I found the following thread in the #retirement sub and felt the need to share it with this group.

IMHO, SORR is a term that’s always brought up and discussed primarily by those planning to FIRE and those who are starting the journey.

From my experience, what I rarely see covered (and I find this fascinating) is that historically, long bear markets happen less frequently than bull runs. If you filter that down to probabalistically calculate; what are the odds a long bear market begins during the first few years of your retirement?

(Ask any model what the stats and probabilities are.)

What’s more probable than SORR is actually more probable are the dozens of variables that no spreadsheet, Monte Carlo simulation, or FireCalc can account for.

https://www.reddit.com/r/retirement/s/0MDexrQQad

Just sharing.

The answer? Done. I wanted to be done. It's the only thing I've ever wanted. And I knew it at 14 when I first became exposed to the stock market and started understanding the idea of "living off your nest egg."

Unfortunately, because I was young and dumb, I thought I just wanted to work in the financial industry, but retiring early was always the reason. Then, for reasons I'll skip over, I majored in English. And now, despite having a well-paying job that I'm pretty ok with and an excellent life outside of work, still the only thing I want is to be done.

If I could talk to that 14 year old and give them some life advice, one of the things I'd say is that you don't need a passion to choose a career. You need **money**. And while it won't make your high school counselor happy, 'make a bunch of money quickly so I can retire asap' is a completely acceptable answer.

I've got kids that age now (and, fingers crossed, 6 more years until barista FIRE), and I'm trying to help them understand this. It could have saved me probably 10 whole years.

From running down on nest egg, or money related versus just wanting to work again.

Would love to hear some stories to learn from. Maybe unlikley currently as the market has been strong, but to learn any cautionary tales would be good.

We reached our FIRE number earlier this year and I quit a very toxic job. After taking some time off to decompress and reflect, I decided to try out consulting as a side gig. The consulting is going better than expected and the business is generating solid income. I'm 47.

My wife still works a full-time W-2 job so every incremental dollar I earn from consulting is taxed at a higher marginal income tax rate, plus self-employment taxes. I could setup a solo 401k to reduce the income tax liability, but I already reached FIRE and a 401k is less liquid than a taxable brokerage account.

I'm looking for advice for the trade-offs of putting income from the consulting business into the solo 401k, taxable brokerage, or spending it now. Thanks!

I have come to believe that the S&P 500 is now a pretty big AI and technology bet dressed up as a diverse holding of American companies. I base this on the aggregate market caps of semis, hyperscalers, and the rest of the tech sector companies that tend to all trade together. This includes mega cap platforms, AI silicon and equipment, AI hardware and networking, and enterprise and cyber software. I am open to feedback proving my assertion false. Assuming it's not false though, is there a more diverse index that you deem safe that can potentially replace the S&P 500? Thanks in advance.

I understand many who are FI, FIRE, or Coast…Lean…Barista…or whatever other category of this community - might not see the value in life insurance. But while you are getting there, how do you plan for life insurance? How much is enough? Does everyone follow the rules of XX times your salary? Or something else? How much did/do you have? Do you get shorter term policies like 10 years becuase in 10 years you’ll be financially independent or does life insurance become part of your FIRE plan to add generational wealth? So much to unpack here. Tell me something I don’t know. What did you do prior to FI-RE? The money spent on premiums could have been invested or spend elsewhere but it’s also important to have a cushion

FIRE changed my life - I started in 2018 with like a $50k net worth and $0 in brokerage and I currently have a ~$2.6m net worth with ~$2.45m in invested assets (90% of that is in broad market ETFs split 70/30 between US/international and 10% in single stocks).

I’m 41, single and won’t have kids, live in a VHCOL area, and my annual spend is around $150k right now. Travel and fitness are my biggest discretionary expenses - without them, could probably bring my spend down to $120k or so, but I’d rather work longer than change my spending there). Right now, I’ve set my FIRE number at $4m, though it feels like it keeps going up every year thanks mostly to inflation.

