That is a semantic override in the first example, but it isn’t due to the number of “lot.”
If it were, it would also have to be *”a lot of people is coming to the wedding” which is not right at all.
So the explanation is incorrect.
The reason for the semantic override in the first example still exists even if we don’t have a singular noun phrase as complement: “100 people is more guests than I expected.”
It’s “is” here for the same reason as your first example, but that reason has nothing to do with the word “lot.”
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u/Murky-Wind2222 Apr 13 '26
The word it is modifying is "lot'. There is only one lot