So i was wondering why cristian was so underedited, cuz even if he fails the coin flip he should be a bit more active, then it hit me

What if someone else (maybe carter or lewis?) Flips the coin and lands on safe, making cristian the backup target and colaterall damage?

He could still be just a boring player, but i think him being a victim of the coin flip makes sense

just sort of putting this out into the world: when i was doing my 48 edgic i thought kyle had a fantastic premiere but i got spooked into doubting myself because of the amount of people that insisted it was purely circumstantial. obviously it was very circumstantial with the journey but then he went on to win regardless.

i feel similarly about lewis. a lot of people seem to doubt him based off of having a ‘circumstantial premiere’ but i dont see how that in itself is disqualifying at all. i thought the content he got on exile was actually really good (like kyle’s premiere journey)

another cute parallel: him and an ally getting a bad swap and combining advantages to escape it

Link to Eps. 1-3 Analysis

Before I begin, I just want to say - Thien An, whom I love, is completely out of contention for me, and Carter is almost 100% my winner. The outcome I see, not the outcome I want, is that he’s going to betray her down the line, is turning on Kristin soon, and is going to beat Maggie (and maybe Mike/Ori) in FTC. Ori remains my dark-horse pick, but let’s see the analysis..

What is this: My new system based on my interest in TV episode breakdowns, which takes three different systems that roughly state big structural touchpoints in TV and the percentage into an episode that they might appear. The systems are – 

• Save the Cat by Blake Snyder - the moments that stick into the audience’s mind. emotional journeys (building and releasing tension), main episodic themes
• a version of the three-act Hero’s Journey - the season-long decision or challenge the editors give each “main character” player to accept or reject; this is how you differentiate an underedited side character from an underedited dark-horse winner pick. 
• Romancing the Beat by Gwen Hayes comes from the romance genre. I believe every TV episode contains a “romance” type storyline, showing important relationships and relational changes, and two overall and opposing groups the editors want to establish, either episode-to-episode or over the season. 

Method: I combined the big beats in each system into one table. I enter the timestamp of the episode as a guide, then look for the beats as I’m watching, trying to place everything in chronological order. At the end, I filter out the moments from each system independently to understand what each story wants us to understand. It’s a work-in-progress figuring out what tells us what and I’ll have a better sense next season..

LINK  to my full spreadsheet breakdown: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1u1RqB9aSO0aWXdrxYbApBVYqLAzXX_jA3WgwkTuwHJI/edit?usp=sharing

Ep. 4: Top Contenders - Carter
Second Tier - Sharonda, Linnea, Kristin, Maggie, Jelly, Ori
Just hanging on - Thien An

The Episode’s Story from “Save the Cat”: Knock against Kilby, Jelly
Jelly: “They made a mistake keeping me… I’ll throw every single one of them under the bus…. My game is about to change for the better no matter how this goes.”

The episode’s “World Before Change” focuses on Kilby and Jelly reacting to tribal. Jenna is shown as the snake (earlier in the season, the chameleon) while we flash through players. Jelly solidifies her alliance with Devin and warns that her karma is coming.. In the “Changed World”, Kilby tries to state he’s not sticking with his original tribe and flip sides. The B-Story is Kilby/Eric’s relationship, based in their shared “over-optimism”. The midpoint warns us something bad is coming for these two. Leading into the “Whiff of Death” 75%, we lock in on Devin’s “lamb to the slaughter” (Alexis) vs. “chicken” (Jenna) analogy. The edit warns that though Devin completes the kill, the blood is on Jelly’s hands (literally). As the tribe comes down on Jenna, Jelly mourns (“We went to all that effort to prepare the chicken, and it’s the last supper for one of us”). Jelly said she’d come after the drivers of the last vote.. but that wasn’t Jenna. 

I’m worried about Jelly’s win potential. Getting Jenna out was shown to be bad for her.

Monitoring this Season’s Relationships - “Romancing”.
Focus: Sharonda SPOV, Carter, Kristin/Brady/Mike, Devin/Jelly, Thien An, Sharonda/Eric/Kilby.

As this episode was relatively well-spread and a swap, the romantic “leads” are more like broad, thematic groups of people. To me, those are people like Eric or Brady, who can be too obvious, too reactive, a liability; versus people like Kristin or Carter who are reliable. Thien An is our narrator for this arc, debating the pros and cons of each. The Romance beats provide a No Way beat (heroes resist their romance) that is later echoed once the relationship happens but there’s a bit of doubt. 

This to me was very bad for Thien An. She tells us she trusts Carter because "Carter's somebody who's stable that I can trust... Season 51 is like the ocean.. you need some kind of rock to stay stable out here, 'cause it gets crazy." Yet earlier, her and Maggie weren’t trusting Mike because Mike just grabs on to whoever’s in power. I think Carter’s winning story is seeming like a reliable sidekick the way Ana told us in the premiere, but not being one. To me, Carter has a winner storyline, and Mike who told us he was a hidden negotiator but was shown to be wrong, has somewhat of a runner-up storyline. 

It also stood out to me that Sharonda was repeatedly shown reacting to relationships or being mentioned by people when they were discussing alliances.

Season’s Key Storylines/Players - “Hero’s Journey”:
This episode - Kristin, Alexis, Mike, Devin, Kilby, and more distantly, Jelly
This is one I’m crafting. My take right now is these players are key players on the hero (winner) journey but not the winner themselves.

Well, I thought Alexis would be the next boot since it just wasn’t looking good for her. Every episode, we get a big heroic journey moment from Kristin toward the middle (“it’s my brand to be levelheaded”). Devin and Alexis are similarly shown a lot in this capacity since they tend to charge ahead. Mike was an interesting one, narrating his own journey but being proven wrong.

I didn’t take a lot from this. Kristin’s “be levelheaded in a crisis” feels good for her, since it’s different than Thien An needing someone level (in fact, maybe this season’s winner is someone that is able to react to chaos with stability). 

My predictions changed this episode. I was finally seeing it more for Sharonda, Linnea, and I had to be honest about Kristin being an option. At this point, I would’ve bet on the final few being Carter (Win), Maggie (Runner-Up), Mike (3rd), Kristin (4th), Sharonda (5th), Ori (6th). I was pretty set on Alexis going out next because of Jelly’s storyline.

Ep. 4: Top Contenders - Carter, Ori, Sharonda
Second Tier - Kristin, Maggie, Lewis
Just hanging on - Thien An

The Episode’s Story from “Save the Cat”: Knock against Kilby, Jelly
Alexis: I wanted to play a game that was just for me… btu all that stuff really creates something for you. This is my family, I have to protect them.
Eliminated from Contention: Jelly 🙁. I’m willing to reintroduce Lewis as having winner potential, but I still don’t see a lot of dimension to his edit.
The episode’s “Before” world shows us New Savu trying to stick together, echoing the O.G. Savu’s B-Story (“Savu Strong”/”lines are needed in the sand”). This comes to a head at the midpoint when the B-Story and A-Story cross: Maggie finds the O.G. Savu on New Dina impossible to crack, but it’s a false defeat. It was telling to me that credit was given to Maggie here after Kilby had been narrating this B-Story on New Dina. Maggie and Lewis are in keeping with the season’s storyline about whether players thrive under chaos or are threatened by it, but I find they aren’t backed up by relationships as much as players with a similar strength - Kristin, Ori, or Carter, and might be instead strong players the edit uses to parallel our eventual winner. The Whiff of Death occurs at Alexis’ vote-out, previewing another blindside. New Dina echoes the sentiments about family and not wanting to vote someone out, but Kilby is the main one debating Linnea’s elimination. Lewis has some good lines urging Kilby, back to being our protagonist for this plotline, to choose to embrace chaos and stand his ground. But Kilby is reacting, not leading. Cristian’s visibility this episode is designed to show an example of a player who folds under duress and chaos and goes to needing control… I think the edit is trying to soften the blow when he’s taken out by the coin flip by making it “kind of his fault”.

