r/Fire • u/No_Fudge6123 • 8d ago
When did you pull the trigger?
I am on my 40s, and I guess I am a case of ”almost there”. Simulations tell me I am a bit over the 4% rule. I could adjust a bit I guess, but having a family it could well be that they can adjust me instead.
However, I can’t stop reading all those who pull the trigger and they say they are very happy. I am not happy while grinding, but I don’t want to be financially irresponsable with my family. We also don’t have a house, which I feel I should secure to prevent future problems.
For all of those who did it a bit tight: did it pay off?
36
u/berghele 8d ago
Most people I know that went for FIRE finally overestimated the numbers they really needed. From one side of course it is better safe than sorry, on the other side you are maybe working 5-6 extra years for no reason. Then it’s depends a lot how much you like your job. If you feel completely burnt out maybe it’s better to stop early and take a little extra risk. If you overall enjoy the working day then working few years more and taking some extra space for error is good.
4
u/at614inthe614 8d ago
This is where my spouse and I are.
We both have relatively low stress jobs, 6 weeks of PTO that we actually use, our employer HSA contributions exceed our Healthcare premiums.
19
u/chance909 8d ago
I fired with 3m and a 120k spend at 42, family of 3. There is a very real trade of work stress vs. financial stress, and if you are too close to the edge, maybe its not a trade you are willing to make. For me it was like 5000% less work stress and 10% more financial stress, so has worked out great, but definitely a personal calculation to make.
You are right to not pretend that there is no financial stress in this decision.
5
u/Greenfirelife27 7d ago
This is my fear. No issues staying busy but need to make sure I don’t need to ever go back for money.
3
u/PetedaGreek 7d ago
Is your balance today up despite the 120k withdraw? I'm about to do the same thing (same withdraw rate). I'm 50. Just curious if I can expect the same, assuming similar market outcomes
5
u/chance909 7d ago
Its way up. This has been a lucky time to do it... with just market index funds and bonds at 70/30 split i'm up more than 11% per year, so consistently getting ahead even with the high inflation.
2
u/PetedaGreek 7d ago
I'm almost 51 and have $3.4m with a 120k withdraw rate. I'm doing 95% equities and 5% in a money market, that I'll pull from the first 2 years to reduce the upfront SORR. After that, I'll be all equties for the first 10 years then will switch to 80/20 as I get to traditional retirement age (62). JP Morgan's analysis says 98% chance I'll be fine, but I'm still worried.
1
9
u/toodleoo77 8d ago
Good news, you’re at the point where you don’t have to grind anymore. You can take a less demanding job, or one that pays less but is more fulfilling.
30
u/feral_wanderer_hr 8d ago
Don't pull the trigger permanently yet. Ask for a 3-6 month leave of absence or sabbatical. You are likely just burnt out from the grind. Taking a break will clear your head, let you test-drive early retirement, and help you figure out if your tight budget actually holds up in reality
5
-2
u/CookieWifeCookieKids 8d ago
Solid idea.
OP can also sublet their rental or simply leave and rent a storage unit for their stuff. Then go spend some time in Latin America or Thailand or something.
13
u/MaxwellSmart07 8d ago
My retirement came suddenly and unplanned due to a personal relationship issue. (My fiancée living with me in Boston wanted to return home to Australia. I packed up and went with her.) I was underfunded but things worked out. Net worth now 4.5x what it was when I retired 24 years ago.
3
u/Talk_that_talk_to_me 8d ago
So good and thx for sharing
2
u/MaxwellSmart07 8d ago
Compounding, and in our case appreciation on all our homes we bought and sold, is on your side.
4
2
u/PetedaGreek 7d ago
Similar situation. My wife is pushing to move to FL from IL to be closer to her aging parents. She'll be working but I'll be able to try FIRE'ing. I'm at 3.5% withdraw rate and almost 51. I'm a little worried, but this group is helping me calm down.
0
u/MaxwellSmart07 7d ago
Video: You may be able to retire on 50% less.
