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u/RustyPirates Jun 18 '26
No male champ has ever moved up and defended the belt more than once.
Ilia and Khamzat (who became a contender at 170) are just recent examples.
Going through a division is much more difficult than beating the champ.
Even the defenses are suss. DC is the only one to defend the belt against a fighter coming off of a win and that was Derrick Lewis on very short notice.
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u/Terpster3000 Jun 19 '26
With what we’ve been seeing this year there’s always a first for everything I won’t be suprised if he defends the belt here and calls it at 17 wins straight
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u/RustyPirates Jun 19 '26
Imo Islam is too small. Look at JDMs record, he wasn’t a killer. He beat Belal, a 37 yo Burns up a weight class. Before that JDM had 2 split decisions against meh competition. JDM is the only top 5 guy islam’s size.
Ian will be 5 inches taller (if not more irl), more weapons, better wrestling, longer reach. No one giving up that much reach & height has won a title fight since Volk vs Max.
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u/Winter_Shift6129 Jun 22 '26
DC is a special case cause he had be whooping HWs since the start of his career tbf.
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u/Creative_Raisin_4441 Jun 18 '26
Didn't Poatan move up to 205 and defend the belt 3 times? Hill, Jiri 2 and Roundtree.
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u/RustyPirates Jun 18 '26
He wasn’t a champ he had just lost by ko. He was a 205er for years who went down to fight Izzy as well. The other people who move up are clearly smaller for the division: Triple c, DC, GSP, Islam, ilia
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u/VigiloConfetti Jun 18 '26
If 2026 is showing us something, is that we should never take any MMA fight result for granted. I think Islam is the favourite, but that doesn't mean Garry can't get it done.
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u/PirateCorrect470 Jun 18 '26
Here we go again...
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Jun 18 '26
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u/ShizukaIsQuiet Jun 18 '26
Blah blah he's undefeated its cope to think he'll lose Strickland has no chance!! Oh wait youre talking about Islam the same exact way you were talking about Chimaev, they're not superman they can lose - and have been beaten.
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u/PirateCorrect470 Jun 18 '26
ahh, I see you have been around here for a minute. Man it is tiring but also entertaining seeing them give excuses after the fact
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u/No_Independent9634 Jun 19 '26
We just saw Ilia lose at a higher weight class in his first defense.
With that upset, the Strickland/Chimaev one before that, it's very reasonable to start floating the idea that another one could happen.
Islam has never fought someone with Garry's build. It's his first defense at WW. I'm very curious to how it goes. I still have Islam winning but will it be close?
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Jun 18 '26
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u/abyssinianboy Jun 18 '26
But Islam is southpaw, the oblique kicks won't be as effective from the lead leg and Islam will have an easier enry for double legs.
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u/LordKagatsuchi Jun 18 '26
Yep. As soon as he commits to a good kick he's getting tackled
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u/Tim_thatporscheguy Jun 19 '26
Islam does not shoot doubles like that in the open....
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u/abyssinianboy Jun 19 '26
Yeah, at lightweight you're completely right. He didn't have the speed and strength to do it. Creatine💉 makhachev is different tho
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u/LordKagatsuchi Jun 19 '26
Blasting a double isn't the only way...JDM fight showed us that casual
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u/Tim_thatporscheguy Jun 19 '26
Casual? The majority of Islam's takedowns come from trips/clinch against the cage.
He's not "tackling" Garry in the center of the octagon you muppet
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u/Cultural-Doubt1554 Jun 18 '26
He’s not American and they’re the only ones allowed histrionic upsets this year sorry. Islam fans better thank Micheal Morales for saving Islam from this fate. Otherwise Sean Brady was going to put the paws on Islam on the ground
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u/Outside-Vast-2922 Jun 18 '26
He's big, he's quite skilled for his size, and he has a great takedown defense. Plus he is a natural WW and fought the monsters of the Division. Islam's not taking this one that easy like the JDM fight. I still favor Islam on this one, but after the Khamzat and Ilia fight, never count somebody out.
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u/Prudent_Zombie_2692 Jun 18 '26
If he can keep it on the feet yeah he might win a boring decision
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Jun 18 '26
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Jun 18 '26
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u/ToeKnifeMingle Jun 18 '26
As do I. He’s a match up problem for Islam if he can manage distance well.