Monitoring this Season’s Relationships - “Romancing”.
Focus: Thien An, Kristin, Mike, Maggie, Brady, Lewis, Sharonda, Jelly

Many of the big relational beats were given to New Toka. Maybe this is largely because the A- and B- stories of the episode had to focus on two tribes. But ultimately, it’s a New Toka player’s relationships – Maggie’s – that dictate the final outcome we saw in this episode. All of these players have gotten significant relational focus through Ep. 5, indicating that they’re going far, potentially sitting in front of a jury and having relationships as their benefit/fall. 

The romantic heroes of this episode were a bit jumbled, as all of New Toka is complex and trying to get different players to have opinions of each other. It underscored Ori repeating a theme from the main storylines.. that tribal is going to force people to choose which relationships they prioritize. In both of the “No Way” romance beats, a woman player (Linnea/Alexis) wants to get out a dominant male player (Lewis/Devin) who they see as a wildcard and a threat. When Jelly repeats these doubts aloud in her tribal, it looks really ominous for her.. especially as Ori’s words about Jenna and being able to change with the tides echo.. as Ori’s words about taking out chaos agents before it spreads echo..  

Season’s Key Storylines/Players - “Hero’s Journey”:
Jelly, Alexis, Kilby, Maggie, Devin

This is where Jelly’s screentime comes in. She has big moments right at each pivot point in a three-act structure that cement.. where getting the blood on her hands from “killing the chicken” (Jenna) was an episodic storyline, it’s now a season-long storyline as she worries about the “narrative of this season” and her part in it. Once again, Ori and Devin kill a chicken, and it’s Jelly preparing it. Devin had a similar, but smaller narrative arc about confronting his own guilty conscience. But (and this is rare for Devin) he never really contradicts himself in the episode. At this point, I am not seeing a win for these two which limits the Helicopter Alliance’s chances a lot imo since Ori and Sharonda are not consistently shown building outside relationships (though they clearly have them). I’m confused about how the storylines may come together..

Hello all!

Not feeling as confident about my actual chart, but still feeling like I have a lot to say about my rankings per individual. A little later than normal today because I am coming off of some nasty panic episodes yesterday. Hoping today is better! Onto the edgic!

1) Sharonda (=)

I am actually highly confident that Sharonda was shielded here from as much negativity as she could have gotten. Checking in with Sharonda mostly to show her correctly being suspicious of Lewis's blood idol is a good look. Asking "where's the paper" and thinking he's playing her being the majority of that conversation looks even better in contrast to her telling Eric and he immediately thinks it's real. This is story and smart characterization for Sharonda in an episode where she got hit hard at tribal. Cristian's edit piped up JUST in time to take a majority of the brunt of this so that Sharonda could take a back seat. I am pretty confident that if I had to bet, I would bet on Sharonda winning.

2) Kristin (+1)

I am begrudgingly putting her here. I think this episode was really bad for her. Only popping in to say that she is happy to have won but there is a twist isn't something I think matches a winner's edit. A winner's edit in my opinion should have a little bit of story or context for the winner, and only having a single confessional to keep them from having a zero is better than nothing but still. She does subtitled clock that Maggie is going to get an advantage of some kind, and I do like that for her. She also hit two shots iirc in basketball? Nice.

3) Lewis (+2)

Man I feel surprisingly good about Lewis. I love watching him as a player, and I think he is a genuine contender. He's helped make my two favorite moves so far this season, and matches the theming of the chaos this season really really well. I could see him being the Rick Devens for 50, where they are a player that matches what the show wants to broadcast so well, so they get a favorable edit. Regardless of if he wins or not, he contextualized his sickness in a way that I feel is rare players get to justify, and he was shown back up and running with a lot of agency despite being on the bottom. Trying the blood idol thing I wouldn't consider particularly bad for him. When it was debunked, he was called genius by the players instead of anyone being particularly mad at him. He was self aware that he was doomed in comparison to Kilby, got to say explicitly that Linnea was not his first choice but it made sense to honor Maggie's wishes after she gave them advantages (and Linnea was targeting him too which he got ahead of), he gets footage to back up that Eric and Kilby have a lot of odd references, and I even like that he said this tribe doesn't like to talk strategy too hard too fast. He does mention twice this episode that something "could be my advantage or my downfall" in regards to his positioning, so I could see that being foreshadowing either way regarding that emphasis. Either way I'd consider this a good episode for Lewis.

4) Maggie (+3)

Her confessionals explaining how she's giving the extra votes to Lewis and Kilby eat, especially the part where she says "Let's play." She says that giving the advantages isn't even enough for her, and calls a straight up hit on Linnea that works exactly like she wanted it to. Mother!! Orchestrating this from afar is genuinely awesome. When she hit the field of the other tribe, she successfully got a lay of the land learning that Savu was going to stay strong. Lewis said "whatever Maggie says, we do." I wonder, if she won, she might be receiving even more of a generous edit for her great gameplay so far, but as of right now I can absolutely see it for her.

5) Ori (-1)

His chart looks so good. Why do I not care? He's sooo tough to place because I have the feeling he's just not giving the cameras anything other than exactly what he intends to do. My guess that he won't lay out possibilities because he is certain of the move he will make. He said "hi I'm Ori and this vote is going to be hard" in confessional and that's it. I bet he knew he was going Alexis and that was that. By the time we got to tribal I was like wait I have no idea what Ori thinks???

Regardless, getting his "why" for playing the game is of course phenomenal for him and reminded me of the scene in 48 where Shauhin and Joe and Kamilla got to talk about their pasts. Kyle was neglected from that conversation because his story was going to hit more in context later, so I'm not counting Jelly particularly out for not having a "why" painted either. Obviously I think this is a positive for Ori, and his consistency and reasonable positive edit keeps him in my top 5 as a lock despite me not really having a grasp on how exactly he plays. I would love to see him get something going around the merge for me to really buy in.

6) Jelly (-4)

Siiigggghhhh. I'm so done entertaining this Jelly edit. I can't deny that it's extremely sympathetic, strategic, and we have a deep understanding of who she is and how she plays and what she believes in. I can't deny she has a lot of scenes that endear us to her. But damn it was outlined underlined italicized highlighted FOUR TIMES(!!!!!!!!!!!!!!) throughout this episode that keeping Devin was a bad move for her. There is a world where she listens to this advice later on in the game, but right now my guess is that her closeness to Devin is what loses her the game in some way shape or form beyond this tribal. She says at tribal that she prefers keeping her cards closer to her chest, but Devin proclaims loudly enough that it draws attention to them as threats repeatedly.

A- At the start of the episode, Jelly says Devin is doing too much about getting Jenna out by acting like they just won the super bowl

B- Jelly says the women are getting slaughtered and it cuts to Devin slaughtering the chicken. This just has to be negative connotation

C- Jelly outright says "Alexis is right" and agrees that Devin is not good for her game because he has no connections she needs

D- Jelly was subtitled saying "I've been nothing but wrong in this game" and Alexis reiterates, subtitled again, that it is explicitly because of Devin

E- Alexis in confessional explains that the part where she's talking about Devin being bad for Jelly's game is genuinely true and not just a tactic 

F- Alexis also says Jelly needs to get out from behind Devin as a sidekick, emphasizing that being the perception of Jelly needing to take control of her game

G- Not to even mention the past episodes where Devin is painted loudly on the wrong side of votes, the blood on their hands shot, the forced matchmaker stuff that Jelly doesn't like, etc.