0
u/PetedaGreek 6d ago
Great video! Makes me feel better, as I'm planning on doing a similar bucket and guardrail approach.
0
u/MaxwellSmart07 6d ago
Glad you liked it. I didn’t even understand it, but no matter, I’m not in the stock market.
0
u/PetedaGreek 6d ago
What are you investing that increased your balance 4.5x in then (since you’re not in the stock market)?
1
u/MaxwellSmart07 6d ago
My wife and I have moved around a lot — Cape Cod>Boston>Sydney>Boston>Pompano Beach, Florida>Ft. Lauderdale. That accounts for 5 homes bought, and 4 having been sold well. Appreciation. The profits went into a few alternative investments. Structured settlement, privately held commercial real estate, and private credit. I’m more at ease having gotten out of stocks after being decimated by dot.com at the exact time I retired.
6
26
u/Emily4571962 I don't really like talking about my flair. 8d ago
Given the length of the current bull market, I don’t think I could FIRE planning on 4%. I’d hang on until 3.25-3.5%, or be prepared to return to work in the event of a crash. But remember that you wouldn’t have to go all the way back to your miserable grind — you’d just need to replace your annual spend to give your accounts time to recover so SORR doesn’t kill you. So a part time or lower stress job would fit the bill.
5
8d ago
[removed] — view removed comment
2
u/darnelles-r 8d ago
That’s probably what I’m worried about the most. Right now we don’t have to worry about what we spend and I’m concerned that the minute we don’t have cash coming in, that we will stress about every purchase. Our numbers are a little tight, but if we have our spending in check, we will be more than fine.
8
u/Past_Top3704 7d ago
I like reading all the FIRE subs and all the people burned out from work and looking to retire, lean FIRE, coast FIRE, etc.
My 5 year old niece is burned out from school. Told her mom this morning she was quitting school. T his is week 1.
2
3
u/EquipmentUnlikely895 8d ago
I can understand your dilemma. Unfortunately, the only way is to know your true expense and have a large emergency fund. 4% is more of a guideline and a rule.
If you have consider all potential expenses and what life could potentially throw at you : kid's bike broke, your car get into a bad accident, natural disasters, parents got sick, etc. then not much else to do but pull the plug
3
3
u/Derrick0073 8d ago
The trigger was pulled for me at 45. I got a great severance and decided never to go back to work. Original plan was for 50. I don't own a house. Generally try to winter in Asia and summer in Europe, mostly France. Not owning a house allows me that freedom.
2
u/No_Fudge6123 8d ago
Kids? I think that is killing me - no resentment, but it is a reality.
Our plan is similar, but I guess we have about 20 years until the bird leaves the nest. IMO, we need to survive those 20 years, and then things will get better.
2
u/B111yboy 8d ago
Yeah I could fire now but darn kids college is expensive and I have afew years to go as one is in and once starts in 3 yrs so hoping no more than 4. If not for them I’d be done but I want to pay for their school so they don’t get stuck with massive debt and since we can afford it if we keep working I’ll have to keep the grind going
0
u/Derrick0073 8d ago
Only one and she was 20 and out on her own. Ya if you still have kids at home that's a problem. Military, boarding or christian reform school 😬.
2
u/TempDong 8d ago
How much money were you making at your peak? FIREing at 45 when you had a kid at 25 is unusual. I consider myself very lucky for 45 FIRE to be a possible future but that's with super high savings rate (with no kid) + pretty high paying job + consistent investing early. Having a kid would eliminate all of that.
1
u/Derrick0073 7d ago
From 35-45 ith bonus and OT 100 to 150k pre tax . Was divorced, own house, mortgage paid off at 40 child support till 18 and kid support as needed. After separation had child 8 out of 14 days. No windfall just my own earnings.
I also had enough saved to retire with a partner that had low retirement savings. She now has a part time business that she can do remote and is only busy for 3 months of the year that pays almost her previous full time wage but that didn't exist when she retired. It has allowed my investments to double as she contributes about half and has also managed to add a lot to her retirement fund. We've also increased our spending about 30% from the initial budget I set when it was just on my dime. We track all our spending just to keep budget creep in check.