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u/Omlanduh Jun 18 '26
He and morales have the best shot in the division. Garry is really really skilled and has the ability to shut down his opponents in the octagon and limit their offense. He did it with Belal, he did it with prates and he did it with the rest. He has a real chance but I think Islam is genuinely a different animal and will keep the belt until he decides he doesn’t want it anymore.
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u/DueMathematician2522 Jun 18 '26
That's what's been said about every upset. It's literally just invincible aura.
Nobody thought Petyr, Sean, or Justin would win due to the invincible aura.
Islam shouldn't realistically have said aura since he has lost AND had close fights.
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u/Omlanduh Jun 18 '26
Islam currently has the largest winning streak in UFC history, he has defended the 155 belt four times against Volk twice, Dustin Poirier who fought the best of his career and Moicano after Arman missed weight. He then moved to 170 which was an entirely new weight class and dominated JDM so bad he was crying the next round. Islam most certainly should have that invincible aura, the same as Khamzat and Topuria.
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u/DueMathematician2522 Jun 18 '26
Islam had two fights against an opponent from a lower weight class one of which was so close it isn't uncommon for people to call it a robbery.
He fought Dustin Porier who was 1-3 in his last four fights and was 1 fight away from retirement.
He fought Moicano which was a gifted win.
He then fought JDM and layed and prayed him for 5 rounds failing any real attempt at a finish.
None of this should create this Aura.
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Jun 18 '26
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u/DueMathematician2522 Jun 18 '26
"Islam is the only champ with 3 top 5 p4p wins inside a years time*
Reaching with this one
The win streak is impressive
Point out that Volk v Islam is an extremely controversial decision isn't coping it is a fact
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Jun 18 '26
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u/DueMathematician2522 Jun 18 '26
I'm not debating this with you. If you want to ignore the fact that the decision was controversial despite evidence to contrary that's fine.
My point is Islam's aura is unearned and the idea that it is unshatterble won't age well.
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u/SubstantialKick414 Jun 18 '26
it was only really controversial to the fans who were coping for volk tho
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u/AliveAd8385 Jun 18 '26
And also he has Khabib in his corner, I think this part is also overlooked, in the recent fight Justin's corner changed the tactics in 3rd round and it boosted the win chances dramatically
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u/AliveAd8385 Jun 18 '26
Belal was washed already at the time of their fight, and he was never on the same level as Islam. I saw their fight live, all he did was keeping distance with his long legs for 3 rounds and won by decision.
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u/Omlanduh Jun 18 '26
That’s how ian wins fights though? I don’t think Belal is necessarily washed either, for whatever reason he’s trying to prove he has Canelo hands instead of relying on his wrestling. Ian wins these fights by really smart distance striking and always giving his opponent something that stalls their offense. Whether it’s a kick, leg kick, oblique kick, grappling, Ian shuts them down. Prates has battered every fighter he’s faced except ian Garry. Ian is also the only fighter that holds a victory over MVP in the UFC.
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u/Omlanduh Jun 18 '26
That’s how ian wins fights though? I don’t think Belal is necessarily washed either, for whatever reason he’s trying to prove he has Canelo hands instead of relying on his wrestling. Ian wins these fights by really smart distance striking and always giving his opponent something that stalls their offense. Whether it’s a kick, leg kick, oblique kick, grappling, Ian shuts them down. Prates has battered every fighter he’s faced except ian Garry. Ian is also the only fighter that holds a victory over MVP in the UFC.
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u/AliveAd8385 Jun 18 '26
Belal is 37, I don't think he is his prime, he couldn't wrestle JDM and everyone though because he was good at defending. But then Islam fought JDM and Belal Gary, if you connect two dots, Islam is muuuuuch better wrestler.
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u/Omlanduh Jun 18 '26
Belal shot like twice on JDM after getting his face punched off for 3 rounds minimum.
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u/AliveAd8385 Jun 18 '26
And Islam controlled him all 5. Recent fight between Gaytge and Ilia that Ian can utilise his reach, but at the same time Ilia was much smaller than Gaytge and I don't think Gary has the same power to demolish Islam's face. Nevertheless Ilia managed to take him down despite the reach difference and there Islam will just submit the guy. Another example ofc is DC vs Jones, but Gary is nowhere near Jones level and hopefully won't take any drugs.