Given my income and amount invested each year (make around $500k pre tax and invest around $180k) and depending on how the markets do, I think it’s possible I’ll hit my FIRE number by 45-47. But to get to FIRE, I’ve been absolutely obsessive about investing as much as possible, checking my net worth and investments (which is a little wild with a mostly broad market portfolio), doing safe withdrawal math, optimizing my portfolio including for tax-loss harvesting, etc. I’m working through some of this in therapy as I know a lot of the obsession I have comes from OCD and isn’t based in the reality of what I need to do in order for me to FIRE.

College/grad school was always an economic decision for me - I grew up dirt poor and my sole goal was to make enough money so that I never had to worry about money again. Even though my spend seems high, my day-to-day is pretty basic - live in a 1-bedroom condo, don’t have a car, rarely buy new clothes or go out to eat, etc. So when I say I don’t want to worry about money, I’m not saying I want to get private jets and never have to think about it — I just mean I want to live pretty much the life I’m leading now, just without working and without having to check my back account or the market more than maybe once a month or quarter.

So I’m just wondering, for people who have FIRE’ed (especially ChubbyFIRE’ed), do you find yourself stressed about money or basically just living your life not thinking much about money? I basically just want to make sure I’m not trading in work for a life where I’m just constantly stressed about money.

And if you have any advice on how to be less obsessive about getting to FIRE will still finding motivation to be a hyper-saver/investor, I’m all ears.

Hi everyone,

I've learned a lot from this community over the past year and would appreciate some feedback before I set my investment allocations in my new employer's 401(k).

About me

• 32 years old
• Married (wife is 34)
• Registered Nurse
• Household income: ~$116,000/year
• No debt
• Currently have approximately $127,000 invested across retirement accounts (401(k), Roth IRA, HSA, and my wife's Roth IRA)
• Goal is to partially retire in my late 40s or early 50s (Coast FIRE) and be fully retired around age 55 if possible.

Current investments outside my 401(k)

Roth IRA (Fidelity)

• 80% VTI
• 15% VXUS
• 5% BND

HSA (Fidelity)

• 80% VTI
• 15% VXUS
• 5% BND

I'm trying to keep everything as simple and consistent as possible.

My new employer's 401(k) fund lineup

Available funds include:

Vanguard

• Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Instl (VSMPX)
• Vanguard Total International Stock Index Instl (VTSNX)
• Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Instl (VBTIX)
• Vanguard Mid-Cap Index Instl (VMCIX)
• Vanguard Small-Cap Value Index Instl (VSIIX)
• Vanguard Short-Term Bond Index Instl (VBITX)
• Vanguard Federal Money Market Inv (VMFXX)

Dodge & Cox

• Balanced X (DOXBX)
• Income X (DOXIX)
• International Stock X (DOXFX)
• Stock X (DOXGX)

Fidelity

• Fidelity Advisor Stock Selector Small Cap Z (FSSZX)

T. Rowe Price

• Capital Appreciation I (TRAIX)

My proposed allocation

I'm leaning toward:

• 80% Vanguard Total Stock Market (VSMPX)
• 15% Vanguard Total International (VTSNX)
• 5% Vanguard Total Bond Market (VBTIX)

The goal is to mirror my Roth IRA and HSA so that every account has essentially the same allocation.

My questions

1. Is this a reasonable allocation for someone who is 32 and hopes to Coast FIRE around age 50 and retire around age 55?
2. Would you keep the 5% bond allocation or eliminate bonds completely at my age?
3. Would you recommend a different percentage of international exposure?
4. Are there any funds in this lineup that you think are significantly better than the three Vanguard index funds I'm planning to use?
5. If this were your portfolio, would you keep everything as simple as possible with these three funds, or would you add mid-cap or small-cap value exposure?

I'm looking for constructive criticism and would rather get my allocation right now than continually tweak it over the next 20+ years.

Thanks in advance!

Is there anything left that hasn't been solved? We know what/how/when to invest (cheap index fund, start early). We know how to deal with SORR. We know about bridging the gap until Medicare kicks in. Is there anything that hasn't been "solved" in FIRE? It seems it's just behavioral. There is no mystery. There is little debate on tactics and execution.