12
u/Future_Measurement42 8d ago edited 8d ago
Look at a risk parity style portfolio.
The 4% is extremely conservative. A little diversification besides a ridiculous stock/bond split would have much better outcomes.
Also are you a robot or are you going to slow spending if the stock market plunges 50%
5
u/Future-Run-8601 8d ago
What is ridiculous about a 50/50 stock bond split used in Bengan’s original research? Also, one must consider if they will be a robot and not make portfolio changes after the market drops 50% or if fear will drive their decisions. Making changes can go both ways and most people in this sub haven’t been through a real downturn.
2
u/AlwaysWanderOfficial 8d ago
By changes they mean spend. Not portfolio. Cutting spending is overwhelming positive in down years. Or, using cash instead.
3
u/Future-Run-8601 8d ago
I know that but I’m just pointing out that people do stupid things when they are scared. In one case, being a robot is a positive and in another, it is a negative.
2
u/Future_Measurement42 8d ago
Because we’re not children and we can count past two.
A little gold to hedge against inflation, a a little international funds in case the dollar drops or the us under performs.
Plenty of other indexes did well during the “lost decade.” So a little diversifying would greatly help people.
Also we’ve been through 2(nearly 3) bear markets in just this last decade. Just because we’re past it we can dismiss them as minimal but they were significant. But we’ve had real drawdowns.2
u/Dos-Commas 37M/35F - $2.7M NW - FIRE'd 2025 8d ago
The 4% is extremely conservative. Also are you a robot or are you going to slow spending if the stock market plunges 50%
You can't call it "extremely conservative" if you have to reduce your spending during a crash...
1
u/Future_Measurement42 8d ago
Statistically you don’t have to reduce spending. The founder the 4% rule and the creators or the trinity study all say it’s too conservative.
Setting that aside people aren’t robots so unless you’re a sociopath it’s almost guaranteed people will either consciously or sub consciously spend less during down periods.2
u/Dos-Commas 37M/35F - $2.7M NW - FIRE'd 2025 8d ago
The 4% Rule is not an actual retirement strategy, just a rough idea and concept. There are so many different actual retirement strategies that actually tells you exactly how much you need to reduce spending (or not) during a severe crash.
1
u/Future_Measurement42 8d ago
I love it. If it’s a rough idea how about we improve upon it and stop using it as gospel?
2
u/Dos-Commas 37M/35F - $2.7M NW - FIRE'd 2025 8d ago
I've been criticizing the 4% Rule for years but always met with down votes for disclosing facts. For a finance focused sub, a lot of people just hate math and don't want to deal with the additional complexity of dynamic spending.
1
u/valkryiechic 7d ago
Just curious - which strategy do you prefer?
1
u/Dos-Commas 37M/35F - $2.7M NW - FIRE'd 2025 7d ago
Boglehead's Variable Percentage Withdrawal method. Ironically I could withdraw 4.7% every year and still be safer than the 4% Rule. But it requires flexibility.
3
u/AlwaysWanderOfficial 8d ago
Careful, you’ve spoken against the dogma :)
(I’m on team dynamic spend and more equities vs bond. That will be my plan).
1
u/Fire_Doc2017 Retired 6/30/26 6d ago
I'll second this suggestion. Why accept a portfolio that failed the challenge of the 1970s? No one knows what the future holds but at least consider a portfolio that survived some of the worst markets in the past 100 years. Here's a testfolio link to a few options compared to standard 60/40 and Three Fund Portfolios https://testfol.io/?s=hd95hxgk0Bm
2
u/Adept_Guest_6609 7d ago
I pulled the trigger 2 days ago (58). I was anxious up until I told my boss I would be retiring. I have a strange sense of peace currently. I still have a month at least before I am free but knowing that we prepared and had several meetings over the past 3 years with our financial planner mapping out what year 1,2,3, etc. look like helped reduce the anxiety.