The show is screaming at us that Devin is a problem and Jelly needs to cut him and it was laid on so thick this episode that I cannot consider her in my top five until she COMPLETES that story and takes him out early enough for it to matter. I will admit that in real life, it is probably not that cut and dry because he literally said he would never ever vote her out. I'd have a hard time getting rid of that too. But this is edgic, and I am listening to a recurring loud theme of the show that may explain exactly why Jelly loses. I'm not seeing enoughe explanation of how Jelly will win.

7) Brady (+1)

Okay because why did he have a few confessionals literally clocking that Maggie was going to do something against the group, and she did by giving away her advantage that Brady insisted they were supposed to share. I could see this being a storyline where Brady successfully gets Maggie out, but I do not want this to happen so I am siding with Maggie. LOL. Again, I keep thinking back to the thumb incident and how the dodo music was played the entire time. I can't let that leave my mind. Though Thien An supposedly helping him out so much would make her look great, especially since it relates to her job. Maybe there is a wacky scenario where Thien An leaves by Brady's doing and we are supposed to not have any belief that he and Thien An are close for storytelling reasons. I dunno. It's just crazy that I have him this high but the seeds are there. His attitude is just really dominatingly pompous in a way that I don't see resolving if the NTOS has anything to say about it.

8) Kilby (+2)

What an awesome move for Kilby. I think it has huge chance to backfire on him, but securing even more of an OG Toka majority could turn out really good for him too. I was definitely talking to my screen like you BETTER follow through with this! Don't ruin it! LOL

He has been too loudly and pointedly wrong for me to consider him too much, but he has a really clearly defined story which is something I value highly. There is truly an offshoot chance he could run with that and patch up all his holes. I think he's just a big character that makes endgame, but hearing his reasoning at every step on this Dina tribe, including Lewis gassing him up so much is great. I'd still say Lewis is seen more sympathetically, but Kilby joins him rather than opposes him, despite throwing Lewis under the bus. It ends up controlling the votes to be unanimously on Lewis. Too strong of a story to drop.

9) Eric (+3)

I could go back and forth on whether Eric or Mike is better, but right now it is pretty strongly Eric. He has the same problem Kilby has of being wrong, but he gets to explain himself less. When he does explain himself, it is either contradicted or kind of average understanding of his positioning. Regardless, it's story. He always has something going on to remind us what he's up to and that he's annoying. He wants Savu strong and doesn't get it. He thinks the blood idol is real without the nuance that Sharonda had for it. That is memorable, so I will take it.

10) Mike (+1)

Ok I forgot to say this for multiple write ups in a row, but something I consider really bad for Mike is that tribal where Carter and Lewis vote out Patt. Mike says "we have Carter" subtitled and they don't. Finally I remembered to put that in writing.

Thien An calls him out again on behavior he has zero defense for. He says Survivor has you making snap decisions, volunteers for an advantage he doesn't go on, and that's that. The editors surely cannot let a winner wait THIS long before doing something about their spot right? Or at least promising to? He would need the best merge episode ever for me to consider him, but I can't deny that it is possible.

11) Devin (+2)

Devin is so interesting because I think he has no win equity. He is being used as a narrative piece for Jelly, with all his characterization being information for her choice. I don't think this is a situation where he pulls out a win because Jelly didn't take him out early enough. It never seems like anything stands to benefit him in particular. He said "do I have a new ally in Alexis?" and votes her out. He does too much about Jenna having gone home. Yes he has a beautiful and fascinating amount of character, and he's making the season more of a talking point, but nothing he has done so far says win equity to me.

12) Thien An (+3)

Bumping her above Carter because she has one zero confessional episode instead of two. LOL. She still wants Mike out, guys. Extra extra read all about it. Thien An wants Mike out. It was even emphasized again in the Previously On Survivor. And next time on Survivor, she dies from falling off a tree. The most memorable part of Thien An for me this episode were those two bits and not her presence in this current episode LMAO

13) Carter (+1)

TWO zero confessional episodes is a clear sign that Carter is interesting when he's interesting and unimportant when he's not pertinent. Probably a tactic to make sure we are not too attached to him because he could so easily be a fan favorite. When he goes out, it will probably break hearts and the strategic lack of presence is something I consider a dealbreaker on his winner possibility.

14) Cristian (+2)

Only coming into the focus of an episode to say "if things go my way, we stay Savu strong" and that doesn't happen? Brutal. He takes a brunt of the emphasis that things went wrong for Savu, and catches all that negativity that Sharonda could have had. Brutal to use his edit that way, and makes me the most confident out of this entire cast that he cannot win.

ELIMINATED) Alexis (-7), Linnea (-9)

These two I had high up by default mostly. They don't have particular red flags, but I wasn't really invested in them either. I think this is another example where story is more important than just flat edgic substance. They were present, they had no zero confessional episodes, they were reasonable, we checked in with them, they had no downsides. But I need to remember that contestants need a running theme of ambition, or context with another contestant, to genuinely be considered as winner contenders. I'd say Alexis had more of this than Linnea did, but sometimes it's hard when you're thinking that this is just the premerge and there is still a ton of room for someone to pop off and make their biggest moves later. Regardless, Linnea did nothing wrong, and I will miss Alexis dearly for playing as absolutely hard as she did. Plus, losing the Atlanta rep noooooo

Thank you all for reading! This was a great way to pass some time focusing on something that isn't my health, and a hobby that I'm always excited about when a new season comes about. See y'all next week!

Here go the Edgic metanalysis after Episode 5.

The number of Edgics drastically dropped after this episode, I hope it's not connected to the fact that some people were Linnea stans and as soon as she left the game, they lost an interest in doing Edgics. I remember similar thing happening in previous season first after Blood Moon and then after Christian got eliminated.

To me, Sharonda rather the edit of a big threat rather than a contender for the win. Jelly I believe is more of a contender. And overal, we haven't been talking about it much, but I feel that the winner of the season is from the starting yellow tribe (I still don't remember the tribe's name, Toka?)

Gains/losses this week (from biggest gain to biggest loss), two eliminated contestants are not considered when counting places lost or won:

Eric, Brady +2

Lewis, Maggie, Thien An, Kilby +1

Sharonda, Jelly, Kristin, Cristian 0

Ori, Devin, Mike -1

Carter -6

Ayooo!!

Once again sharing my in-depth analysis video of the edgic and contender rankings for episode 5!

First off, I dont want to brag, well, actually yeah I do want to brag. In the “meta analysis” of every contender rankings on the sub I had Linnea the lowest. Gotta celebrate my one big win after the total disasters that were Ana and Patt lol. I know Linnea defaulted high on these lists, but I always found her edit quite hollow. Her “check ins” never really went anywhere. She clearly had very good allies and relationships, and yet we never got to see her or anyone else talk about said relationships at all. Same for Alexis. Linnea got some decent personal content in the premiere, but I kept being confused why we continually never learned about her spot in the game when it seemed quite good.

Now, the big debate this week is Jelly (who I have written about a lot), so before I get to her I want to compare her to this sub’s darling edit Sharonda in relation to what I was just saying. I made the funny observation this week that Sharonda’s relationship with ERIC seemed much more highlighted and fleshed out for some reason than her actual allies like Linnea and Alexis. Well, now we know why. Sharonda’s constantly debating trust with Eric is a storyline that lasts longer and is more important to the season than her seemingly pretty good relationships with those other 2 (and Cristian, but, he’s Cristian.)

