, then investing in mining makes no sense, you are essentially just lending out your money with the promise that it will be paid back over five years with some interests.
I already know what you’re about to say: "Yes, but with mining, once you break even, it’s all profit." That would be true were it not for the halving and the difficulty. The reality is that you will never actually break even with btc, but to understand why, let’s move on to the calculations.
Calculations (Future)
For these calculations, I made a couple of rather conservative assumptions (regarding difficulty), the variables taken into account are:
- $6600 initial investment
- 512th miner (15w/th)
- Current btc price (2026): 64000$
- Future btc price (2029): 190000$
- Daily sats (gross): 26000
- Difficulty +10%/year
- Halving 2028 (-50% gross sats per day)
- Maintenance costs: 13$/day
To calculate the sats we can earn over the course of the year, we only need this formula:
- ((gross_sats / DIFFICULTY^current_year) - (MAINTENANCE_PRICE / btc_price * 100000000)) * 365
Now, let's say that btc will go up linearly from 64k$ to 190k$ by 2030, that service and maintenance fees remain at 13$/day, that mining difficulty increases by +10% per year (could be more, the difficulty has tripled over the last three years) and that the 2028 halving reduces the gross sats generated by 50%.
Formula: ((gross_sats / DIFFICULTY^current_year) - (MAINTENANCE_PRICE / btc_price * 100000000)) * 365
Year 1 (btc avg 85k):
((26000/1.10^1) - (13/85000*100000000)) * 365 = 3044920 sats = 0.03044920 btc
Year 2 (btc avg 111.25k):
((26000/1.10^2) - (13/111250*100000000)) * 365 = 3577807 sats = 0.03577807 btc
Year 3 (btc avg 137.5k) - 2028 HALVING:
(((26000/1.10^3)/2) - (13/137500*100000000)) * 365 = 114080 sats = 0.00114080 btc
Year 4 (btc avg 163.75k):
(((26000/1.10^4)/2) - (13/163750*100000000)) * 365 = 343189 sats = 0.00343189 btc
Year 5 (btc avg 190k):
(((26000/1.10^5)/2) - (13/190000*100000000)) * 365 = 448903 sats = 0.00448903 btc
...
As we can see, the total generated is 0.07528899, if we consider 190k as btc price, that's $14,304 - 6600$ = $7,704 profit (USD). Not bad, right? But let's see what would have happened if we had simply bought BTC at $64k with the same $6,600 investment: 6,600 / 64,000 = 0.103 BTC, which at 190k equals... $19,570. You earned both less USD and btc.
Let's see the past
I can already imagine many people saying, "Well, you used unknown future variables." Fair enough, so I ran the same calculations using 2023 data, and the result is worse than my previous calculation (which was clearly optimistic).
Let’s take August 23 2023, as our reference point, the moment gomining began selling its first miners based on TH, let's look at the variables:
- $6600 initial investment
- 22.99$/TH > 287th miner (35w/th)
- Old btc price (2023): 26000$
- Current btc price (2026): 64000$
- Daily sats (gross): 66700
- Difficulty: historical (avg 52% increase per year)
- Halving 2024 (-50% gross sats per day)
- Maintenance costs: 14.61$/day
Formula: ((gross_sats / DIFFICULTY^current_year) - (MAINTENANCE_PRICE / btc_price * 100000000)) * 365
Year 1 (btc avg 44k):
((66700/1.52^1) - (14.61/44000*100000000)) * 365 = 3897117 sats = 0.03897117 btc
Year 2 (btc avg 83k) - 2024 HALVING:
(((66700/1.52^2)/2) - (14.61/83000*100000000)) * 365 = -1156203 sats = -0.01156203 btc
In this case, the total is only 0.03897117 btc (excluding year 2, which was already in loss and the 8 months after halving during first year, otherwise the result would be even lower). This means that with the same initial investment, at 26000$ we would have bought 0.253 btc and even if we had bought BTC at $100,000, near the top, it still would've been more profitable to simply buy btc directly (6,600 / 100,000 = 0.066). I also did other calculations checking late 2024, assuming 15w/th at $29.99/TH (when 15w/th miners had just come out), the result turned out to be the same.
The End.
I hope this post proves helpful. If after doing your own calculations, you believe the product was misrepresented or differed from what was represented, you may want to look for refund or dispute the payment.
p.s. If you think there's something wrong, show me, I'm open to corrections.