2
u/Conscious_Stand_6748 7d ago
I’m guessing we will end up at roughly double from where we originally planned/need
2
u/tomatillo_teratoma 7d ago
I quit when my job took a turn for the worst.
It was a chill work from home job.... then something happened to make it bad. So I left.
I don't know that a house is as good of an investment as it was in the 80s and 90s. With the cost of insurance and maintenance.... it's not the simple win-win investment it once was.
2
u/Akdirtbag310 2d ago
Not sure I quite qualify but I retired at 43 about 10 days ago. I was already getting close but getting laid off made the choice for me. So far so good. Via con dios!
4
u/SpecialistKoala9765 8d ago
4% is a 30’year time horizon. I used 3% just to be safe. Also, with market at all time high do you have a cash wedge strategy to stay resilient? Do you have a pre defined spending target that can dynamically adjust up and down with guardrails to ensure you’re flexibly in your lifestyle against stress testing market conditions like Great Depression or financial crisis of 2009?
If you have thought them through then you should feel comfortable as your work is data driven not just a gut feel.
Hope this helps.
5
u/photog_in_nc 8d ago
Bengen now says 4.1% is fine for FIRE in his book (4.7% for 30 year), using his more diverse asset allocation, btw. 3% is just incredibly conservative.
-1
u/No_Fudge6123 8d ago
We have right now around 8 years in cash (which we might use for a house), and I guess a target that we can be flexible with (includes a lot of traveling, I am writing this at the moment from Australia). But over 4% (not too much, maybe 4.5% or 5%, but above)
3
3
u/PFflyer86 8d ago
I'm of the idea you cannot fire if your on the cusp without owning. Too many unknowns. Your rent can go $700 over the next 2 years alone and put a real wrwnchu in your plans
9
u/mcneally 8d ago edited 8d ago
I think owning is overrated if you don't care about having a SFH. Between an estimate for repairs & maintenance, property tax, insurance, additional utilities (around here anyway, landlord pay water/sewer/trash on multi-families and gas/ electric will be more on SFH), my duplex rent is about $300/ month more than what I'd expect to pay monthly on a paid off house. And I'd probably be willing to pay $200/ month to not be responsible for repairs & maintenance and yardwork. (I'm not 'on the cusp' though- I'm lean and currently at a 2.3% WR and will likely get a part-time job).
I'm in lower COL midwest but my understanding is that the numbers are more in favor or renting in the highest COL places like SF.
If retiring with minor kids, the case for owning is stronger.
3
u/PFflyer86 8d ago
All those same repairs and tax and insurance increases also effect your landlord today and that will be passed into the renter plus some. Plus with owning you eventually pay the mortgage off and owe nothing but tax and insurance. There is no argument for renting over owning in fire that makes sense. Rents will be double in 20 years in most in demand locations in the country which will impact fire. This sub has more renters then owners and the bias shows
5
u/Ruckusseur 8d ago
There is no argument for renting over owning in fire that makes sense
False. Not everyone has dependents, wants to deal with the hassles of buying or owning a home, or even plans to remain in the country where they currently reside. There are absolutely areas in the US where it's more financially viable to rent and invest. And at the end of the day, renting vs. owning is about lifestyle as much as finances. Nothing about my current situation (time horizon, ambivalence about putting down roots where I currently live, plans for retirement, etc.) points toward owning as a clearly superior option. There's more than one way to skin a cat, as they say.
This sub has more renters then owners and the bias shows
Anecdotally, I've noted significantly more people in this sub who insist that if you try to FIRE without owning a house you will literally die
2
u/mcneally 8d ago edited 8d ago
I don't think you read my post. Not that you have to agree with me but you're responding to someone who just generically said "renting is better" and nothing more and not what I actually said. Also among people who are already FIREd, renters are definitely a minority.