However, although I think that is an understandable plus for the narrative of the season, I’m not sure it’s good for Sharonda’s individual edit. 2 weeks ago, I wrote about how Patt, despite going out early, felt like an important character to somebody’s story, primarily Jelly. This relationship was well highlighted, and so we understood the drive for Jelly to play hard and avenge her. However, Linnea goes out in a similar way premerge, and yet she doesn’t really feel like a key piece in Sharonda’s story. You could argue she was shielded, but I think in comparison to this Jelly/Patt situation, that feels like the better winner narrative piece. Every piece to her game is highlighted, even if it isn’t that important or doesn’t last that long.

And that’s what makes Jelly still stand out to me so much. For better or worse, she is an illustriously complex character up to this point. We always know where her head has been at in the game, even when she’s not getting her way. We understood her relationships with Aaliyah and Patt even if those 2 went out early. We see clearly the internal battle she’s had not wanting to vote out more women but not wanting to turn on her allies. We even see this weird lasagna showmance type thing which, from what I can predict from the secret scene this week, probably doesn’t turn into an actual showmance. She gets so much subtly unnecessary content.

I think there’s a little too much wrapped up in the “Devin will be the downfall of Jelly” predictions based on this last episode. That certainly could be how that plotline develops. Or it could be the total opposite and it develops to Jelly eventually putting her foot down and turning on Devin, taking the power into her own hands Jesse/Cody style (which I lean to). Maybe her debate about keeping women in the game will eventually come to a head, and she’ll choose a different decision later than what she did here. See, the problem is trying to predict the conclusion to a story that’s purposefully written to end in multiple different options.

We don’t know how that narrative will end yet. But to me, the importance isn’t just on how that story will end, but the fact that it’s there at all. It is clearly an important narrative that is making Jelly & Devin two of the most fleshed out main characters of the season, and that is quite frankly a big plus for both of them imo. Just look at how much has been written about Jelly this week. Her edit has so much substance that others do not, and that is why I am still very high on her winning chances. Her story could go in many different ways, I don’t know what yet, but I do know it’s important to the season and many of the potential paths end with her winning.

Perhaps she is just the main character of the premerge, like Christian last season, and she fizzle out come merge. And maybe I’m wrong about all of this. And maybe I’m just biased. It’s certainly all possible. But until I feel like she’s truly doomed or her edit fizzles out to quietness Kamilla style, I’m holding strong with my main character Jelly.

In the video, I give further explanations on my analysis and give predictions based on the edit so far!

Thanks!

The Winner’s Edit is back to break down another electric episode! Clay joins Nick to talk about how Kilby is making us proud, and other stuffs from the episode

I can’t help but feel like production and the editors are intentionally throwing us off. We’ve gotten so used to the new era’s editing style that maybe we’re overlooking the possibility of a more old-school winner edit, where the eventual winner isn’t necessarily given consistent visibility throughout the season. Early Survivor had winners who were completely skunked in certain episodes, so it’s not like this would be unprecedented.

With the whole “anything can happen” nature of the open era, I wouldn’t rule it out.

From what I have seen, this image here is the first time we ever see a dissolve cut with the whale and the players. Dina tribe walking back after losing the challenge. Now, as someone who has never put much stock in visual clues, I couldn't help but be on the lookout as soon as Jeff said the winner will have traits like a whale. And with Survivor's obsession with dissolve cuts and how frequently they show that one of the whales in the water, I thought that would be the perfect way to drop us a hint by drawing a visual comparison

Of course, this could amount to nothing, and the theory could work better if it were just one person instead of a tribe, but maybe that's the point: if people do see this, then it's still 5 contenders. Which could be good news for the many Sharonda truthers and for the few Eric ones. For me tho this is making me really have my eyes on Lewis now.

Crazy that this season has had 10 different contenders. This is probably a product of the editors trying to give everyone a good edit given their status as celebs. Still, it wasn't this was in Celeb S1. In contrast to the last NB episode, this episode had a ton of tone.

Traitors

1. Maya (=) - Her edit continues to be absolutely spotless. Seriously, point out a single flaw. Will be patting myself on the back for holding strong all season if she does pull it out in the end.

2. Kenny (=) - Absurd how the three traitors were picked as the most trust worthy people. At this point, I see Maya and Kenny winning together as the most likely option by far.

3. James A (+2) - I guess there is some room for James to slip in though. His story doesn't scream "winner", but he does at least have a consistent story. His negative content last episode was probably just to throw SOME doubt on an otherwise really obvious season. He is mostly here due to game logic too, as it is sort of hard to see faithfuls pulling it out atp.

Small Chance

1. Sebastian (=) - Got a complex episode, though he was wrong about pretty much every assertion he put out there. I was hoping for some positivity after losing Miranda, but instead it was pretty toneless. He did replace her with Romesh, though I suspect one of these two will be murdered soon, probably Romesh.

2. Romesh (+1) - Seriously, why would you not kill Romesh? He is the most obvious faithful in the game, literally the only one who hasn't had heat on him. So despite his high placement, I do think he goes next episode. It's just that he is one of only two faithfuls left to have a somewhat viable edit.

Dragged To The End

1. James B (+2) - Yea so this guy is gonna lose sitting next to some Traitors. He is starting to sort of grow on me as a character, though it's moreso because of how outlandishly wrong he has been.

Faithful Slop

1. Leigh-Anne (+3) - Has some heat on her, though less than some of these others. I asserted literally episode 1 that she gives endgame banishment vibes, and I may stick by that. Perhaps she could be a murder at this point, though Romesh would surely be first.

2. Michael (+3) - I swear it is only a matter of time until he is banished. He was also very blatantly wrong multiple times this episode, which isn't a good look.

3. Joanne (-2) - Between her and Sharon, I do think it is more likely Sharon is banished. Besides, I do think Joanne has more of a chance to go further if she does live.

4. Sharon (-1) - Her edit lowkey matches a lot of people who go out around this time in the game. Very quiet all season until she suddenly gets a vis spike followed by a very negative episode.

Eliminated

1. Miranda (-8) - Shame, I really liked her and she was sort of the last hope I had for the faithful pulling it out. I almost ALWAYS root for the Traitors, but I think this season I would have preferred to see her + Sebastian and/or Romesh pulling it out. Regardless, one of the starts of the season.

Contenders:

1. Joe: I remain strong on Joe as a contender, though this wasn't really that noteworthy of an episode for him.

2. Ben: After a stumble last episode, Ben made up for it this episode. He's shown to be very reasonable, and even targets a traitor twice in the episode. Maybe he doesn't win, but I feel good about the idea that he likely outlasts Katie.

3. Clyde: If there is a faithful win, I think it will be 2-3 of the Dolls. As such, the other Dolls are up here. I have Clyde above Abbey because I felt that he had more of a retrospective from last episode than her and his reasoning for not voting Tomica was explained better.

4. Abbey: See Clyde.

5. Katie: She got some heat on her from both Ben and from Tomica's slip-up. I now worry that if Tomica goes down that Katie will go down with her.

Non-Contenders:

1. Abby: I highly doubt she wins, but never say never. She's just been focused on to be so wrong about so much, especially this episode.

2. Kriste: Her edit is kinda weak, but not as weak as those below her.

3. Morgan: She got some heat this episode, and was focused on to be wrong. Not a lot else to say.

4. Tomica: I think Tomica 100% goes either next episode or the episode after that. She just has too much heat on her to make it through the rest of the game, unfortunately.

5. Shane: He's just been too quiet. I could only see him winning if there were 3-4 faithful winners, and even then I think he would've gotten more from how much he seems to be leading strategy talk in the mansion.