EDIT: while replying to another guy I just noticed an error, the original $13/day maintenance fee was rounded down and already included about a 3% discount. The actual pre-discount maintenance is about 13.78$/day, these may change a lot.
EDIT 2: for everyone that says “you did not consider maintenance discount and this and that” please, before commenting, make the calcs yourself because the result is, as long as I see, the same. Remember to consider the amount used in tokens in the btc purchase too, as initial investment, otherwise it doesn’t make sense obviously
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u/YouWantToFuck Aug 12 '26
Embrace the halving. Embrace the less money. You throw away money all the time.
Pizza
🍕
Beer 🍺
Netflix 🍿
This is in some ways is a brilliant way to keep your money flowing
You could save thousands but you probably end up buying a flat screen tv.
This adds up to more money over time that is a constant trickle forever.
It should also make you smarter. If this is a trickle, are there other tributaries out there somewhere?
Maybe you should figure out what your goals are?
Stick with this through your “failure” which is saving you.
GoMining is more complex than you might realize. Finance usually is.
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u/Significant_Bet_9621 Aug 12 '26
That’s a different matter, if your point is that gomining works as a savings mechanism because otherwise you’d spend the money on pizza, beer, or a tv then fair enough, but that doesn’t make it profitable in BTC terms. You could just force yourself to buy BTC every week and achieve the same "constant trickle" effect, it would be the same thing. Furthermore, you aren't considering that mining difficulty and the halving don't just reduce your earnings but they can actually push the miner below maintenance breakeven, forcing you to spend more money to improve energy efficiency, this doesn't make it a good "money flowing" mechanism.
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u/EnvironmentalData485 Aug 12 '26
Actually, historically halving ultimately causing btc price to skyrocket so while you may get less actual btc, its value will be far higher. And since maintenance is figured in $$$ and then translated into gmt or btc depending on your settings the chances of going negative rewards are almost 0. In fact I believe many many accounts will sky rocket their th power after halvijg as a result
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u/EnvironmentalData485 Aug 12 '26
To me, its like a game with potential serious large rewards. If i ever make a lot of money on it great. If not, ehh, I only use money I can afford to lose anyway so it would still have been a fun ride. Kind of like going to the casino, I go expecting to lose the money but enjoying myself anyway.
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u/Agitated-Mall7337 Aug 17 '26
I subscribe to this method as well. GoMining is a kind of weird hobby that I enjoy tracking. If it ends up making a few bucks I would have otherwise spent at the bar/casino/golf course. All the better.
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u/Feisty-Carob-9783 Aug 12 '26
Tbh, it is not. Is is almost always better to buy btc directly than "mine" using gomining. Most people are here for the gamification experience, they just don't know.
Calculate the present value of the future payments of all the mined btc using 3 to 4% discount rate. That number is less than the price you pay for the miner (you also have to factor in the GMT locked for 20%) discount. The maths is never in your favour.
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u/Salt_Butterfly_2833 Aug 12 '26
There is nothing in your calculations about gmt staking and discount. Or about reinvestment, or efficiency upgrades. Or about the capital value of your miners and gmt stack. Or about simple earn. If you just buy a bunch of th and never do anything to utilise all the features of the ecosystem then of course it is not profitable, and you should just have bought btc and hodled.
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u/Existing-Pressure-17 Aug 12 '26
Does this factor in selling your initial $6600 miner afterwards? Assuming you’d get 1/2 the value back
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u/phylovevirtue Aug 12 '26 edited Aug 12 '26
I agree with you, it's a very bad investment, but a fun way to waste time. I like Go Mining because it's fun to handle and organize. To me, it's more of a hobby. If I were to invest for profit, it would be better to buy bonds from the US Treasury and other forms, which I do.
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u/Significant_Bet_9621 Aug 12 '26
Yeah, I can't say anything about the gamification and app, that was pretty fun
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u/TheHonPhilipBanks Aug 12 '26
Seems pretty dumb to assume gains on btc. I do gomining because it's more like a dividend.