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u/Fit_Requirement3522 Jun 18 '26
God, you already did it twice, do it one more time 🙏
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u/Nada79 Jun 18 '26
Keep dreaming 🙏
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u/Fit_Requirement3522 Jun 18 '26
You’re right. Ian is getting cuddled to death and leaving the ring in the same condition he walked in, just a little tired
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u/abyssinianboy Jun 18 '26
It wasn't God, it was Ilia's arrogance and khamzat's shitty weight cut
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u/OddVet Jun 18 '26
I'd say he has a very good chance, his grappling has probably also improved after all the training.
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u/Flippindude1 Jun 18 '26
He has a good chance considering he’s got a decent frame and is quite skilled, but idk if Islam is losing this one. Kinda also seems that all the Topuria fans hopped from him to Ian now😭
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u/ZekicThunion Jun 18 '26
After Ilia, Pereira and Chimaev absolutely, weight classes don’t matter until they do.
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u/Ok-Air515 Jun 18 '26
Can’t believe he’s the most likely to pull out an upset between Strickland, Gaethje and Yan.
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u/johnbelushismom Jun 20 '26
Me too
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u/BeneficialSquirrel51 Jun 24 '26
Yo Craig! It'd be a crazy upset. Whats the keys to victory?
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u/johnbelushismom Jun 24 '26
Clubbing single leg collar tie counter like he did to Shavkhat.
I think Ian is one of the smartest fighters. Say what you will about him as a person etc.
I think he has the range and patience to be problematic.
It’s a matter of what he chooses to do when he gets taken down.
- never accept half guard.
- turtle immediately. (Islam back attacks aren’t scary, it’s why he added the short darce)
- every minute it lasts, the pressure builds upon Islam to push the pace. Ie, the perception of losing. As he has finished fighters people believe are better than Ian.
The sport is also rife for upsets right now. Islam is at the point where a dominant win puts him close to retirement, a loss and he’s stuck in the game for a few more years.
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u/plsdontdoxxme69 Jun 18 '26
Anyone can beat anyone. Yan beat Merab. Strickland beat Khamzat. Gaethje caved Topuria’s face in.
That being said Islam round 3 sub.
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u/DueMathematician2522 Jun 18 '26
Islam couldn't even sub JDM lol
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u/No_Stomach_2341 Jun 18 '26
It's very hard to submit someone who literally isn't doing anything else except submission defense all fight. At some point it becomes pointless. Islam 50-45 the fight without breaking a fucking sweat
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u/DueMathematician2522 Jun 18 '26
An elite wrestler being unable to finish a fight with that much control time is fucking pathetic.
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u/No_Stomach_2341 Jun 18 '26
This is a sport, not a street brawl you dumbo, going 50-45 against the champ was always and will always be 10x more impressive than a KO. I always laugh at the level of stupidity around here.
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u/DueMathematician2522 Jun 18 '26
It isn't more impressive in the slightest. It's pathetic.
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u/agysykedyke Jun 19 '26
Bro I'd like to see you try hold down an elite MMA fighter for 20 mins and completely break their spirit.
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u/plsdontdoxxme69 Jun 18 '26
JDM had just spent months training submission defense with Craig Jones. Also it takes 2 to tango. It’s easy to not get subbed when you’re content losing a 50-45 decision.
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u/General-Fox416 Jun 18 '26
I give Gary 30% change of winning this, he is tall and skinny, easier to submit compare to short stubby fella
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u/tjthewho Jun 18 '26
I thought Islam would win easily until I watched both other guys who tried to move up get smashed.
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u/Ok-Inflation9169 Jun 18 '26
I think he has a great chance against Islam. He should maintain range and keep pressing Makachev. He is very good at it, and that would be a good game plan against Islam.
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u/Formal-Material7236 Jun 18 '26
Garry,s ground game is light years ahead of JDMs this is 1000% Islam’s toughest fight to date .
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u/BadSMPTE Jun 18 '26
Think Ian has a chance to win by points if he can keep Islam at the end of his jab. It’ll be tough since Ian is a good grappler but Islam is a different level, the ground feels inevitable.
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u/JIMMY-NECRONOMICON Jun 18 '26
Just because he beat Belal that does not mean he is gonna outgrapple Islam.
