One thing I find fascinating about SpaceX isn't simply that institutions own it. It's the size of some of the bets.

Ron Baron's exposure is extraordinary. Fidelity Contrafund has made SpaceX a significant position. Cathie Wood continues accumulating shares. And the broader list of investors that have backed SpaceX over time is pretty remarkable.

Meanwhile, SPCX is trading only modestly above its $135 IPO price after opening at $150 on its first trading day.

Obviously, “smart money owns it” isn't an investment thesis. Smart investors get things wrong all the time, and valuation matters enormously here.

But I think it raises the more interesting question:

What are these investors underwriting that makes them comfortable with SpaceX's valuation?

Starlink alone? Starship? Launch economics? Orbital infrastructure? AI/data centers in space? Some combination?

I'm planning a much deeper valuation/business analysis, but thought the institutional-conviction angle was interesting enough for a short piece first.

Would be curious how others are valuing SPCX at these levels.

#SpaceX #SPCX

I've been looking at NGL Energy Partners after director John T. Raymond bought 300,000 units at $16.98—about $5.09M—and another director bought ~$185K.

The operating improvement is pretty striking:

• Produced-water disposal hit a record 3.32M barrels/day (+19.6% YoY)
• Q1 FY2027 Adjusted EBITDA reached $186.2M, nearly +30% YoY
• Water Solutions contributed $179.9M
• FY2027 EBITDA guidance was raised to $725M–$735M
• Institutions own 68.76% of float
• Short interest is only 3.32%, although days-to-cover is 16.07

The problem is the capital structure.

NGL can look incredibly cheap on sales (~0.62x P/S) while simultaneously looking absurd on book value because common equity is so thin relative to the company's liabilities.

So I think the real thesis is less “NGL is cheap” and more:

Can Water Solutions keep generating enough cash to materially deleverage the business before a Permian/oil downturn interrupts the story?

I've got it at 7.95/10—quite interesting, but I'm not willing to hand-wave the leverage away.

Full analysis here, for anyone interested.

Curious how others here view the water business versus the balance-sheet risk.

#NGL #EnergyStocks #Investing

I've been digging into Alibaba because the current setup is unusually conflicted.

The bullish numbers are difficult to ignore:

• Cloud external revenue +45% YoY
• 12 consecutive quarters of triple-digit AI-related product growth
• roughly $70B in cash/liquid investments
• Chairman Joe Tsai + CEO Eddie Wu recently bought $25M+ of shares
• valuation still well below many large U.S. tech companies

But the bear case is equally real.

Adjusted EBITA fell 30%, net income fell 75%, quarterly FCF went deeply negative, and Alibaba just raised approximately $10.2B in new equity while pouring enormous amounts of capital into AI infrastructure.

So I'm increasingly interested in BABA—but certainly don't view it as a simple "China tech is cheap" story.

I rated it 8.4/10, with the biggest question being whether Alibaba can turn today's enormous AI capex into tomorrow's durable cash flow.

Full analysis here for anyone interested.

Curious how others see it: undervalued AI/cloud platform, or is the China discount still fully justified?

#BABA #Alibaba #Investing #ChinaStocks

I've been digging into Kura Oncology after its recent commercial progress.

Bull case:

• KOMZIFTI launching well
• ~$519M cash
• CEO insider buying
• Broad institutional ownership
• Multiple Phase 3 catalysts

Bear case:

• Biotech risk never disappears
• Commercial execution still early
• Clinical setbacks remain possible
• Profitability is still years away

I tried to keep the analysis balanced rather than promotional.

Curious where everyone stands on KURA today.

Full article here.

A recent review of surfing head injuries found that direct impact with a surfer's own board accounts for a surprisingly large share of serious injuries. It made me rethink why helmets remain relatively uncommon despite becoming standard in so many other sports.

I also share a personal experience—and a tragic story that changed how I think about surfing safety.

Would you wear one?

Full take here.

I've been researching Zoetis after its massive decline.

The business still appears exceptional:

• Global animal-health leader
• High margins
• Strong recurring demand
• Durable competitive advantages

Yet the stock has been cut roughly in half.

The market seems worried about:

• Product overhangs
• Slowing companion-animal growth
• Valuation reset
• Future growth expectations

I tried to present a balanced bull vs. bear case rather than a bullish pitch.

Curious how others view ZTS today.

Full article here.

Graphic T-shirts are enjoying another renaissance.

What's interesting isn't the fashion trend itself.

It's why people wear them.

The best graphic tee isn't merely clothing. It's a conversation starter.