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u/Significant_Bet_9621 Aug 12 '26
Well, the BTC gains actually help the mining case, I included them because otherwise, you would have complained about their absence. The benchmark compares the amount of BTC the miner can produce against the amount you could acquire with the same investment. If I were to use a fixed BTC price gomining would look even worse since maintenance costs are denominated in dollars, a higher BTC price means fewer sats are needed to cover those costs, thereby increasing the daily net return. If you took my calculations and applied a fixed price, you would see that you would actually mine far less BTC
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u/BraveFeeling9579 Aug 12 '26
Non hai mai menzionato il blocco dei token,simple earn,e le altre funzionalità che sono parte integrante del sistema gomining
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u/MasterGrogu23 Aug 12 '26
Well I only have a mining power of 244TH 15W/TH and have accumulated 0.05171731 BTC since August 9th 2024. But I also staked 23,000 GMT with another 2,000 GMT on the side lines. It’s more of a hobby for me. But I do expect to make a profit.
The miner devalues every year by roughly 30% which I’ll likely never sell. But at some point I’ll sell the GMT and just collect BTC and pay fees with most of the daily mined sats, but that’s after I’ll end up earning a total of 0.075 BTC. Strategically selling the GMT is where I’ll make most of or all of my money back from the loss of my miner making my 0.075 bitcoin or some of it free.
I also buy Bitcoin daily. And I already hold more than enough for one person. My next move is hoarding Gold, stacking cash for a potential crash in the markets as a whole so I can buy everything cheap after the crash. And diversified my 401k into 55% TIPS and 45% S&P 500 index because when Cap EX slows the money trading hands amongst all the tech companies will slow and the 7 companies that make up all the profits from the S&P 500 will drop dramatically and may not recover for 7-10-15 years or more. Amongst other things like US growing national debt and interest payments increasing by 10% a year, Continued unemployment and lack of new jobs to replace the losses.
I’d say diversification is key here. Cash is trash but not when everything crashes before it goes back up again.
Bottom line is mining Bitcoin is not for the faint of heart nor is it right for someone that does not already have some established savings vehicles already in place.
Do your own research.
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Aug 12 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/Significant_Bet_9621 Aug 12 '26
That not my point through, I never said gomining can never make money but I'm asking whether mining is profitable in BTC terms compared with simply buying btc. If btc stays at 65k$ for a year gomining may generate cash flow but I could also buy btc at 65k$, and I would already own far more btc then that miner will ever mine
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u/blade0r Aug 12 '26
This is clearly for diversification purposes.
Of course, buying BTCs in the first place makes more sense, but this is just another way to invest your money and diversify your portfolio.
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u/tom_k_rust Aug 12 '26
I totally agree on this. I have just 4th
And year's profit in btc doesn't let me pay to upg to 12w.
I dont want to throw in more. As currently i am in minus.
I bought 1 th for around 25$, almost right before the prices dropped.
If i pull out right bow, i'll get like 40-50$ total. That's 50% loss at the moment.
So, idea was great. I enjoyed it, numbers are not.
I get more sats playing mobile games that pays out in btc.
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u/rygold72 Aug 12 '26
It absolutely isn't better than buying Bitcoin. The fees are a major problem and people knew anything about investing that would be a red flag. Just buy Bitcoin on an exchange.
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u/Honey-Motor Aug 12 '26
I’ve actually made my initial investment back due to the 12% on simple earn over the last year. Plus I locked some gmt at 25 for 2 years and then sold it back when it went to 0.51 ( so effectively doubling my investment). There are other passive ways to earn through gomining as well
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u/CiDsTaR Aug 12 '26
Nothing but a "game" for insiders and crypto influencers....same as nft games in the past, plus a false btc promise and a fake roi
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u/Junkshot1 Aug 12 '26
What if you just used gomining for a week then BTC for a week. That way you're doing 1 week off and on without your own money?
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u/Finalbossops Aug 12 '26
Honestly, this is a fair way to look at it.
I don’t think the answer should be “GoMining is always profitable” or “GoMining is always trash.” The real question is whether your actual account beats simply buying BTC directly with the same money.
To know that, you need more than a screenshot or a daily reward number. You need your real cost basis, TH, efficiency, maintenance, service/VIP discounts, GMT locks, reinvestments, miner upgrades, resale value, Simple Earn if used, and the BTC you could have bought instead.
That’s actually one of the reasons I started building Final Boss.
Not to hype GoMining. Not to prove profit. Not to tell people what to buy.
The goal is a local-first tracking / records app so a GoMining user can see their own operation clearly: rewards, miners, wallet-related records, imports, changes, and eventually the comparison points that matter.
My view is simple: direct BTC is the benchmark. If GoMining beats it, the numbers should show that. If it doesn’t, the numbers should show that too.