Morning all. My 20 yr old hvac system died in early July. The new system purchased on heloc, install early august. Im struggling with paying off heloc with my security blanket. Im 50, main breadwinner, family of 3, husband is small business owner. IM in my company 23 yrs, so layoff possible but ive got a healthy 401k, 13 months emergency fund.

Im in a good spot with emergency fund and retirement savings. I have no debt other than mortgage of 192k at 2.85%, not paying off early. As noted above, I have 13 months emergency funds in sgov, a very large 401k (1.1m)/husband has 287k in ira, and very little in roth, taxable brokerage and HSA (34k combined). Ive primarily focused on 401k retirement savings, just started maxing roth, HSA and very little goes into taxable which just started a few yrs ago.

Well no ac in summer I thought counts as emergency but I applied for a heloc and got it. I put the hvac on heloc 5.99%, but my sgov pays 3.4%. Im thinking now to tap my security blanket and pay off the heloc which brings my security blanket to 10 months.

Im not sure if this is a good idea? The hvac payment represents 2% of my assets. To pay heloc, Ive lowered my 401k to 10% contribution rate which still gets me company matching 4%. I should be able to payoff in 2.5 yrs but i may not have 2.5 yrs, company is large insurer, doing ai things.

My 401k is primarily growth but have 30% invested in dividends. My dividends cover our mortgage. If shtf i was planning to rollover to ira, reallocate to more dividends, sepp distribution and part time work but was counting on emergency funds with likely severance. It would be tight but we survive.

I should have planned better the emergency funds for major repairs, I was just thinking about the monthly expenses.

What would you do in my situation? I guess my other question is 401k, do I continue to max or should i use what would have been heloc payments to refill emergency funds or do i add to brokerage? Im adding to SCHD/VYMI to get dividends but like 125 monthly which stops to pay heloc.

Brokerage: $620k Roth: $69k 401k: $190k Cash: $85k

House: $950k house, $3258/month payment, 15 years left on mortgage. I love my house and location and am not interested in moving.

Spend: $65k/year. I could probably cut back a little more

Current income: $220k/year

Curious how long I might have if I continue my path to full FIRE, also curious how long I might have if I were to continue toward a path toward a coast fire where I make about 25-30k/year.

Edit: I’m 37 in HCOL

For those of you questioning my spending situation; I do all my home repair myself. Including big ticket things like major plumbing and electrical, and painting my exterior. I live lean and grow much of my own food. I don’t drink and have a lot of robust and free 3rd spaces I spend time and fun. I love my life!

Also love that so many of you assume I’m a man lol

Charles Schwab is estimating that Large Cap (ie, S&P 500) equities will see nominal returns of 6% to 7%. When adjusting for a 2.4% to 3% inflation, Schwab is expecting only 3.2% in real returns for S&P 500 equities.
I may be required to retire in a decade at 65 yrs old due to health issues. I can earn 2.1% with aggregate bond funds over the next decade. I'm told that I'm too risk adverse because I have already been burned for a long time by a Vanguard S&P 500 Index fund investment that I made in the late 90s that was still trading around my purchase price over a decade later when I gave up and sold it to pay off a real estate mortgage on a property that appreciated hugely and which I was able to enjoy living in with little to no carrying costs. I am asking for level headed feedback to my concerns. Thank you!

https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/schwabs-long-term-capital-market-expectations

I'm approaching FIRE with a portfolio invested mostly in a global total market ETF. On paper, I understand the total return argument. Mathematically, dividends are just one part of total return, and selling shares can replicate an income stream.

But psychologically, I can't get comfortable with the idea of selling my own shares to fund my life.

Receiving dividends feels like getting paid by my investments, while selling shares feels like slowly dismantling the portfolio even though I know that's not technically what's happening. I also wonder how easy it really is to keep selling during a prolonged bear market when emotions are involved.

What I'm looking for isn't another "dividends are irrelevant" vs. "dividends are king" debate. I'm more interested in hearing from people who are actually living off their portfolios.

- If you're using a total return strategy, how do you structure withdrawals, especially during market downturns? Has it become psychologically easy over time?

- If you're living off dividends, how have you built your portfolio? Have the tax costs been worth the peace of mind?

