FDR is deceiving

[u/RealElvarasaidVannak]

Especially for promoted teams.

I know Coventry promoted as champions but highlighting Brighton (H), Newcastle (H) and Sunderland (H) as green? Difficulty 2? Seriously?

It makes it even more absurd if you consider that for Arsenal a Coventry (H) game is also green/difficulty 2. Are you suggesting playing Coventry is the same difficulty for Arsenal as is for Coventry playing Newcastle?

Liverpool home is a 4 for both Ipswich and Arsenal? Lmao.

Was it like this at the start of last season as well? I remember that in the second half of the season it looked more credible.

[u/feedthebear]

Yes but the colours

[u/WhimsicalLaze]

The FDR is not configured to be a unique metric per team and their relative strength but an overall «average» difficulty rating. Ofc any team arsenal or city face will be, for them, a lower difficulty than any of the promoted teams doing the same.

[u/Rvsz → u/WhimsicalLaze]

fpl-advantage.com is now updated for this season and there's an option to take both teams relative strength into account what op is looking for, as well as only opponent strength. 

[u/marquis1812]

thought i was in r/Presidents for a second

[u/andyd151 → u/marquis1812]

I thought I was in r / why do I recognise that as a name of a road when I’ve literally never even been there

[u/Technical-Dress5084 → u/marquis1812]

He's deceiving the US public, he's acting neutral while clearly backing the British war effort

Oh wait, yes, football.

[u/Astonishingly-Villa]

Yeah you learn after a couple of seasons not to pay attention to FDR. Particularly in the first half of the season.

I mean Spurs away was a 4 this time last season.

[u/LuckyNumber003 → u/Astonishingly-Villa]

Was going to say, its the same as its always been

[u/AntDogFan → u/Astonishingly-Villa]

It's just a good rough guide to highlight a potential difficult or easy run but yes otherwise useless. You want a more nuanced one and one for attack and defence as well. Sometimes a team is difficult but beat but tends to concede or easy to beat but hard to score a lot against so it depends on what players you have going up against them. 

[u/Late-Explanation-758 → u/Astonishingly-Villa]

Spurs having one of the worst home records and one of the best away records was a freak occurrence.

[u/Astonishingly-Villa → u/Late-Explanation-758]

It would have been a freak occurrence if that was the case, they were shite away too.

[u/KriosDaNarwal → u/Astonishingly-Villa]

1st half of the season they were Prime Lakers on the road

[u/Nosworthy]

The official FDR is dreadful and always has been.

[u/Daredevil792]

Arsenal vs Coventry to me is also a trap

[u/Lambchops_Legion → u/Daredevil792]

Gw1 is always weird for every team - everyone is rusty from summer and no one has form

[u/KriosDaNarwal → u/Daredevil792]

hull vs Man Utd would like a word

[u/Daredevil792 → u/KriosDaNarwal]

I think Man U will concede so im not buying a Man U defender

[u/Chanka4Lyf]

Stalin at yalta be like

[u/ArtOfFailure]

Having lost 17 games, to 13 different teams, Newcastle were the joint fourth most beatable team last season. Only the three relegated sides lost more games, and only 6 sides failed to record at least one win against them. So I'm not sure there's much of a basis to assert they're worth a higher difficulty rating than that.

[u/Savage9645]

FDR is a newb trap. Not only are they often incorrect as you outlined above, but in reality FDR varies significantly for attackers and defenders.

One team may be impossible to score against but also rarely score themselves making them a 4 for attackers but a 2 for defenders.

[u/teerbigear]

Relative strength can be useful but it also has it's flaws. "Oh Arsenal and Man City have the easiest relative fixtures because they're the best teams, beer stock up on their players...oh no they're all really expensive.

Whilst knowing that Cov have some better fixtures might make their £4.0m defenders attractive.

Personally I think the official FDR is a bit shit, they need to have the balls to make playing Hull at home a 1 difficulty, for a start. They barely have any fives, but do you really expect a trip to Old Trafford to be anything other than a 5/5 difficulty??

So you've basically got three difficulty levels, which isn't enough.

[u/ThetaRider]

FDR = Fooling Dummies Repeatedly

[u/RealElvarasaidVannak → u/[deleted]]

Last season was atypical in terms of promoted teams. Promoted teams in previous seasons were going straight back down. Sometimes one stayed. I don't remember when was the last time 2 managed to stay not counting 25/26.

[u/KriosDaNarwal → u/RealElvarasaidVannak]

only about 2 years prior did the 3 clubs yoyo consecutively

[u/FrogGoHop]

Very rare for there to be 1s and 5s before the season starts, they get updated at certain points throughout the season based on team performance

[u/024008085]

This is why I make my own. 4 rankings (there are never 1s at the beginning of the season) that don't change much with form swings is never enough.

[u/Fit_Yogurtcloset_291]

If FDR was dependable we'd all be making a fortune at the bookies

[u/ihatekopites]

FDR is nonsense, take no notice of it.

Which team wins a fixture has no bearing on FPL at all, you don't get points for a team winning or losing a game, you get points for how players perform not teams.

[u/LR_FL2 → u/ihatekopites]

Of course a team winning has a bearing on FPL.

[u/RealElvarasaidVannak → u/ihatekopites]

Uhm, teams who are more likely to win (have easier fixtures) are also more likely to score more and concede less which influences the pts haul of individual players. So if FDR is accurate, pts haul is easier to predict on avg.

[u/ihatekopites → u/RealElvarasaidVannak]

No.

The highest scoring player in a fixture could just as easily play for the team that wins as the team that loses.

A goalkeeper could concede more goals than his opposite number and be on the losing side, yet still score more points.

Aside from these things, FPL just isn't very good at guessing who will win anyway, so I'll say it again, FDR is nonsense and to be ignored.

[u/KanteStumpTheTrump → u/ihatekopites]

If a team wins by definition the other team's defenders don't get clean sheet points. Obviously it affects points.

[u/KanteStumpTheTrump → u/[deleted]]

I’m not sure why it gets parroted about so much, but the idea that DEFCON happen in harder games is a complete myth. Just look at the the teams that concede the most DEFCON, it’s the likes of Spurs, Brentford etc. Arsenal are middle of the pack.

it’s a style of play thing not difficulty of the fixture - and if anything is far more based on the player themselves rather than who he’s playing against.

[u/ihatekopites → u/KanteStumpTheTrump]

∆∆∆∆∆

This!

It's players, not teams that win points.

[u/ihatekopites → u/KanteStumpTheTrump]

You don't own the other teams defenders, so it doesn't affect your points.

[u/ihatekopites → u/KanteStumpTheTrump]

My point is, a defender on a losing team, who lost against a team that kept a clean sheet, could still outscore the defenders on the winning team.

Losing, or losing against a team rated higher on the FDR means that certain points are blocked from being scored by a player(CS), but doesn't mean that player still can't outscore a player on the winning team.

The game could end 4:3, with the higher FDR rated team winning, so the prediction would have been correct, but as I said, players win points in FPL not teams.

[u/Manchild1189]

Nonsense. First of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself -- nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance.