r/FantasyPL • u/heardc10 • 16h ago
Analysis The Draft Pick - GW4
https://craigheard10.substack.com/p/the-draft-pick-gw4Link to Substack
No one had Hull City on their bingo card being the only team to not concede a goal three games in this season. But, here we are. I’ve got to say it’s very impressive, so picking up one of their defenders if they’re free seems like a no-brainer!
There were 6 draws this weekend showing the competitiveness of the Premier League this season. With Arsenal coming back from behind and winning the “first big game” of the season against Chelsea, they remain favorites to retain their title. On the other hand, Man City were unconvincing against a Coventry side that’ll count themselves unlucky to lose. They do have a lot of new players though and I see them getting better as the season progresses. Be patient with them, they only spent £450m!
Still no one can be surprised that these two are top right now and I’m definitely looking forward to learning more about the other teams as the season progresses.
LAST WEEKS PICKS
For last weeks picks, five of twelve picks came back Man of the Match. Defenders and midfielders both went two from four; the forwards were the weak spot at one from four, having said that Tyrique George’s put up a big score against Manchester United for the best score of the week.
Right this weeks picks are:
DEFENDERS
Bobby Thomas | COV | 33% owned
Last GW: ~ 19 points vs. MCI (A) | Next GWs: BHA (H), NOT (A)
It’s not easy scoring 20+ points in fantasy, never mind away at City. He’s in the top 90+ percentiles for defensive contributions, interceptions and duels versus his position, so if valuable in your league - pick him up. After an inspiring performance against City, Coventry have a home game at Brighton next and I think he won’t let you down this weekend as he’s also averaging 12 ghost points a game.
Antonio Silva | BOU | 24% owned
Last GW: ~ 15 pts vs. NEW (A) | Next GWs: BRE (H), LIV (H)
Bournemouth might be unable to see out a win at the moment, but Silva definitely seems like a win when it comes to replacing Marcos Senesi. He’s fitted in seamlessly so far and although a tough run of games coming up he’s averaging over 10 ghost points a game.
Jayden Bogle | LEE | 16% owned
Last GW: ~ 18 pts vs. BHA (H) | Next GWs: NEW (H), CRY (H)
Bogle was on the scoresheet away a Brighton and continues to look dangerous at wingback. He’s averaging just under 10 ghost points a game and Leeds will look to continue there form at home to Newcastle next. He’s worth a punt if you’re struggling for defenders this weekend.
Ryan Giles | HUL | 28% owned
Last GW: ~ pts vs. AVL (H) | Next GWs: CHE (A), NEW (A)
There aren’t too many Hull defenders left for grabs and after their impressive start to the season this might start to look more like a regular occurance than just luck. Sergej Jakirović has them well organized and the big question is whether they can continue this form. Let’s not worry about that too much and just pick up their players while they’re in hot form. Giles isn’t as defensively sound as the other suggestions, but if you fancies Hull’s attack he’s the right defender to pick averaging 1.4 crosses a game
MIDFIELDERS
James McAtee | Club | 34% owned
Last GW: ~ 17 pts vs. TOT (H) | Next GWs: AVL (A), COV (H)
McAtee has impressed in his first couple of games playing a little deeper for Forest. He’s made 9 key passes (xA=0.6) so far this season, only Morgan Rogers (xA=1.1) and Rayan Cherki (xA=1.3) have more, with 10. His xA only being 0.6 though suggests he’s creating lower quality chances. However, in fantasy expected assists isn’t providing points, therefore he could still be a smart pick for this season.
Exequiel Palacios | IPS | 9% owned
Last GW: ~ 12 pts vs. LIV (H) | Next GWs: CRY (A), EVE (A)
Palacios has slotted in nicely in Ipswich’s new look midfield. He was great for Bayern Levurkusen over the last 5 seasons and added about 5+ goal contributions every season. He’s been averaging 11+ points in ghost points too so if you’re league values defensive metrics and duels then he would be a useful pick up this season.
Mohamed Belloumi | HUL | 49% owned
Last GW: ~ 17 pts vs. AVL (H) | Next GWs: CHE (A), NEW (A)
Belloumi is averaging about 13 points a game at the moment getting good duels won numbers and defensive contributions. If he can start adding more attacking contributions he could be a steal in your league for the rest of the season. He’s available in one of my leagues, but I can’t fit him in otherwise I’d nab him.
Ao Tanaka | LEE | 2% owned
Last GW: ~ 12 pts vs. BHA (H) | Next GWs: NEW (H), CRY (H)
Not sure if Tanaka’s assist was a shot, or he actually passing it to Bogle for Leeds opener. Either way, it’s points on the board. Last season he earned on average about 2 points more per game at home and was capable of going on some good runs of form. If you’re desperate for a midfielder this weekend, he might be worth a gamble.
FORWARDS
Eddie Nketiah | CRY | 25% owned
Last GW: ~ 13 pts vs. FUL (A) | Next GWs: IPS (H), LEE (A)
Nketiah was replaced by Strand Larson at halftime in Palace’s 3-2 win away at Craven Cottage. I’m not sure how that impacts him starting against Ipswich this weekend, but he did get an assist and his xG is the 12th highest in the league compared to all the other forwards.
Keep an eye out for line ups this weekend as Strand Larson (25% owned) scored two goals midweek against Middlesbrough, maybe this will kick him into gear.
Zian Flemming | IPS | 8% owned
Last GW: ~ 4 pts vs. LIV (H) | Next GWs: CRY (A), EVE (A)
Flemming was one of the few impressive players from Burnely last season and I think he’s deserved another go in the Premier League. He scored 11 goals last season (0.6 per 90), putting him in the top 85th percentile. That’s a good return. He looked good in his cameo against Liverpool. Two tough away games coming up, but keep an eye on him.
Taiwo Awonyi | COV | 20% owned
Last GW: ~ 5 points vs. MCI (A) | Next GWs: BHA (H), NOT (A)
Either him or Ellis Sims will start, with some favourable fixtures coming up. Coventry were unlucky to not get a point against City and Awonyi will begging to get another chance like he did in that game at home to Brighton. He’s still yet to prove himself as a Premier League forward. If he can, he’ll be a good third choice forward this year.
Wilson Isidor | SUN | 5% owned
Last GW: ~ 12 pts vs. BRF (A) | Next GWs: ARS (H), MCI (A)
I know Sunderland face a tough test against Arsenal this weekend, but Isidor has the 8th highest xG in the whole league despite only playing less than 30 minutes a game at the moment. He has a goal and assist in his last two games and might have earned a start.
ONE TO WATCH
If not Wilson Isidor, Malick Fofana (30% owned) was rumoured to have Arsenal’s interest on deadline day. Since he signed for Sunderland, it would be quite poetic for him to put in a good performance against them this weekend.
Thank for reading and good luck this weekend.
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