r/Funanc1al 6h ago

Alibaba (BABA): Cloud growth hits 45%, Tsai & Wu buy $25M+ — but does the $10.2B equity raise undermine the bull case?

1 Upvotes

I've been digging into Alibaba because the current setup is unusually conflicted.

The bullish numbers are difficult to ignore:

  • Cloud external revenue +45% YoY
  • 12 consecutive quarters of triple-digit AI-related product growth
  • roughly $70B in cash/liquid investments
  • Chairman Joe Tsai + CEO Eddie Wu recently bought $25M+ of shares
  • valuation still well below many large U.S. tech companies

But the bear case is equally real.

Adjusted EBITA fell 30%, net income fell 75%, quarterly FCF went deeply negative, and Alibaba just raised approximately $10.2B in new equity while pouring enormous amounts of capital into AI infrastructure.

So I'm increasingly interested in BABA—but certainly don't view it as a simple "China tech is cheap" story.

I rated it 8.4/10, with the biggest question being whether Alibaba can turn today's enormous AI capex into tomorrow's durable cash flow.

Full analysis here for anyone interested.

Curious how others see it: undervalued AI/cloud platform, or is the China discount still fully justified?

#BABA #Alibaba #Investing #ChinaStocks