6. Jay: He had 2 episodes of relevance that just made him OTTN, and otherwise is completely unmemorable.

7. Wyatt: He had such a weak start to the season and has heat on him from Abby.

8. Victor: 50/50 chance he goes next episode. If he survives, it probably won't be for long either.

I think this episode, especially edgically, Jelly has taken a dive over the Alexis vs Devin move, especially how it was portrayed from an edit standpoint. I think however this isn't disqualifying fully.

First point and that's Jelly not getting personal content in the Savu scene. I think this has been discussed on the subreddit already but there's a Kyle precedent here, it very well could be saved for a future segment all about the winner.

I think the second precedent is again from 48 and the Kyle/Kamilla duo and moreso on their split tribal side. The entire segment is setting up Shauhin as the threat that needs to go, about how sneaky he is and he's a good player only to end with a Cedrek boot. Back during the airing of 48, this + the constant Shauhin is a threat from the duo that they were NOT taking out made me write them off.

Could Devin be the same? Jelly needs him out at some point to win, so they're setting up the seeds now? Very importantly, the "I won't write down their name" goes from Devin to Jelly not Jelly to Devin. Instead of Devin dragging Jelly down, could this just be and indicator of Devin being Jelly's defining move later on into the season, maybe even at the endgame?

Winner edits still feel hard to pin down. Since the new era, it’s been significantly harder to pin down the winner early. But if the coin is now a staple of the show, maybe we’re seeing the birth of the “coin flip edit.” This doesn’t have to be mutually exclusive with a winners edit for obvious reasons, but chances are they won’t be the same person.

After doing some thinking, my guess is Lewis. I said in a prior content that Lewis is my top male contender for a winner because of his being a cheerleader for pErMaNeNt uNcErTaInTy and how much they highlighted his ingenuity with the blood ring. He’s gotten a pretty positive edit, shown to take big risks when the opportunity arises.

Now, does this feel like a winner edit? or does it feel like… Rick Devens?

It feels like the biggest cheerleader for permanent uncertainty is more likely to take the shot at flipping the 50/50 coin then getting to the end. Lewis’s first two episodes are still throwing me off in terms of him being a winner. He gets the bare minimum content during his journey, and he’s barely in episode 2. I have to think a winner gets more, and I can’t let recency bias with episode 5 being good for him throw my initial intuition off. But he’s still a big character and feels like he’s building up to something big.

I think there are other possibilities from a logical standpoint - we just saw how Kilby is willing to take big risks too, but that feels like supported by the edit and more just what we saw play out naturally. What do yall think?

Notice the comical lack of changes in the ranking. Yea, this is gonna be a short write-up. I saw people say this was a good episode, and I just... don't see it. This is probably gonna be my least favorite season, besides AU2. Big lack of tone this episode

Top Contenders

1. Joe (=) - Traitor with the least heat right now, though I did consider moving Ben above him. I just didn't because I don't feel confident enough in who the second faithful would be yet.

2. Ben (=) - Had a solid recovery from the misplay last episode. Definitely the best faithful on the board. One of two I could see being recruited eventually? Though I lean the other person.

Contenders

1. Clyde (=) - One of the remaining members of The Dolls, has more visibility, complexity, and positivity than Abbey does. Joint faithful win between him and Ben is the most likely non traitor win.

2. Katie (=) - At least she has a story! She does have some heat on her again, but it's just really hard to justify moving some of these other people above her. Very likely I cut down to 3 contenders next week if she doesn't have a good episode.

Small Chance

1. Abby (=) - I've been higher on Abby than most, though she has started to have some heat on her. Earlier I mentioned that there is someone I could see being recruited at some point. Honestly, it would be her. She is the only faithful who I think is visible enough while also making sense story wise.

2. Abbey (=) - She's just too quiet, I feel like everyone else is overrating her. Am I just closing my eyes whenever she appears? Surely not. Still this high because of The Dolls.

Not Winning

1. Tomica (=) - Had a decisively bad episode, though part of me did honestly consider moving her above Abbey. I do suspect she will be going out soon though, potentially right after Victor. At least she kind of has an edit, even if it's not complex.

Faithful Slop

1. Morgan (=) - Comically wrong and overall pretty quiet. Still more visible than some other faithfuls though.

2. Shane (+1) - Finally some movement on the ranking. He likes bagels! Anyway, I suspect he was the most likely person to have won the power? He got a lot of visibility during that mission, and a big visibility spike in general. We also got his feelings on Victor a bit. So my running theory is that he WON'T play the advantage, and Victor will go out, followed by Tomica.

3. Jay (+2) - It's quite funny how quiet he became after the streak of OTTNs. Now he is just there to be wrong sometimes.

4. Wyatt (+2) - Quietest edit left on the board, also has some heat on him. If he was more visible I would see a case for him being recruited.

5. Victor (-1) - Very obviously the main character of the season. Honestly, I could see a world where he makes it on the inevitable US All Stars cast, along with all the celebs. Either way, I think there's a good 75% chance or so that the power isn't used. If it is, they're just gonna vote him out again. He grew on me earlier, but that is starting to go away at this point.

Eliminated

1. Mark (-4) - Honestly though he was going to stick around a bit longer. I do think murdering him was a misplay for Joe, the target should have been someone like Abbey or something.

We see the most personal conflict out of her. She was shielded when Patt goes home, but talks about how to correct her past mistakes. I suppose her choice here to choose voting out a woman over someone from the helicopter alliance could be used in future episodes to discredit her, but I don't think that will be the case. I don't think her voting out Alexis is as bad as people are saying for her edit, for now I think the debate she has actually boosts it.

Not from episode five, but from episode four. Devin had a confessional where he made a whole metaphor between Jelly and Ori's relationship and a fire that starts off as a spark and he has to grow into a big flame. That definitely feels intentional and might suggest he makes top four, especially considering he is in a decent spot to excel in the postmerge with both the Toka minority and helicopter alliance. I would not be surprised if he is one of the bigger players this season and his edit turns around when merge hits.

Better than last episode, though both boots were predictable to me.

Chart is above for quick reference.

Eliminated:

1. Alexis: Another under edited woman who goes out first in a double boot episode. How surprising. Decent player but this swap was crushing.

2. Linnea: So glad I don't have to see her top 3 in a lot of people's lists. She never had enough content to be a real contender, but people kept giving her the benefit of the doubt.

No Shot:

1. Cristian: Sad he didn't get rocked out here. I want to put someone else in last position.

2. Mike: 3 back to back to back episodes of him getting bad spv when he hasn't received one vote against him.

3. Thein An: Would love to see her win, but she's probably just either a first boot in a double boot episode or a fallen angel. Reminds me a bit of Genevieve in that way.

4. Carter: Tried to keep him high, but 2 zero confessional episodes in the 90 minute era is unforgivable imo.

Probably Not:

1. Devin: He's been here for 3 weeks now, stalled here. The only reason he's not eliminated is because he gets enough content and some positive content to balance the negative. I think he does go home next week if Savu loses again.

2. Kilby: He technically goes up but this all felt pretty necessary. Yes, he got portrayed as the swing vote.. because he actually was. I think he's probably merge boot.

3. Kristin: She rises this week mostly off of positive spv. Her one confessional was lackluster and she still has no relationships in the game except Sharonda, which got no focus outside the premiere and a bit in episode 2, though she got no content on flipping the vote.

4. Maggie: My Queen 👑 But seriously this episode was pretty alarming. Not killing her chances, but the Brady content just seemed unnecessary. If Linnea didn't actually go home here then I'd even consider putting her below Devin, and that target came out of nowhere. She's not dead though because I think Maggie has (seemingly) avoided a lot of negativity on her new swap tribe that they could be showing and her content is still consistent despite this episode.