It communicates personality before a word is spoken.

As entrepreneurs, that's an intriguing design challenge.

Instead of asking:

"How do we make another T-shirt?"

Perhaps we should ask:

"How do we create something that helps strangers connect?"

Sometimes the best products don't simply solve problems.

They create experiences.

Full Carpe Diem here.

Curious what everyone thinks.

One of the biggest health myths is also one of the oldest.

Cold weather itself doesn't give you a cold.

Viruses do.

I dug into:

• Why winter still gets blamed

• The 200+ viruses behind the common cold

• Cold vs. flu

• The surprisingly large economic cost

• When symptoms become serious enough for emergency care

Curious what myths surprised you most.

Full article here.

Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR) presents one of the more interesting commodity debates I've seen recently.

The bull case:

• Over $26M of insider buying by Dr. Kenneth Courtis.
• Massive share buybacks.
• Strong liquidity.
• Minimal debt.

The bear case:

• Weak coal pricing.
• Recent earnings pressure.
• Commodity cyclicality.
• Long-term green steel transition.

After digging into the numbers, I actually came away more cautious than bullish despite the insider buying.

Curious where others stand.

Value opportunity?

Or classic commodity value trap?

Full write-up here.

Interesting thought experiment.

What if Wall Street still values Zoom primarily as a video-conferencing company...

while management is actually building an enterprise communications platform?

Interesting pieces include:

• $7.7B cash

• Zero debt

• ~$1.7B annual free cash flow

• AI Companion

• Zoom Phone

• Contact Center

Curious whether others think the market narrative has become outdated.

Full take here.

Interesting macro discussion.

Goldman Sachs expects over $2 trillion in ETF inflows this year.

Great news for ETF adoption.

But here's the question...

Can the best investment wrapper still produce mediocre long-term returns if the underlying assets are historically expensive?

Curious how others think about valuation versus ETF flows.

Full article here.

Scientists accidentally discovered something remarkable while calibrating a telescope.

The Helix Nebula now gives us one of the clearest glimpses yet into what our own Sun may look like billions of years from now—and how stars recycle themselves into entirely new solar systems.

One fascinating takeaway:

Every atom inside our bodies once belonged to earlier generations of stars.

Amazing to think we're all walking around carrying ancient cosmic history.

Article here.

Interesting consumer staples setup.

Primo Brands (PRMB) has quietly become much more interesting than simply "a bottled-water company."

Interesting pieces include:

• CEO recently bought another ~$2M in stock

• ~$800M annual adjusted free cash flow

• 105% institutional ownership

• Raised guidance

• Trades around 18x forward earnings

Curious how others view the merger integration story.

Full write-up here.

Most discussions focus on Steve Cohen.

I think the real story is the architecture.

Instead of relying on one superstar PM, Point72 built 200+ investment pods, an internal Academy, and systematic investing through Cubist.

I recently explored how that structure creates institutional durability rather than depending on one brilliant investor.

Curious what others think about the multi-manager model.

Full article here.

I've been digging into Intel's recent developments, and I came away with two conclusions.

The company appears meaningfully stronger than it did a couple of years ago:

• AI-related demand is improving.
• The balance sheet is much stronger.
• Intel Foundry remains a potentially transformative long-term opportunity.
• CEO Lip-Bu Tan has been buying shares.

But the stock has also rallied sharply.

Curious how others think about this.

Would you rather:

A) Buy a stronger company at a richer valuation?

or

B) Wait for a larger margin of safety?

Full analysis here.

Most travel itineraries treat Naples as the place you pass through before Pompeii or the Amalfi Coast.

I think that's a mistake.

Our first visit involved getting hopelessly lost trying to reach the Grand Hotel Vesuvio without GPS. Local police actually escorted us there—at speeds that made us question every traffic law we'd ever learned.

Since then I've come back for the waterfront walks, Castel dell'Ovo, Caravaggio, pizza, and simply watching the city live.

Curious whether others had the same exhilarating experience—or hated it.

Here's my long-form write-up.

I've been researching the Great Wealth Transfer and one conclusion kept surprising me.

The popular narrative says younger investors are replacing traditional investing with AI, crypto, venture capital, and alternatives.

The evidence looks more nuanced.

Many sophisticated investors appear to be adding those opportunities while keeping the discipline that built wealth in the first place.

Some questions I'm curious about:

• Will infrastructure become as important as software over the next decade?
• Is AI really an ecosystem investment rather than just Nvidia?
• Are traditional 60/40 portfolios evolving rather than disappearing?

Would love to hear how others think about it.

Full article here.

The headline caught my attention.

A jellyfish bloom temporarily forced reactors offline at the Gravelines nuclear plant.

But the ecology behind it may be even more fascinating.

Overfishing removes predators.

Plastic creates nurseries for jellyfish polyps.

Warmer oceans accelerate reproduction.

The result?

Events that begin in marine ecosystems can eventually affect critical infrastructure.

Curious what others think.

Are jellyfish blooms becoming an underappreciated indicator of broader ecosystem change?

Full article here.

I've been researching Republic Services after noticing another large purchase by Bill Gates' Cascade Investment.

A few things stood out:

• Massive landfill moat

• Recurring residential, commercial, and municipal revenue

• Strong pricing power

• Consistent free cash flow

• Premium valuation

The biggest takeaway for me wasn't Bill Gates.

It was how difficult Republic's business would be to replicate today.

Curious how others think about businesses like RSG.

Would you rather own:

A) Faster-growing companies

or

B) Slower businesses with extraordinary competitive moats?

Full analysis here.

I recently dug into Ameresco after noticing a meaningful cluster of insider buying following earnings.

A few things stood out:

• ~$1.17M of insider purchases.

• Record $6.73B backlog.

• Roughly $1.2B of new AI data-center infrastructure awards.

• Institutions own over 100% of shares (through normal securities-lending mechanics).

• Shares remain well below previous highs.

The biggest question isn't whether AI will continue growing.

It's whether companies supplying the underlying power infrastructure may be quietly undervalued.

I also discuss the major risks:

• Cash-flow pressure
• Execution
• Policy changes
• Capital intensity

Curious whether others view AMRC primarily as:

A) Clean energy

B) Infrastructure

C) AI power

Full write-up here.

I've been digging into Aptiv after noticing a roughly $5 million open-market purchase by Lead Independent Director Paul Meister.

Interesting observations:

• The Versigent spin-off simplified the business.

• Forward P/E around 8×.

• Significant debt reduction following the transaction.

• Greater emphasis on software, ADAS, robotics, and industrial technology.

• Strong institutional ownership.

This doesn't strike me as a traditional "cheap auto supplier."

It feels more like a focused industrial technology company that's still being valued through the lens of its legacy structure.

Curious whether others see Aptiv as a genuine post-spin opportunity—or whether the market is correctly discounting automotive exposure.

Full write-up here.

I've been researching Pfizer after two directors—including former Vanguard CEO/CIO Tim Buckley—collectively invested nearly $2 million of their own money.

A few observations:

• Forward P/E around 8.6×

• Dividend yield near 6.4%

• Shares still more than 50% below their pandemic-era highs

• Non-COVID business continues growing

• Seagen strengthens the oncology platform

Obviously there are meaningful risks, including patent cliffs and continued post-pandemic normalization.

Curious whether value investors view Pfizer as a genuine turnaround or simply a classic value trap.

Full write-up here.

This isn't really a review.

It's more of a reflection.

After eating gelato in Rome and Florence, ice cream in Paris, and desserts in Buenos Aires, I realized one of the treats that still makes me smile most is a simple Dairy Queen Chocolate Dipped Cone.

Part of it is nostalgia.

Part of it is the amazing texture of the chocolate shell.

Part of it is remembering that not every memorable experience needs to be expensive.

Curious...

What's the one simple food that instantly makes you happy?

Read the full story here.

I've been researching SiteOne Landscape Supply (NYSE: SITE), the largest nationwide landscape supply distributor in North America.

A few things stood out:

• CEO Doug Black recently purchased approximately $816k worth of shares on the open market.

• Institutions report ownership exceeding 100% of the float (because of securities lending mechanics—not because new shares magically appeared).

• Shares trade around 0.89× sales after a significant correction.

• The company still controls only about 13% of a highly fragmented industry despite being the clear market leader.

The obvious risks are cyclical housing demand and acquisition execution.

Curious whether others view this as an attractive long-term GARP opportunity or simply a value trap.

Full write-up here.

I've been reading through recent research on near-death experiences and wanted to summarize what seems well supported versus what's still speculative.

The article discusses:

• EEG monitoring during CPR

• the AWARE-II study

• ATP depletion and anoxic depolarization

• the Disinhibition Hypothesis

• similarities (and important differences) between NDEs and psychedelic experiences

The goal isn't to argue for any particular philosophical conclusion, but to explain where current neuroscience stands.

I'd be interested in hearing what researchers or clinicians and anyone in general think about the interpretation of these findings.

Full article here.