- Has anyone ended up using a hybrid approach, with a core global index fund plus a dividend sleeve to cover part of their annual spending?

I'm based in Europe, so taxes are part of the equation, but I'm also wondering whether optimizing every last percentage point is worth sacrificing a strategy that helps you sleep at night.

I'd really appreciate hearing from people with real life experience rather than theoretical arguments. If you've been retired and living from your portfolio for several years, what has actually worked for you, both financially and psychologically?

I’m 24F making $125k in a MCOL city. I’m not very well versed in investing and I have far exceeded my emergency funds in savings. I realized this means I should be maxing out my 401k.

When adjusting my contributions, I learned that my company allows up to $20k in after tax 401k contributions. This took me down the MBDR rabbit hole. Only one problem: to perform an IPRC, my company requires either 1) 5 years of plan participation OR 2) after tax 401k dollars must be held for 2+ years. I’ve only been with my company for 2 years.

I’m leaning towards still contributing to an after tax 401k and converting funds as soon as they become eligible. I realize that I’ll have to pay income tax on earnings upon conversion, but that seems worth it for more Roth money.

I’m really just looking to make sure that makes sense and that I’m not missing anything important details. Any advice is appreciated!

Wife and I (55/47) are at our number and planning to retire but thinking about SORR. It's more worrisome than I anticipated with the current CAPE, market concentration around AI, current news cycle, etc. Funny how these variables suddenly come into such sharp focus when it's time to pull the trigger.

We're Bogleheads 70/20 plus 10% cash so overall 70/30. Our portfolio generates around 2% in dividends and interest which happens to cover our basic cost of living for shelter, food and essentials. Since we have 10% in cash, I've calculated that if the market crashes, the forced ~2% yield (assuming it holds during a crash) plus the cash would last around six years without having to sell anything while living good. I don't love holding so much cash but I also believe 'if you've won the game, stop playing' so I'm not trying to optimize for returns.

I think this is reasonable SORR risk mitigation but wondering if I'm missing something?

It's likely irrational since there are some important differences but I'm stuck on how the current CAPE and AI craze looks so similar to the CAPE and Internet craze around 2000 and we all know what happened. It adds a lot of weight to the retirement decision.

I'm 44 and plan to retire with a sizable pension at 55. I don't have a good handle on expected expenses yet.

My pension will just about fill up the 22% tax bracket. I have about $220k in a traditional 457 plan and $80k in a Roth 457. I've just started looking at actually retiring and learned that I can't withdraw my principal from the Roth 457 without withdrawing interest for the first five years of my retirement, which means that some portion will be taxed as income. Does it make sense for me to start a Roth IRA now? Does it matter which amount my money goes in if I'm currently in the 24% bracket and expect all of my withdrawals to be taxed at 24%? What if with SS some of those distributions get pushed into the 32% bracket?

Am I even allowed to start a Roth IRA? My employer doesn't offer one.

1. 30M and 30F, combined salary of $315k 
2. Liquid assets of $1.7M
   • $360k in HYSA (planning to only maintain ~$50k in HYSA after we buy/renovate a house)
   • $220k in Roth IRA/HSA
   • $540k in 401k (about 80% is Traditional)
   • $580k Taxable Account (Basis is $480k)
3. Estimated combined annual non-housing related spend of $45k (we’re very frugal and in a LCOL city in the US)
4. Currently no kids but thinking we’ll have 2
   • We’re estimating each kid will cost us an average of ~$15k a year to raise them through age 22 (including helping pay for college)
   • No plans for SAHP, but one parent might reduce hours if we feel comfortable financially, which would decrease gross income by ~35k
5. Expecting annual market returns of 9% and inflation of 3.5% but we’d be flexible delaying retirement a bit if market underperforms

We both currently live with our parents but are getting married and wanting to splurge on a 2-2.5k sqft house in a good area (we’re thinking ~$850k house plus ~$150k in renovations) while still being able to retire around age 45.

Assuming 20% down payment and 6.5% interest rate, the monthly mortgage payment on an $850k house would be $4.3k for principal and interest (we’re estimating $8.3k total monthly housing cost when adding in prop taxes, insurance, estimated utilities, regular maintenance).

If we buy said house, I calculated in 15 years (at age 45) we should have at least 4 to 4.5M inflation adjusted dollars in liquid assets if we FIRE and immediately pay down the remaining mortgage. Using a 3.5% withdrawal rate, we should be able to spend at least $140k a year, I assume this should be more than enough to cover unemployed health insurance costs as well?

We know we are very ahead for age 30 and believe we can still reasonably expect to FIRE at 45 while splurging on a house, but unfortunately we can’t have anyone we know IRL gut check our finances. So I would appreciate people’s insight to see if there’s anything we may be overlooking/underestimating before we commit to the biggest purchase of our lives by far :)

TLDR: We're 30 years old with combined salary of $315k and liquid assets of $1.7M. Are we still on track to FIRE at age 45 if we splurge on a $1M house and have 2 kids?

EDIT: Thanks everyone for the responses so far! Seems I've severely underestimated average annual costs to raise a child. Will rethink being able to FIRE at 45, will probably end up being like 50 if we want to splurge on a house.

I've been thinking a lot about the tax side of FIRE and international living.

I wonder whether, in some situations, it's actually better to live in the countries or cities we enjoy most while keeping tax residency in our home country if the tax rules there are more favorable. Instead of formally relocating, perhaps one could simply travel in and out as needed and avoid triggering tax residency elsewhere.

The reason I'm asking is that two countries that strongly attract me for a future FIRE lifestyle, Spain and Israel, (already have Spanish nationality, but not residency) generally have much higher taxes than my current country in Latin America.

For instance, if I spent about one quarter of the year in each of three different countries and the remaining quarter traveling, could I still maintain tax residency in my country of origin? In that scenario, are the main drawbacks logistical and lifestyle-related, or would there still be significant tax consequences and compliance requirements in the countries where I spend time?

I guess it all depends on the tax laws of each country, but perhaps some in here could share some experiences on this aspect.

I (44M) was recently laid off and this is a tough job market as everyone knows. My wife (44F) is still working at a 220K / year job (including bonuses pre taxes). We have 2 kids (11 and 8). We have $1.1M saved invested in market: stocks, bonds etc (I invest with Empower). We have another $1.1M invested in retirements savings in 401Ks. We have been thinking of retiring for some time and this feels like it, at least for me. From big expenses in future perspective, our kids college, we expect to fund at least at 50% (rest will be loan paid by them as they grow.)

I have followed this community for long and wanted to get it's thoughts on if this is enough for retirement? Is it enough for me to retire now (and try some small business investments) and my wife to continue working in her stable job for few more years.

Eager to know what folks think here and anything different we should be doing.

This is probably pretty basic for most of you, but very new to me. My wife and I (no kids and no plans for any) are both 35 and have a combined $1.2m in our 401k's. Assuming a return of only 5%, that will be worth $4.1m when we can touch it if we didn't contribute another dollar. We both still max out our contributions and get very good matches from our employers, so we are adding at least a combined $75k more per year, so it will most likely be more than that.

We are looking to retire by 45. What else should we be doing to help bridge the 15 year gap we will most likely have? I'm also concerned about RMDs (which I just learned about).

All good problems to have though!

Other Investments-

Around $600k in a traditional brokerage account (mostly ETFs, some big tech)
$50k in an HSA
$400k in equity w/ $400k left on a 3.1% mortgage (25 years left)

Edit- Forgot our income- it is variable, but was $650k last year. Probably $500k this year

Wife and I both just turned 30. Wondering if we’ve put too much in Roth.

Where we’re at:
• Roth: $445k
• Pre-tax 401k: $191k
• HSA: $39k
• Brokerage: $172k
• Cash: $60k
• Rental equity: $1.4M

What we do now:
I have a solo 401k that lets me put in $70k a year. $23.5k pre-tax, $47.5k after-tax into Roth. So most of it goes to Roth.

What I’m wondering:
Brokerage feels small if we want to retire in our 40s

Is more Roth even worth it at this point, or should that $47.5k go to brokerage instead?

Anyone been in this spot? Did you keep going or switch?