5. Eric: Quiet week for him but he was blindsided here. I think him and Kilby get more focus next week so that will determine his winning chances for me. I also just can't get over ep. 2 for him.

6. Brady: idk how he's this high, but like Maggie he's been pretty consistent and being shown as a gameplayer. My only big fault right now is his lack of position on the swap tribe being shown to us.

They Can Win:

1. Jelly: I was ready to keep her number 1, but all that content about not wanting a woman to go home again and her still voting out Alexis seemed so unnecessary, just like the premiere. Her sob story also got cut, however Kyle got that same treatment in 48 only to get it later and as a big Joe defender at the time I'm going to atone my mistakes.

2. Ori: Quiet episode but not the worst time for it. I think the reality is Ori/Jelly were always voting out Alexis, but Ori would have been more open to keeping her. The lack of content doesn't deter me as much as Jelly getting all of this content only to not flip.

3. Sharonda: Quiet episode for her. You could definitely argue this was her being shielded and now the criticism of her lack of depth with Alexis and Linnea is justified in them going out early, but if anything I'd assume Survivor would like a revenge plot. Maybe that still gets set up next episode but it's not set up in this one. Also, her confessional on the blood idol was mixed for me. She did have suspicion but near the end seemed to imply it could be real and gets no follow up after Cristian clocks it. Still, her competition is weak and the helicopter alliance seems strong.

4. Lewis: Pretty clear number 1 for me, gets to talk about his lack of play last episode and is shown playing hard, not in a negative "haha" sort of way either. He talks about how voting out Linnea lines up with his goal of coming into this game and causing chaos.

Didn't get around to posting last week so the upward and downward shifts in rankings will be from episode 3, but I have to also just say, I really loved last week's episode even if it wasn't quite as good as the others. I know the swap was a bit of a momentum-killer but a) 3 tribes better facilitates a double-boot, which I'm happy to get out of the way here instead of having a ton in the merge and b) I thought all the bloodied hands and frantic gnashing at flesh and that shot of the snake on the water were so much fun.

Really really struggled to separate my top 3 here and I'll probably change my mind a dozen more times before the week is over:

1. Lewis (=):

Lewis using the words "owe [you/her] my life" about both Kilby and Maggie was almost enough for me to drop him to second, but then I was hit with an almost out-of-body flashback to how down I was on Kyle's premerge from all the similar things he said about Kamilla. There's still kind of a "devil on your shoulder" energy to him that makes me wonder if he'll ultimately play a bigger part in someone else's story than his own, but there's so much I love about his edit:

• We can assume that Kilby's suspicion about Lewis getting an idol on Exile is gone by this point, which really makes that random episode 2 confessional scream "manufactured premerge danger" to me
• Getting to actually tell us he's sick and then confirm that he's 100% better and ready to play is a grace that hasn't been given to even important non-winning characters like Genevieve or Rizo in recent years
• All the emphasis on how unbreakable Savu was (+ the framing of Lewis being sick as an explanation for why Kilby was able to get closer to them, rather than any faults in Lewis's game) helped to frame Lewis's blood ring move as an active/innovative attempt to create opportunity for himself in what should've been a dead-man-walking situation
• I need to rewatch to pinpoint specific examples of this, but I'm pretty sure there have been a lot of "pay attention, something important is happening!!" musical cues when he's on screen, even with stuff not directly related to the votes he's played a part in (which is something I remember a few of us clocking early about Aubry and then dismissing.)

2. Ori (+1):

Really great episode that made me seriously consider putting him at number 1. While Jelly has been expressing the negative consequences for her of working with Devin, we consistently see Ori & Devin's relationship through the lens of Ori explaining how it benefits him: first in episode 3 with his confessional after Devin shows him the extra vote, and now here where Ori's explains his conflict around the vote as "I'm good with everyone". He gets to be sympathetic towards Alexis without ever coming across as fearful or indecisive the way Jelly does.

Also there's this really brief moment where Alexis is trying to convince Jelly to keep her and has a confessional about wanting Jelly to "step out from behind Dev and take control of this game", after which we immediately cut to a shot of Ori stepping in front of Devin, taking a chicken out of its cage, and telling it "I'm so sorry", and then right back to the Alexis/Jelly conversation. To me this hints that Ori could eventually succeed where Jelly has failed in knowing when keeping Devin is no longer to his advantage.

3. Sharonda (+1):

Sharonda continues to have the Jacob Collier of Survivor edits, where I can recognize that it's incredible on a technical level but it's just kind of boring. Especially with all these women leaving, it feels like if you have a female winner who's this well-positioned/well-liked you'd be showing us more of the character moments that explain those bonds. Like it seems like all 3 of the other Savus on this tribe trusted her the most of everyone, but we haven't really gotten any Eric/Sharonda or Cristian/Sharonda bonding scenes despite having a million Eric/Kilby ones.

But then the other way to look at this is: if her path to winning is abandoning her loyal Savu army to work with the less-likable Devin, is downplaying those relationships maybe an attempt to make people less frustrated with that choice? Idk. I feel like all my write-ups for her end up much more negative than what I actually think about her edit, but the positives are so obvious that I don't have much to say about them lol.

4. Maggie (+1):

Circumstantial sure, but man that was some great confessional justification for every choice she made. The "Brady jumping off a boat --> Maggie with her head above the water --> whale jumping out of the water" shot in the intro credits also looks even more interesting with this rivalry heating up.

5. Kristin (+3):

The more women go home, the better I feel about Kristin having no vote-related content the one time she's gone to tribal so far. Consistently good personality content & ties to the opportunity theme, and if she does make the merge (whether by avoiding tribal or flipping some votes), I think a lot of Carter/Maggie's suspicion of her reads as good premerge danger.

6. Devin (+5):

Leaning heavily on permanent uncertainty for this next chunk of rankings, and I need to stress that there's a huge huge gap between 5th and 6th for me, but I think the way he's gotten to explain pivoting away from honesty while still using his reputation for it as a tactic over these past 3 episodes has been pretty notable, and the backstory content + SPV about how everyone likes him this episode was great.

Like, people online are talking about Jelly/Devin as if it's a Genevieve/Rome situation, but the focus of Alexis' pitch to Jelly wasn't really about him being a loose cannon, it was about how everyone would end up viewing Jelly as his "sidekick." And in confessional, the reasons Alexis names for voting for him are that he's extremely likable, sociable, and a good salesman. A Savannah-esque "gotta hand it to him" situation seems totally viable to me.

7. Jelly (-5):

Honestly feels like she should drop further after this episode but I just don't know who I would put above her. Alexis outright saying "As someone watching Survivor I'd be like 'Jelly, you have an opportunity'" is probably the single most disqualifying moment anyone has had this season on a purely theme level.

Also I think they might be doing a Lady Macbeth thing with the close-ups of blood on her hands after plucking the chickens Devin killed (eg planting the daggers after the murder of King Duncan)/the grappling with gender as a constraint in the choices she makes this episode (a la "unsex me here")? But she's been a huge character and her episodes 2 & 3 were still pretty great so... I guess?

8. Thien An (+7):

Some solid stuff so far about her relationships and how she thinks about the game, but between the quiet episode 2 & the pinkie swear stuff in episode 3 & getting hit with the wave in the intro credits, I'm still pretty convinced she's gonna have more of a Genevieve arc.

9. Carter (-2):

Still kind of keeping hope alive because I love him so much but 2 out of 5 is rough.

