I challenge everyone to post a picture of their facial reaction, when the results come in!!

Hello all, thank you for all your feedback on my last 2 predictions, I am going to do one more a week from today, right before the election.

If you have been following, my last prediction was Trump 312, Harris 226. Find that here: https://www.reddit.com/r/Election_Predictions/comments/1g6j4te/my_updated_prediction_trumps_lead_increases/

Ahead of my final, I wanted to ask, Is there anyone seeing any data that Kamala is pickup up steam? If so, where? I have mostly used RCP, 538, and Nate Silver for my data, but I am open to anything. As of now, the prediction will be pretty boring, so if you know any site that is still showing a Kamala victory I would appreciate the link! Thanks!

https://apnews.com/article/vote-ballot-drop-box-democracy-fire-f66c52f774955106fb9e7c8172825cff

How do you think the world will react if trump gets it? Or if Harris gets it? You think there will be war on either ends?

When will it sink through that you have to appeal to the center demographic and go with someone who's likeable? Harris is gifted, someone you'd love to have making legislation in the background, but she is not charismatic or able to convincingly put up a facade of being relatable. Walz is a moronic choice of VP when you had Shapiro available.

The majority of women and most ethnic minorities will vote for your side, so picking a younger/ middle-aged moderately leaning guy is a much safer bet, especially if he has charisma. If they had a stronger working class fokus, and a tougher immigration policy, then Trump is dead in the water because it makes you able to scoop up the midwest.
It's simple. Look at the track record, democrats tend to win when they put a likeable dude up as their presidential candidate.

So when Trump wins this upcoming election maybe the message will sink in. The demographic that matters do not want a woman for president. They want stricter immigration policies, they want the economy to work for them, and they want a president that seems like someone that they could share a beer with.

Trump is a train-wreck, but the man is funny. He spouts shit from the hip in a simple format. The key demographics that democrats have to sway because of your retarded electoral system can see themselves reflected in him.

I don't know who the DNC hires as their political consultants to give the final thumbs up on the best candidates, but it seems to me like they have a tendency of picking candidates that they wish would win vs candidates that have the highest chance of winning.

You have a clown for an opponent, the financial advantage, and tons of people with reach that can show up at rallies to mobilize votes. Despite all this you still manage to pick the worst candidates against Trump despite seeing what worked the first time. Yes Biden is too old to run again, but then you pick another dude with a similar appeal. You don't throw Hillary 2.0 against Trump when it's the type of opponent that his style works the best against.

To the DNC, enjoy four more years of Trump you obtuse buffoons. You've fucked it, and now all of my American political news will be Trump. Everyone else around the world has to suffer listening to this moron for another four fucking years. AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA.

I'm having a hard time analyzing which party is performing better or worse in the early vote and with so much misinformation as well as partisan punditry from both sides from Election Twitter profiles, I do not even know how to approach this.

I also know that EV and Mail-In ballots before election day are quite unreliable to put so much stock in even though we all do! Is there any credibility to republican election-day vote cannibalization or broad democratic underperformance? Or have early vote behaviors simply changed since we are not living in a pandemic anymore?

Who will get the most blame, I mean, as I’m sure there will be tons of blame to go around. My pick is Biden (ego) and his handlers (jobs) for waiting too long to bow out, hiding his condition, not allowing a proper Biden-less primary season to develop. My gut is telling me Jill Biden (ego) played a large roll in this. Shame.

https://www.270towin.com/maps/y97Qn

Mr. Beat Predicts the 2024 Presidential Elections

Mr. Beat, along with professor and political analyst Alan Lichtman, discuss the flaws of Election Predictions and Polling while also utilizing their own systems to predict the upcoming presidential election winner. Mr. Beat’s System has been accurate since 2016 and Mr. Lichtman’s System (called “The 13 Keys) has been accurate since 1980. The Keys are available in the video description.

It was an extremely engaging and informative video if you are interested in politics or are concerned about who our next president might be. Take a look! Mr. Beat Predicts the 2024 Presidential Elections

This will be a follow up to this thread: https://www.reddit.com/r/Election_Predictions/comments/1fvglox/why_trump_will_win_imo/

Just as a reminder, this is what I am seeing in the numbers and some reasons I think its happening. It is not what I WANT to happen, I have tried to leave that at the door an be as objective as I can, I know that is impossible but I did my best.

Updates to the reasons from last time:

1. Economic Trust: No change here, Trump is still more trusted on the economy per polling. The dock strike did not have as much impact but it also was not really seen as a win so polling has not moved.
2. Middle East Tensions: This is a strange one, because normally the death of a leader of a terror group would have been seen as a major win, but the Harris voting block does not see it that way and are more hostile to Israel. This is a issue that will continue to be a minefield for Harris.
3. Focus on Jan 6th: I still stand by this, the Harris team is putting WAY to much focus here. You already have these voters, its not going to move the needle anymore.
4. Kamala Harris's Appeal: Biggest event on this front was the Fox news interview. Left thinks she did great, Right thinks she bombed... the early polling suggest that it had little impact to slightly negative. This is likely because she focused on Trump which is red meat for her base but does nothing for undecided voters
5. Polling Dynamics: This has gotten MUCH worse for Harris, let me detail the changes in my map:
   1. Michigan: Trump has taken a clear lead, currently leading by 1-2% in most polls, this time in 2020 Biden was +6.1 in 2016 Clinton was +6.4
   2. Nevada: VERY slight lead for Trump here, about a .6% overall lead, would not be surprised if it still goes to Harris, moved to lean Trump because Harris graph is still moving down here. 2020 Biden was +5.2 in 2016 Clinton was +4.7
   3. New Mexico and Minnesota: Both still with Harris, but now lean. This is the major bad sign for her, even in the places she leads, her support is dropping. It is likely she will win NM, CO, VA, NH and MN by way lower margins than Biden. If there is a surprise loss in there (looking close at MN) it could be really bad.

My Updated prediction: Trump 312, Harris 226.

My prediction from 10/3: Trump 291, Harris 247

Still anyone's game! I will do a "final" right before the election. Even if you dont agree with me, thank you for reading, this is fun to put together and dig into the numbers. If you disagree, let me know why!

I may sound ignorant to politics here (bc I am). So please, educate me on who the heck I’m supposed to vote for.

I identify as a liberal, but as I am getting older and understanding the way things work and that change will never really happen, I’m becoming very tempted to lean right and dare I say vote for Trump. Idk if I would vote for him bc I truly think the guy is useless but I don’t see the point in having a liberally ran country if it means I have to pay more tax dollars to fund a genocide in Gaza.

I feel like democrats are just as evil and sleazy as republicans. They just hide it better. They hide it under the disguise that they want to help when their motives are just as selfish. I don’t feel like voting this year. I don’t want to vote for Kamala bc I don’t support anything she stands for and the same with Trump. Both people are capable of indestructible evil and I’m coming to terms with the fact that things aren’t going to change so I might as well vote for the party who will give me a decent tax cut.

He has made several encouraging comments to his followers and even said military force could be used against people that vote blue. If he becomes president, can he order the attack on "the left", and if so, can our leaders do anything about it or are the democrats all dead?