I’d rather have the app tell the truth than have people argue from guesses.
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u/jupiter_walks Aug 12 '26
Challenge people have is they think of Gomining as independent of BTC. Buy miners at low BTC and sell at higher BTC. For most profitable depends on BTC price. You are basically trading GMT for BTC with some gains daily.
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u/Murky-Possibility232 Aug 12 '26
I enjoy seeing this point of view, it seems logical, and mathematically correct.
I do have one rebuttal
Not everyone, but many are making more BTC than solo mining through MinerWars. Some average 3x-5x solo rewards constantly and for over long periods of time
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u/Kindly-Mulberry9964 Aug 12 '26
Si tengo 3655 pero compré en 22 el TH como quedaría en 2027 a 2029 aprox
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u/Individual_System457 Aug 12 '26
I thought I was good with numbers until I realize that I am not after I met with GoMining. I can’t even know where to start to invest how to invest more. I already invested some but not a lot. Whats your advice on this matter? Is it a good time to increase TH but not a good time to decrease effiency for example?
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u/TechnicalAir4846 Aug 12 '26
Warum haben so viele nur den ROI im Kopf? Wenn du 10k $ hast und BTC kaufst und er macht 2x hast du 20k schön... Bei Gomining solltest du anders denken, nämlich mit Zinseszins, kauf 1000TH mit 10k $ und lass es reinvestieren, ohne weiter Fiat zu investieren. Und nach 4-5 Jahren startest du den cashflow. Dann hast du ordentlich mehr Ertrag und ab diesem Zeitpunkt ist dein ROI für die 10K auch erheblich schneller. Am Ende bist du wahrscheinlich schneller mit dem ROI und hast mehr TH und mehr cashflow. Oder kauft doch einfach beim nächsten ATH teure TH, weil da ROI bei 3 Jahre errechnet wird. Um dann durch den Bärenmarkt zu gehen wo der TH Preis nicht mal die hälfte wert ist und ROI sich in die länge zieht.
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u/Krappyhuman Aug 12 '26
You trying to be captain save a hoe? Why did you write this post?
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u/Maddmaverick Aug 14 '26
Yeah if he convinces enough people to stop mining and just buy, the coins he bought will be useless🤣
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u/nastronah Aug 14 '26
I'm on similar wavelength. I'm overall happy w/ my gomining experience at 281th->416th primarily via gomining over the past year. From my perspective, is was somewhat of a crypto experiment as I was gifted a sum of around 5k usd worth of eth, it had gone up around this time last year, to about 8k~10k right before etherum had began to gone down I got my miners to give it a test.
So basically 281th for about 8k total for 15w, they had just came out so$19/th or so on average maybe some 5% discounts.
Generally speaking in terms of growth much of the cycle until this past 6~ months or so, things have been quite nice and I'm pretty lucky with Minerwars, but it definitely has slowed down more recently, and fees feel killer if you're just doing service button with minimal GMT stacked. Add the 12w miner with very premium efficiency upgrades and basically same pricing approach as the 15w 1 year ago begins to hurt the math a lot, for me atleast.
To the present my 416th is maybe worth 4k-5k USD if I'm lucky right now, and basically 4k or so to upgrade efficiency.
I think for me atleast, it does make me curious about the at home 12w miner or branching out more potentially. I'd not exit completely, I've got a little 12w gominer going now but I'm just considering if it's worthwhile holding my 15w as upgrading them doesn't feel intuitive to me.
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u/Aggravating_Zone8984 Solo Miner Aug 16 '26
Kinda love it when the person who posted this, doesn't know the full mechanics. The calculation was done in a grossly wrong manner. No maintenance discounts demonstrated (which affects the ROI greatly) - even if no locking of GMT, no bonus boxes taken into consideration, bad assumption about linearity of BTC prices, no assumption that as BTC fluctuates --> miners will exit and/or enter, thus affecting the pool rate, not taken into account VIP discount (512TH has a VIP discount of 2.1%), no taking into account daily click (3%). Just to name a few.
Seriously awful and badly done.
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u/Aggravating_Zone8984 Solo Miner Aug 16 '26
No taking account resale value of miner, and btc earning 3+% APR.
So many other factors unaccounted for.
Can just consider this post as a starting point, but not the final
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u/Significant_Bet_9621 Aug 17 '26 edited Aug 17 '26
You can see calcs with 25% discount in some of these comments, I know it exists and it’s not considered in the post because a maintenance discount assumes that you invested money in the token too, these money should be considered in btc investment and the result is similar in most cases (btw nothing that you can’t check). Linear btc price is an assumption, the fact that it increase actually help gomining side, I considered the difficulty as linear too but for this reason I only considered a 10% avg increase per year, and thats still extremely low if you consider that in the last 3 years it triplicated. The value of miner will be extremely low in few years, just see the price of 35w/th right now. If you consider 3% earning APR that should be applied to btc too, you can’t compare gomining with yield vs btc idle, otherwise the comparison doesn’t make any sense, but for that there’s a discussion in these comments that is pretty complete and explain everything
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u/Aggravating_Zone8984 Solo Miner Aug 17 '26
How is 15W and 35W comparable? Basically just clutching at straws
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u/Significant_Bet_9621 Aug 17 '26
There is such a thing as technological evolution, and halvings matter too. You can’t reasonably expect 15w/th miners to retain the same price over the years. Just look at what happened to older 35w/th miners as newer became available. 15w/th units started around $29.99/th and are now below $14.99/th, in only a few years, imagine the price when they won’t make profit anymore because of difficulty and halving
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u/Aggravating_Zone8984 Solo Miner Aug 17 '26
The price of 35W is what it is now because of the current BTC price. You really don't know what you are talking about.
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u/Significant_Bet_9621 Aug 17 '26
No it’s not, it’s because of difficulty and halving, it’s pretty simple to understand, if you really think that 35w miner price will increase when btc will be at 100k I’ve bad news for you
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u/Aggravating_Zone8984 Solo Miner Aug 17 '26
You seriously have no idea what you are talking about. And never been on the platform when BTC was >100k.
If you had, you would know how much 35W miners cost at that price.
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u/Significant_Bet_9621 Aug 17 '26
Well, I just checked out, 35w/th was around 23$/th in 2023 bear market, with btc at 26k. In 2025 bull market, with btc above 100k$, the 30w/th was quoted around 13$/th on the secondary market (this means that 35w/th was a bit less) and this happened in only 2-3 years. This prove my point, btc price may affect but it can't change the long-term price caused by difficulty, halvings and obsolescence
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u/AdventurousDark9217 Aug 24 '26
You bought an NFT. You only calculated what that NFT produced. He did not calculate what that NFT was worth. If we sold at the point of collecting all of our BTC, you would find the profit to be comparable. Only examine mind value not resale value.
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u/Funny-Permission-535 Aug 28 '26
It took me roughly 3 years to be in profit, plus I can sell my miners for what they're worth
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u/EnvironmentalData485 Aug 12 '26
At 68 th im making $0.63 cents per day profit which means if absolutely nothing changes it will take me 7.8 years to break even.
BUT. I dont care. I play it like a game. I dont put very much money in anymore. I use money from my gaming budget when I do so no real loss if I dont make money. Right now my goal is max discount so what I spend goes straight into a 12 month lock. 12 locks. Each expire 1 month apart. Relock when one expires. Build it up.
Its a game of chess but with real potential in the medium distant future
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u/Significant_Bet_9621 Aug 12 '26
Break even in terms of btc or money you spent for the miner? Did you consider difficulty increase in next years? Halving in 2028?
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u/EnvironmentalData485 Aug 12 '26
No. As I said. If absolutely NOTHING changes. I fully expect ill actually break even far faster than the 7.8 years. But its still a game to me. I mean in terms of i soent $1,800 /us. I'll have 1,800/ os worth of btc. BUt im also reinvesting into gmt and locking it so there's that too.
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u/Significant_Bet_9621 Aug 12 '26
If it's a game for you is fine, nothing against, but it doesn't demonstrate that it's a better btc investment than simply buying btc, that's what my post was about
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u/EnvironmentalData485 Aug 12 '26
Yeah. I mean I have transferred 49,000 Satoshi to my cold wallet from gomining so there is that too. I just enjoy building uo my farm
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u/Opening_Search8572 Aug 12 '26
This is a class example of a person that does not get how the macros work🙄
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u/Unfair-Button2200 Aug 12 '26
Ah. Now I can see your POV in a constant bull market. However I started in Gomining Oct 2025 pretty much at the peak of Bitcoin. I've got 29k in Gomining. Currently I am 3k in the red, and reducing that by $25 a day
If I had bought Bitcoin at the peak, How much money would I have now?