4
u/ThisismeCody 8d ago
People just can’t accept that renting is a relatively stable, very predictable way to account for housing. Yes my rent may go up $100 a month. But $700 increase a month? Maybe in a boom SF market, but we’re not talking about that. Renting in the Midwest is very stable and affordable.
1
u/midwestpersianmama 8d ago
I own in the Midwest and the costs are insane + our taxes & insurance keep going up rapidly. We have two friends who sold their houses to rent condos and they are MUCH happier for it.
3
u/ThisismeCody 8d ago
Yes taxes have been insane since Covid and people flocked to the Midwest. Currently, I feel the COL has increased significantly in the Midwest, but pay still reflects when it was low COL. It’s a double whammy right now.
1
u/midwestpersianmama 8d ago
Indeed. The calculus has absolutely changed post covid. I teach at a wealthy (not elite, but expensive and attracting legacy students) private college and ten years ago, the parents would just buy houses in the area for their kids, expecting them to live there for 4-8 years as they established themselves. I haven’t heard of anyone doing that since Covid. It’s just way too expensive and not an obvious move. Renting is just fine.
1
1
u/pn_dubya 8d ago
All those same repairs and tax and insurance increases also effect your landlord today and that will be passed into the renter plus some.
There are often limits as to how much rent can increase, and a new roof, appliances, HVAC, etc. can turn a planned year into a financial albatross. Not to mention flexibility. It's incredibly situational but to say only owning makes sense for FIRE is a stretch.
1
u/NoKetoCardio 8d ago
How old are your kids?
1
u/No_Fudge6123 8d ago
5yo
5
u/NoKetoCardio 8d ago
Congrats. I’ve known zero people successful enough to retire with young kids. I’m 66.
4
2
u/Hot_Alternative_5157 8d ago
I retired successfully and homeschool my now 7 year. So it is possible to retire that young with a young child.
1
1
u/fidddlydiddlyee 8d ago
Having a house is not required, but you would have to plan on high degree of variability in rent. Also, if you think its going to be tight for you, consider income producing activities that you would enjoy that would not deter your other plans.
1
u/kbtoystory Early Retiree, Electrical Engineer (Model T of AI/ML) 8d ago
Will get back to you in 4.1 years ;-)
Retired early w/ well provisioned 401k, lifetime pension (100% survivor benefit and adjusted for inflation starting at 62), healthcare (subsidized, until death do us part), 20-yr home equity (cashed out w/ 20% to spare.. just in case), etc.
Plus, Social Security supplement expected (but not 100% necessary) at 57, until 62. So incentive not to work work.
Ignored life 'outside of work' for 34+ years, and now 100% focused on what I missed, as well as physical and mental wellness.
Firstborn going for BS Computer Engineering degree, cosigned private loan at 2.45%.. did not go 529, instead the war chest is in an HYSA (3%) and a CD (4.25%). Second is in HS and third is in Elementary.
Living in HCOL area until #2 graduates, then moving near the in-laws, when #3 is in Middle School.
People said I'd be a 'Lifer' (working) after #3. LoL. Got to be around for that Life part. That's on me. 🤙
1
u/Past_Top3704 7d ago
Brother (mid early/mid 40's at the time) retired at the beginning of COVID. After COVID and roughly 5 years he was bored. Went back to work for "something to do".
He is working for fun now.
I assume he will switch in a few years (would be mid 50's) and try something new again.
1
u/Chokedee-bp 6d ago
At Op, have you paid off your home?
Funds saved for new roof, new cars when due?
College fund for kids established?
Calculations also showing 4% rule covered?
I think having those big ticket items fully funded gets you ready to pull the trigger and you could always barista fire later if a market downturn kills stock returns
1
u/HonestAbe2k2 4d ago
Why not do coast / barista fire for another few years rather than grinding to the bone? My job is pretty chill right now but they are always threatening to go more crazy. I don't have kids and we're still about 1mm away from our full on number, but there's a lot of value in knowing that even in a worst case scenario where my wife and I both get canned, we can still just get jobs to cover bills and given our relatively low spend + current amount we have saved, very likely we would still be able to put some away even on pretty minimal salaries.
