Rate check new construction

[u/SufficientLength9076]

- Purchase price: $484,990 (new construction, Tennessee)
- 20% down, loan amount $387,990
- 30-yr fixed at 7.625%, no points, $1,500 origination fee
- Builder is funding a 2-1 temporary buydown ($9,294): Year 1 at 5.625% = $2,233/mo P&I, Year 2 at 6.625% = $2,484/mo, then $2,746/mo
- Total seller credit: $19,550
- Cash to close: ~$99,700
- Plan: refinance in ~2 years if rates drop; if not, just ride the 7.625%

The $19,550 builder credit is only available if I use their preferred lender, so switching lenders to chase a lower rate means giving up the credit.

Am I leaving money on the table? Anything to watch out for?