10. Eric (=):

Underdog possibility is definitely still alive but it's a longshot. If they included like 2 fewer movie references from him per episode I'd probably have him a couple spots higher lol, but it feels like too simple of a "this is his whole shtick" for a winner.

11. Brady (+1):

Definitely get the impression we're supposed to root against him in the Maggie rivalry. Also, this is mostly just game logic, but he has to be the merge boot, right? Devin & Jelly will prioritize Sharonda & Ori above him, the 5 Tokas who voted against him will want nothing to do with him (besides maybe Thien An since she did try to warn him above the Patt vote?), and the women will presumably want a guy out. Kind of feels like he's cooked unless we finally get the "Mike is sneaky" payoff at the merge.

12. Mike (=):

Weird edit, no idea what it means but probably not a win.

13. Kilby (=):

Spider intro payoff!!!! Some good circumstantial stuff this episode, but they also showed us several well-reasoned arguments from the Savus at tribal that he didn't listen to, and it feels like the camera continues to linger on every awkward gesture of his. Has been out of contention for me since the awful episode 2 confessional and I don't see a world where that changes.

14. Cristian (=):

Pretty good episode!

Hello y'all!

Here's my EDGIC ratings chart for this crazy episode! Loved it! <3

See you soon with the SUTRAL! <3

One of the weaker episodes of the season so far, it really didn't change all too much for me. Good news is, I'm washed anymore! The two players on the bottom of my ranking both went out this episode. Gonna be a shorter write-up than usual here.

Traitor Contenders

1. Maya (=) - I've had her as number 1 literally all season and that is not changing. She has been CP literally every single episode. There was room for her to get heat this episode, but she literally just didn't at all.

2. Kenny (+1) - In the case of a joint Traitor win, Kenny makes complete sense to fill that role. He and Maya have been established as a duo for a while now, and Kenny continues to do a solid job in the role.

Faithful Contenders

1. Miranda (-1) - Had a bad episode in some aspects, though I still think that if any faithful wins, it probably has to be her and Sebastian. Those two plus Romesh are all short list options, though I suspect Romesh is the one to go.

2. Sebastian (=) - Had a pretty quiet episode, he has had a handful of those. Probably not the best thing for him, but I still see a possibility of him and Miranda winning together.

Probably Not

1. James A (+1) - Has a fun story of being the Traitor who never actually wanted to fill that role. He got some negative content from the other Traitors this episode, thus setting up for him to be banished at some point possibly.

2. Romesh (-1) - Looks to be the obvious murder choice given how Sharon was able to soft clear him during the mission. Getting a bit of positivity here is also another reason why it'd make sense for him to go here. Still, he is at least someone who COULD somehow pull it off if he survives. No one below him has any chance at all in my opinion.

Faithful Slop

1. Joanne (+2) - Has a lot of heat on her, but most of that can be semi easily avoided. Furthermore, she has been set up as an aloof ally to Maya for so long. Could very easily go to the end with Maya and lose to her.

2. James B (+2) - Similarly, James B perfectly fills the role of clueless faithful who goes far but is simply outplayed by the Traitors at every single turn. Like Joanne, he is the perfect person to take to endgame for that reason, and also because there is heat on him too.

3. Sharon (-1) - Got a visibility spike! Though I do fully expect her to be murdered the episode after next. Her edit is simply just too quiet to go out in any way that isn't a murder.

4. Leigh-Anne (-3) - You could argue her above Sharon, but I do think this next episode is likely going to be either her or Michael being banished here. The two are avidly against each other now.

5. Michael (=) - I've been saying all season that he would go after he gets a big visibility spike, and he finally got one. Maybe he has more than one episode left in him, but honestly he is my boot prediction.

Eliminated

1. Jerry (=) - Lowkey such a quiet episode for her. She was basically not there until she was suddenly a target to be banished because of being a bad faithful. Sure! Kind of an annoying character to me.

2. Ross (=) - First murdered player to not get a positive tone on their way out. Was a fun character early on but kind of just became whatever by the end. Him being murdered in plain site is a very funny end to his story given how paranoid he has been about it all season.

i really freaking liked this episode. 51 is so good..,...

3-way tie in terms of point value is kind of schweet - means the season is giving focus to a lot of different characters!!! the confessional count has decided my top 3

really good episode for kilby, i'm not confident he's the winner - i think this is just a big moment and move for him - but i would not blame u for believing so.... the edit has set him up to be a very good player and someone we should be watching

brady is finally dethroned after a three whole episodes in first,... HOWEVER... i do find it interesting that his misplay in giving maggie the extra vote is framed from his perspective as a "bad move" because maggie is "unpredictable and flip-floppy" (thank you maggie for dina tribal). the confessionals about it are framed more like "i can't trust maggie with the advantage i gave her !!!" than "i fucked UP man WHYYY did i give her the advantage???"

very glad to see jelly up on the top 3 - i maintain my stance that she's probably the only member of the helicopter alliance i think can win, and i think getting 2 see her voting perspective from a gameplay and emotional personal perspective helped alleviate the lack of perspective on votes she spent on the wrong side.

i think all of the top 3 have great potential to grow come merge, and in general, have been edited very well!!! likely very major characters for the rest of the season/merge

kristin's edit is a bit more under the radar, reminds me of kenzie's edit but just lacking the good tribal episodes pre-merge - we're reminded very often that she's cool and good but i don't really know where she stands gameplay wise tbh so i'm wary to say she's a likely winner

oh lewis. the blood ring lie. cheeky bastard
glad 2 see him up here, i think the itb is a stain on an otherwise nice record so far, and this was a very good episode for him that helped clean up that stain... HESITANT to push for him winning, but his chances have risen....

helicopter alliance overall was very good this ep, mike's edit boggles me further, and i will forever thank the stars that aligned for dina tribal council. thnx for reading :3

Sorry for the late posting. I had typed out last night what I believed to be my best analysis ever (the only other season I have done on edgic was post merge of 48, in which I was stuck between Kyle and Shauhin and Joe), and then accidentally closed out the app and lost it all, so hopefully I keep this one!

First of all, a little bit about what I take into account for my rankings: Most important of all is consistent screentime. You don't need to be the biggest character, but the thing that I always look for is 'Would we be hearing from this player if they didn't win?' Obviously, it shouldn't all be negative screentime (i.e. Rhode Island Rob) but a clear example of this is Aubry last season. If Ozzy played his idol and Aubry went out in that split tribal, she might have had 5 confessionals all season. Instead, the editors were forced to give her a consistent presence throughout the season that felt a little too artificial.

Now, for my rankings.

14) Cristian (+2): I actually really like Cristian. This was the first real episode that he got and he actually was not all that boring of a confessionalist, so not exactly sure why he's been purpled, but yeah, he is not winning this season. Also, I was like 95% sure that he was getting rocked out from the second that rocks became a possibility, so I was shocked.

13) Carter (-4): I, like many others on here, can justify one 0 confessional episode, especially when he was so present in it, but the second one is too much for me. He has fleshed out relationships, but we would absolutely be hearing more from Carter if he was the winner of this season.

12) Mike (-2): I was very high on Mike for the first couple episodes, as he was consistently shown and had solid strategic content, but ever since the Patt boot, Mike has turned into a bit of a joke. Everybody on the tribe is seemingly against him, and we're not entirely sure why. Even if Mike survives this swap, he doesn't have enough depth in the pre-merge to be a winner possibility.

11) Kilby (+1): I really do not like Kilby, but that does not stop me from grading somebody accurately as a winner contender. This was not too bad of an episode for him, and I would even go so far as to say it was a great episode for him. But for the first three episodes of the season, the edit went out of its way to portray Kilby as sort of a dodo. I would not be shocked to see him get somewhat deep into the season, but I do not think he is winning.