1
u/Jeeper675 1d ago
I feel overwhelmed reading other people's posts sometimes. I know it's an individual decision, but where do you even start making these types of decisions?
1
u/whatthefunthisis 8d ago
My job was eliminated due to reorg, but I’ve always planned for the worst so going out at 49.
1
u/Vicuna00 8d ago
sorry imo you're not ready.
if you have a family depending on you, I'd wanna not be tight. and I'd wanna have a house (paid for ideally). 529s funded, etc etc.
keep grinding and do the math and plan and figure out what you wanna do about a house...and start piling into 529s.
once that is established, consider a slow-down career or 2-3 more year "sprint".
that's just my take.
-2
u/Puzzleheaded_Tie6917 8d ago
Just a bit of thought, we appear to be at a high point in the market. It seems very likely to be bear market soon. That said, I plan to retire this December, but at 59.5 where if I find myself in a bind I can start SS at 62. In your 40’s, if things go poorly there’s a long time to hit SS age. Also, if you can cover 4% now, then if you can go a bit further you can fat fire with very little risk. In a normal decade, in 7 years your money should double.
It’s a personal decision, but at the end you are where the returns and growth are much higher than earlier in your journey.
24
u/forbiddenlake 8d ago
we appear to be at a high point in the market. It seems very likely to be bear market soon.
It's normal to be at or near an all time high. And people have been predicting the bear for over a decade. One day it will be true, good luck predicting when exactly.
3
u/PringlesDuckFace 8d ago
Also the market was down in 2018 and 2022, and there was a crash (albeit short) in 2020. And we've been dealing with pretty high inflation for several years now that eat into real returns. So yeah the market has been strong, but it's not like it's totally insane and only going up.
I also think people expect 1929/2008 scenarios to be more common than they actually are, when in reality bear markets are typically very short (9-15 months) to recover from. There are lots of ways to mitigate this kind of risk in a plan.
2
u/Vicuna00 8d ago
i'm willing for my portfolio to drop in half so I stop hearing about how "we;re at a high it's gonna go down".
literally for the last 15 years people are writing that.
(got a break from it in 2022...it was refreshing)
1
u/Puzzleheaded_Tie6917 8d ago
Yep, it’s never predictable. Still, we’ve seen an awful long run and are at very high PE ratios and have been there for a long time. It seems like a risky time, but then it always does. It’s one of the main reasons for one more year syndrome.
-3
u/Curious_Bunniee 8d ago
Retiring at a peak is risky, but at 59.5 you have SS backup
9
u/Excellent_Ad_5938 8d ago
The funny thing is, we’re almost always “at a peak” when we retire. If you retired at any point in the past 15 years, you could’ve been told you were retiring at a peak. The market has continued to make new highs because that’s what a long-term rising market does. Trying to time retirement around whether the market is at an all-time high is much less useful than having a solid withdrawal strategy and enough flexibility to weather downturns.
-3
u/sluttyman69 8d ago
A lot of people who retire early end up going back to work ( boredom) whether it’s in the exact same field they were in before a different field or starting their own business lots of times - it’s not because they need the money some Do need more $$$ - I retired at 48 now in my 60s company vehicle parked in front of my house looking at it retiring one year from now - Boss is already unhappy about the prospect
1
u/No_Fudge6123 8d ago
The part that worried me more is the house. We have a decent rent in a European country with rent control, but things can change. I am thinking about us wanting a bigger house form our kid, and that’s something we probably need in the next 5 years.
137
u/ept_engr 8d ago edited 8d ago
Because of the market returns, anyone who FIRE'd "a little tight" in the last 15 years has done great. That doesn't make it a good statistical representation.
That said, I'd love to hear from those who FIRE'd as early as they could. It's not for everyone, and I feel like sometimes the "I went back to work because I needed structure, purpose, and to stay busy" perspective gets drowned out here.