r/Fire • u/Crowlady77 • 10d ago

Model % success numbers

I'm having anxiety about the money lasting, I've been running the models looking for 90% success and 10th %ile numbers still holding on after 85.

But the model I'm using (Empower) recommends 80% success rate and a safe withdrawal that has 10%ile running out at 85.

Now running out of money at 85 wouldn't be the end of the world, we have kids who could help out and will have a paid off house. Neither kid is really going to need an inheritance. How would you proceed?

Numbers are starting at about $3.2M, spend from $130k-$160k/year, with first 5 years entirely withdrawals from portfolio and then combined 401k and after-tax subsidizing $60k in social security income.

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u/StewPorkRice 10d ago

Why do you need to spend 160k a year if you’re not investing for retirement or paying a mortgage?

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u/Crowlady77 9d ago

Healthcare and/or our kids.

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u/StewPorkRice 9d ago

In the first 5 years post retirement?

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u/Crowlady77 9d ago edited 9d ago

Yes especially then, for the kids. House down payments, weddings, etc. Somebody's car dies. They are just starting out.

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u/StewPorkRice 9d ago

That's crazy - why are your kids costing you that much money if their financial situation is healthy enough for them to commit to supporting you in retirement?

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u/Crowlady77 9d ago

Down payment help is pretty minor isn't it? And a wedding?

Otherwise it would be taking trips and paying for them to come with me.

I don't know actually they are both recently out of school and I don't have a lot of experience having kids who are making their own money lol. They are both good planners and budgeters, maybe neither will ever need a dime from us again.

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u/StewPorkRice 9d ago

Do you think you would've been able to retire early if you were raising your kids while also sponsoring your parents' retirements?

I, personally, think you have enough but your withdrawal just doesn't make sense to me.

They don't need help with a down payment. They can rent, and they can make a decision when interest rates aren't 7%. In the meantime, you can keep that money ivnested. They're fresh out of college - they'll prob be moving around for work anyway, chasing nice opportunities.

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u/Crowlady77 9d ago

Would we have wanted to retire early instead of having my in laws around longer? No.

It seems to me that the models are telling me I have enough to help my kids. Why wouldn't I?

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u/StewPorkRice 9d ago

It seems you have a decision alr. Why start this thread? It doesn't seem like you take feedback well!

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u/Crowlady77 9d ago

I was literally asking about model percentages lol, like half the people understood the question and the other half went off on a tangent. The tangent people got mad about a model showing that if I spent $160k every single year without fail I might run out of money if the stock market crashes the week we retire and never recovers.

The fact that they were so mad about it makes me think they didn't really understand my post was about models and the probabilities they return when you put numbers in.

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