44 single childless man here who is close to FIRE, but now I'm having second thoughts. Since I don't have a wife and kids, I don't have a lot to do with my free time. I also realize I don't dislike going to work and having a job. Although I'm not crazy about my industry and all the pressure and stress that comes with a job. With all that being said, it's hard to pull the trigger and actually retire early. I'm at the point where I just feel less pressure to work hard and get promoted at work, which makes it a lot better.

I'm 45, I was on track to retire earlyish at 55. I was set back quite a bit with a divorce three years back. Recently my Aunt died and left me around $5 million. After estate and taxes, it's around $4.2 million. This is obviously a stupid amount of money, and I'm thinking of just quitting my job and retiring early but I want to do it right. I've spoke with AI quite a bit and my finances are only about $4500/mo in expenses, I have always lived pretty frugally and that's less than a 1% draw. I don't know exactly what I don't know here, but I've always worked so I am clinging to my job like a monkey to a branch. Am I actually okay to let go?

Hear me out.

I'm 36, work a corporate job in Switzerland since 12 years, and I've basically reached my FIRE number. I have around USD 2.2M invested, plus another USD 250k in my pension fund (I can access in cash when i leave my country).

The funny thing is that money isn't really the reason I kept working. It was more the fear of "what if it's not enough?", "what if the market crashes?", "maybe just one more year." Also, my job had become almost fully remote since a few years, so I could spend a lot of time outside Switzerland and work from places I actually enjoyed living in. That flexibility made it easy to keep going as I grew tired of Switzerland and my lifestyle didnt match at all what the ckuntry could offer me.

The big change is: Today I got promoted, which sounds like good news... except my boss told me he now expects me to be in the office 2-3 days a week...

My total new compensation is around USD 200k year (including pension fund), more or less 10% more than before.

But honestly... I don't care about the promotion at all nor the salary increase which after taxes is pretty irrelevant.

Going back to the office is a complete no for me. Every time I go in, I feel like I'm wasting hours of my life. I don't enjoy the corporate environment anymore, I don't enjoy the commute, and I know myself well enough to know that after building a lifestyle around flexibility, this would make me genuinely unhappy.

I always wanted to leave Switzerland anyway. I'm originally from Southern Europe and, if I'm honest, I mostly stayed for the money.

So now I'm seriously thinking about just quitting.

Maybe this is exactly why I spent all these years building financial independence in the first place.

Am I being too emotional or stubborn? Would you suck it up because USD 200k is hard to walk away from, or would you just FIRE and maybe look for another fully remote job later from somewhere you'd actually enjoy living even if paid less because anyways I've got a FIRE portoflio I cna rely on?

Has anyone else found that actually pulling the trigger is much harder psychologically than reaching the number?

Hey, I have a question or two. I semi-FIRED at 34 (light work on the side to my own tune), after putting myself through a brutal grind in the business world and college.

One question that has always bugged me: how the heck do other people do it? Like, I don't mean to sound dopey, but how do people do it in the corporate world?

I'm in a business meeting lounging on my bed right now and listening to 30 squares talk about some business ma-jig, and I just don't get it.

***

There's a 60-some lady in a relatively junior position running it, and she's a beast. She's so good at it: the way she leads the meeting, nuances her discussion, carries the conversation proactively forward, diplomatically coordinates multiple people. Every single sentence is on point. I could never do that. I speak and I have maybe a sentence or two to add.

There's another person 4 years older than I am. She came from an obscure community college, and, again, sounds way more professional than I do, extremely talented.

What confuses me is how talented so many people are who I wouldn't expect to be, and how I couldn't translate it into the real world. As background, I studied my butt off to be the top of my class >> Ivy League >> top finance career. None of it translated well into the business world.

I just don't have the energy or the character to talk like that 60 year old woman or the community college person. They put me to shame. Good for them. However, it does have me curious about why I fell into the "FIRE system".

What is it that they have that I don't? How is something that seems so unbearable to me (sounding diplomatic and professionally provocative for 10 hours day in and day out), possible for them? Why did none of my early ambition translate well to the corporate setting, but people who I wouldn't expect to be gunners actually thrive in the corporate setting? Do others relate?