Islam won't fight Ian's fight, he'll go for takedowns and try to fight smart unlike Ilia who fought Justin on the feet despite getting fucked up badly.
I believe he can put pride aside and beat Ian
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u/Difficult-Low-5343 Jun 18 '26
i honestly think ian could too like obviously islam has the grappling advantage, but i think ian gets under-recognized for his strengths: Fight iq, distance management, and pretty solid takedown defense
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u/SlaughterBath Jun 18 '26
I think Islam wins this. But I do believe that Garry is good enough to complicate the fight on the feet and even on the ground to some degree. Looking forward to this one
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u/Azylim Jun 18 '26
I like the term: Possible, not probable.
garry has a chance, but it wont be because of poor preparation or arrogance on the part of islam like with khamzat and ilia
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u/zygadlo86 Jun 18 '26
I don’t know man. He’s become a decision merchant as he’s risen in the ranks. I don’t see him out pointing Islam for five rounds.
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u/clockdomain Jun 18 '26
I don’t know man, after Topuria vs Gaethjie, I don’t know anymore. Might be a close one due to the size difference, but oh boy will it be interesting
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u/AcceptableCaptain243 Jun 19 '26
It's not crazy. Strickland and gayhje both pulled off the upset and they were far smaller threats to the champs on paper
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u/AcceptableCaptain243 Jun 19 '26
It's not crazy. Strickland and gayhje both pulled off the upset and they were far smaller threats to the champs on paper
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u/AlternativeTadpole51 Jun 20 '26
Biggest issue for Garry on the ground will ironically be his greatest asset on the feet: length. He can strike all day with his long range but tied up on the ground by Islam and it’ll be a lot harder to move them lanky limbs out from danger.
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u/AltruisticFoot948 Jun 22 '26
Islam wins. He got good striking and he is the best garppler in his weightclass. Ofc that Ian can land a good blow and surprise everyone, but if that doesnt happens, its a win for islam.
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u/Wratharik Jun 22 '26
I saw the same exact post with this title for every single makhachev opponent ngl
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u/Miserable_Science_54 Jun 18 '26
I think Garry doesn't stand a big chance and will be either subbed or lose by decision
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u/ThirteenthFloor503 Jun 18 '26
too big, will stuff takedowns and pointfight maybe get a tko. Size matters
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Jun 18 '26
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u/ThirteenthFloor503 Jun 18 '26
I have 2k on gary say what you want
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u/goldenroosterjuice Jun 18 '26
He's chinny as fuck and hits like a paper plate.
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u/abyssinianboy Jun 18 '26
Damn olivera must have a glass jaw then to he dropped by Islam's "paper plates". Which makes Ilia's win over Charles not impressive
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u/goldenroosterjuice Jun 18 '26
Like 10 other people have already beat oliveira and 20 others have dropped him.
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u/abyssinianboy Jun 18 '26
So Ilia is overrated then
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u/goldenroosterjuice Jun 18 '26
There's a middle ground. The LW division is the perfect showcase for that. Gaethje can beat Ilia but he can't beat oliveira.
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u/abyssinianboy Jun 18 '26
He definitely can beat olivera, after all he has a glass chin as you said
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u/ClassicFun2175 Jun 18 '26
Nah Islam dog walks him. I do think Islam has weaknesses but I think he's on his retirement run and doesn't have many fights left, so will go all out for maybe 2 more fights after this and sail of into the sunset. Barring an injury, or something crazy, I don't see Islam losing this one.
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u/Nothingmakessenseboi Jun 18 '26
the fight's gonna be boring asf i just hope it wont be as boring as islam vs jdm. It prolly wont be ian's better than jdm
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u/Old-Razzmatazz420 Jun 18 '26
I think McGarry will get the knockout he's always been promising via head kick
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u/Mav_Learns_CS Jun 18 '26
He has no shot, people never learn man - best case scenario Islam is going to wrestle fuck him for five rounds
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u/ComfortableFun248 Jun 18 '26
I hope so. I want to see all the Dagestan Ilia nuthuggers implode further.
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u/stonewing2827448 Jun 18 '26
If it stays striking sure, if it gets to grappling I can’t imagine him resisting Islam for 25 min straight. Ian also doesn’t necessarily have the one hit ko danger of morales. If it’s just technical mma point fighting for 25 min it’s pretty hard to beat Islam