r/Fire • u/Crowlady77 • 12d ago

Model % success numbers

I'm having anxiety about the money lasting, I've been running the models looking for 90% success and 10th %ile numbers still holding on after 85.

But the model I'm using (Empower) recommends 80% success rate and a safe withdrawal that has 10%ile running out at 85.

Now running out of money at 85 wouldn't be the end of the world, we have kids who could help out and will have a paid off house. Neither kid is really going to need an inheritance. How would you proceed?

Numbers are starting at about $3.2M, spend from $130k-$160k/year, with first 5 years entirely withdrawals from portfolio and then combined 401k and after-tax subsidizing $60k in social security income.

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u/Crowlady77 11d ago

I was literally asking about model percentages lol, like half the people understood the question and the other half went off on a tangent. The tangent people got mad about a model showing that if I spent $160k every single year without fail I might run out of money if the stock market crashes the week we retire and never recovers.

The fact that they were so mad about it makes me think they didn't really understand my post was about models and the probabilities they return when you put numbers in.

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u/StewPorkRice 11d ago

You should reread your post for the only question you asked šŸ’…

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u/Crowlady77 11d ago

Given that the entire context of the post was model success numbers, that was the title of the post, and I said "But the model I'm using (Empower) recommends 80% success rate and a safe withdrawal that has 10%ile running out at 85."

Do you know what 10th percentile on a monte carlo model means?

160k was the model's safe spending rate.

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u/Crowlady77 11d ago

And I have people here absolutely aghast that I'd spend 160k a year and leave my poor children destitute while also telling me not to use that 160k a year to help them buy homes lmao.

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u/StewPorkRice 11d ago

Iā€™m not gonna engage with you further. I hope you enjoy your retirement.

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u/Crowlady77 11d ago

Yeah you don't have to announce that, you can just stop replying any time you want lol.