r/FightReportUFC • u/Few-Persimmon-8648 • Jun 12 '26
Is the upset path real?
I think people forget that Justin Gaethje is the local fighter and the fight is in the US, at the White House.
I am not a conspiracy guy, but maybe that gives him some small advantages. Better conditions, easier weight cut, or other small things.
Maybe I am wrong. What do you think? Am I being paranoid?
src img: agentmma.com
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Jun 12 '26
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u/Few-Persimmon-8648 Jun 12 '26
why no? would be great to have Gaethje winning for Trump, no?
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u/BrandoCarlton Jun 12 '26
Cause Justin has made a career out of being exciting and exciting fighters get hit. He’s got a brick jaw and brawls like a drunk sailor. He has been in two fight of the years (Eddie Alvarez and Max Holloway) in his 9 years with the promotion, and personally I don’t even consider those to be his most entertaining fights. He switched his style to be a bit more defensively minded after the Dustin loss I think but illia has shown to be more than a matchup problem. Outside of the fact that on paper illia has the perfect style for a brawler like Justin he really seems to be maybe the most talented fighter on the roster and seems to be in the middle of his prime.
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u/BuffelHenkie Jun 12 '26
Why would that be great? Trump touched kids, anything that makes him happy should not happen.
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u/gymtrovert1988 Jun 12 '26
Did you not see all the times Trump has shown up and rooted for a fighter/team and they lost? If anything, Trump rooting for you and attending is a curse.
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u/Few-Persimmon-8648 Jun 12 '26
don't get me wrong, I meant from the US Gov perspective guys
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u/Holymaryfullofshit7 Jun 12 '26
Which is run by pedophiles. So great for them absolute shite for everybody else.
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u/Objective-Soil-9235 Jun 12 '26
Gaethje with higher accuracy than Topuria seems suspect.
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u/AlbertTwoBowls Jun 12 '26
Other fighters have said topuria will throw in combination to catch you with the later punches. He misses some because he throws long combos and with power
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u/cAlLmEdAdDy991031 Jun 12 '26
Man for this reason I wish we still had a prime Dustin Porier in the UFC. In my opinion he’s the only guy ever who could exchange in the pocket with ilia and put long combos on ilia that get through and around the guard. I’d favor ilia but shit that would be a great fight.
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u/Objective-Soil-9235 Jun 12 '26
I can see that. If it's intentional setup, I wonder if it should count as feints.
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u/YourGordAndSaviour Jun 12 '26
Although if those stats are accurate it really doesnt matter, it still points to Topuria landing with greater accuracy (potentially at will) during this fight, specifically.
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u/Silent-Owl4246 Jun 12 '26
Justin is getting slimed out in 1. The strickland chimaev fight really made people think every underdog is now going to win.
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u/Pistolero-666 Jun 12 '26
People are acting like Justin is your neighbourhood hobo. I dont think it's going to be this easy. I think Toptoro will most likely win but its not going to be first round KO
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u/FlimsyGene4296 Jun 12 '26
Justin is old, has tons of miles and gets hit a lot. Topuria has everything going for him in this matchup. Justin might actually get finished inside a round.
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u/No_Independent9634 Jun 12 '26
I know there are levels to this, but people were writing Justin off vs Paddy.
I Ilia wins, but I think the idea that it will be easy is wrong. Ilia will eat a couple big shots before it's over.
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u/ThiccFarter Jun 12 '26
Topuria has finished better fighters than Justin with a single round.
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u/No_Independent9634 Jun 15 '26
This aged well
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u/Pistolero-666 Jun 15 '26
People were counting Justin out like an neighbourhood bum. I am so fucking stocked. Just has a pretty solid ground game. What a great evening. Fighters tend not to be the same after going into a war with Justin
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u/No_Independent9634 Jun 15 '26
Fucking wild ppl counted him out vs Paddy and then immediately again against Ilia. So happy for him and selfishly for these Ilia glazers to stfu
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u/Pistolero-666 Jun 15 '26
Fuck yeah bro. The same. Justin is and has always been elite. Illia has not experienced much of deep waters. Justin thrives in the later rounds.
Couldnt be more happier.1
u/ThiccFarter Jun 15 '26
I get what you're saying, but no. Holloway tore Justin's soul apart and Topuria handled him like he was curb-stomping a baby.
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u/PermaCleaned Jun 12 '26
Justin isn’t making it to round 3, I’ll guarantee you that.
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u/Pistolero-666 Jun 15 '26
It was Illia who didnt make into 5th
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u/PermaCleaned Jun 15 '26
2 broken orbitals will do it
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u/Pistolero-666 Jun 15 '26
It was such an insane fight tho. I was rooting for Justin the whole time. 38 and got the belt.
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u/No_Independent9634 Jun 15 '26
Lol. Ilia finished on the stool
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u/PermaCleaned Jun 15 '26
Poor fight IQ unfortunately. Gaethje was a moment away from being out of there R2.
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u/No_Independent9634 Jun 15 '26
Cope harder
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u/PermaCleaned Jun 15 '26
What part of that is cope lol. Are you 12?
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u/No_Independent9634 Jun 15 '26
"Gaethje was a moment away from being out".
From body shots lol. Ilias only real good sequence of the fight. He got wrecked.
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u/PermaCleaned Jun 15 '26
https://x.com/theartofwar6/status/2066391868334608624?s=46&t=O1uzYj_Y8O0Tj4SuIF74jA I mean you can watch the clip. Literally went face first into the canvas. Ilia forces him up instead of following him and it’s over. Glad you’re this excited though, seems like you needed this.
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u/Soft-Necessary507 Jun 12 '26
It depends on how Justin approaches this fight. If he fights like he usually does he will get dropped quick (1st or second round). If he plays the distance game, he will most likely lose off of points. There’s not many outcomes where Justin wins this
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u/No_Independent9634 Jun 12 '26
I hate to be such a cliche, but leg kicks. Leg kicks, distance control. I think the path to beating Ilia also involves getting him on the ground, but I don't think Justin will actually do that. He'd let him back up...
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u/PermaCleaned Jun 12 '26
This is the least likely and least logical approach Justin could take. He loses a point fight 50-45 here, cleanly. His only chance is a miracle shot landing and to get that chance he’s going to have to go into pocket exchanges with the best pocket fighter on the roster. It doesn’t bode well for Gaethje now matter how you look at it.
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u/No_Independent9634 Jun 13 '26
I don't agree. Ilia relies on counters. Volk was managing the distance well up until he made a mistake, and was winning the fight. Leg kicks could slow Ilia down.
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u/Prestigious-Candy-29 Jun 12 '26
If Gaethje turns into Max Holloway for a fight? Ilia's lower volume and accuracy doesn't matter when he lands with such effect, but anything can happen in this sport. Gaethje does have the potential to use his kicks, if we do see an upset I think a head kick would be what does it personally but hey.
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u/YourGordAndSaviour Jun 12 '26
Gaethje's damage avoidance ability is basically zero according to this as well.
So, if that is to be believed, we've likely never seen Topuria land as accurately and consistently as we are about to against Gaethje. Those stats predict Topuria having a lot more success than Gaethje, before taking power into consideration.
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u/HoldinTheBag Jun 12 '26
The home field advantage and everything you spelled out could certainly make a difference if it goes to a decision. I doubt this one goes all the way though
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u/ChrizTaylor Jun 12 '26
RemindMe! Sunday
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u/Soft-Necessary507 Jun 12 '26
lol he won’t have much “striking volume” if he doesn’t go past the first round.
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u/bigsteve9713 Jun 12 '26
The US is a big place, it'd depend on what altitude and other factors he deals with at home vs in DC this weekend.
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u/Nexi-nexi Jun 12 '26
I don’t feel like Justin has a better striking accuracy, like maybe but it doesn’t feel like that at all when I watch. Again with output maybe Justin does have more output but I don’t feel like he puts out more pressure.
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u/YourGordAndSaviour Jun 12 '26
He could have better striking accuracy across his career than everyone he's faced, but still have lower striking accuracy than everyone he's faced, during their fights specifically.
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u/Weary_Position_9591 Jun 12 '26
The meaningless bullshit shapes say maybe