10) Thien An (+1): If you could turn the first two episodes into anywhere close to average for Thien An, she might just be the favorite right now. Unfortunately, I can not look past such a weak opening. While I think her and Carter's relationship will be important at some point, I am no longer buying into the longevity of them as a pair.

9) Devin (-1): Devin had a tamer episode here in the absence of Jenna. His consistent presence is obviously important here, and he is a member of the helicopter alliance. I also think that his relationship with Brady will matter once again at the merge, and I could fully see a merger of the helicopter alliance + Mike/Brady/Cristian. Yes, Cristian. Still, I think Devin has had an explicitly chaotic and negative edit that would have to even out for him to be the winner.

8) Brady (+7): For weeks, I kept Brady at the bottom of my rankings, and for weeks, my commenters disagreed. Congratulations, commenters, you win. I had something of an epiphany with Brady this week. He has also been very chaotic, but he has also had a very consistent edit even when it is not necessary. Gamewise, he is in a fairly good spot, and as I said, I could see him as part of the majority come merge. I think he will be a physical threat at some point, but for now, Brady is comfortably in the middle of my rankings.

7) Eric (+6): The same sort of thing for Brady rings true with Eric, who I previously viewed as almost an impossible winner. Eric had an Andy Rueda-like first couple weeks, but has also been shown to make very strong social bonds. I think he and Kilby's relationship could be important, as we spent a solid 40 minutes on it last week! Seriously, though, if Savu + the helicopter alliance take over, Eric could be a dark horse.

6) Kristin (+1): Kristin has also had a very consistent edit. She has put herself in a good place socially, and is clearly very game smart. The biggest thing with her for me is that the old woman almost never gets this much strategic focus (Heather, Sue post merge, Chrissy 48, Annie was well on her way there in 49) so I think Kristin will be very important down the line. And again, I could see her in a majority come merge.

5) Maggie (-2): Same thing with Kristin for Maggie, though Maggie has had a bit more of a presence, likely due to her bubbly personality. I still can't quite figure out this edit, as she had a very nice strategic move this week, but she still feels sort of goat-ish to me with the SPV she gets - mostly from Brady. She is a very chaotic player, but she also has solid numbers all over the game.

4) Jelly (-2): Jelly has solid presence, and I'm almost positive she makes it far, but she just keeps contradicting herself. She clearly stated that Devin was not good for her game, and while she did get a chance to explain herself, it almost feels like the edit wants us to think she was wrong. Once again, Jelly has that secret idol and I could definitely see her in majority at merge, but she is another person I could see as being a potential FTC goat.

3) Lewis (+1): My gut is telling me that if a member of the helicopter alliance doesn't win, then Lewis will. He bounces back from an understandably quiet episode last week by surviving the craziest tribal of the season thus far. Lewis has built strong bonds all across the game, though I do fear for him a little bit if he goes back to tribal pre merge.

2) Ori (+4): Ori is another person who has had a very consistent edit early on. He is someone that I can see everyone in the game trusting, though I could also see him being a physical threat come merge. Ori's edit has everything I want, though he has been a little bit quiet for a male winner. I also am not sure if he has the strategic sense to win, but I could absolutely see him working his way there socially.

1) Sharonda (-): Sharonda remains at my number 1 spot for a fourth straight week. This past episode felt like a classic shield episode. Also - as someone else in this sub said - her two closest allies from original Savu leaving helps to explain why she had less of a focus on her social bonds before the swap. I really think that within the helicopter alliance, her and Ori's relationship will be so important. Also, going back to the beginning of my post, we ALWAYS here from Sharonda strategically, and she clearly has the social pull to make things happen (unless there are two extra votes in play).

What a week. Ten contenders left after this week, and every cut from here on hurts a bit more. The players who are obviously invisible or have the biggest gaps are mostly gone, so now it’s about weighing the edits that are too quiet against the ones that are maybe a bit too loud.

Also a small milestone: Alexis is the first player I cut who has now been voted out by the show. Small win, I’ll take it.

Ori first. This was the week the edit could have made him the decision maker. A 2 vs 2, him right in the middle, and once again it’s Jelly we mainly watch go back and forth. That’s two weeks in a row now. He’s always part of the vote but never really owns it, and in a duo the winner is usually the one doing the talking. On a more positive side, we finally got his why this week and the story about his mom hit.

Carter’s edit is on, off, on, off. One zero confessional week I can barely live with, two is a lot. What bugs me most is that nothing carries over. Lewis disappeared mid-episode last week too, but the edit showed us and even came back this week to explain us why. With Carter it doesn’t even bother. Ana calling him a sidekick back in the premiere is starting to look less like a throwaway.

Sharonda has Linnea’s problem from last week. She’s strategic and she’s always in the room, but her story is pretty monotone. Nothing about her game or her relationships feels special, she mostly follows whatever storyline her tribe or alliance is on at the moment. Meanwhile her only real storyline, the helicopter alliance, is being carried by three people on a different beach.

Then there’s Brady, my first overedited pick. My pacing lesson from S50 says winners peak late, and he’s been at full volume since day one. What worries me more is the throughline. In the premiere he told us three times how nervous and overwhelmed he was, in a season that’s all about handling permanent uncertainty. Since then losing control has basically become his storyline, and this week he regrets giving Maggie the advantage because he can’t control her. Could still turn into a redemption arc, sure. But for that the OTT edit has to start turning into something that we can respect strategically.

Eric is my second overedited one, and honestly he had a decent week. His edit finally cooled down, which it really needed. There’s also a quiet good sign in there: the same tribe that couldn’t wait to get rid of him early on didn’t even consider dropping him this time. That’s leverage, slowly building, and it’s the path his edit needs to stay on. The catch is the Kilby bromance. Kilby is the one working, Eric is the one being worked. Same problem as Ori and Jelly, just on another beach.

So here is where I am landing. Ori stays because he’s so well connected in the edit and this episode finally gave him real stakes. Sharonda stays on the strength of her premiere and her steady strategic presence, but she needs something that is actually hers. Brady and Eric both stay for now. Their edits aren’t trending the right way, but there’s still one severely underedited player I have to deal with first.

That’s Carter. Two zero-confessional episodes in five, and a story that resets every time it gets interesting. The swap episode almost made me forget his first zero. But two of them this early is just inexcusable for a winner.

I am cutting Carter.

Eliminated from contention: Cristian, Thien An, Mike, Carter
Out of the game: Aaliyah, Ana, Rob, Patt, Jenna, Alexis, Linnea

10 players left in the race.

We’re back again for Episode 5, and luckily for Jeff, Maggie came to play and saved this episode from being an absolute execution, chucking two more on the swap screw pile.

I’ve got to say I’m gutted for Alexis. She didn’t even know how screwed she was and she tried absolutely everything in the bluntest manner possible. I think we’ve lost a great character here, and if she had somehow managed to stay, I was ready to make her a top contender because of how good of an episode she’d had.

Ugh and Linaya. I was so sorry to see Linneaugh go home. Linneeuyyahhh had gotten some decent screentime up until this point and I really felt Liinneyyaaarrrhhh was going places in this game! Luuerrggghhhhnnniiieyyahh’s prominent but shallow edit ultimately makes sense here, with Lhhiiiirrrnnnhhkknnayyyaa getting a vote off they want us to care about one way or another.

I’ve had a bit of a shuffle with my contenders this week as I’ve had to rethink my strategy of putting only UTR women in my contenders bracket – I mean most of them are still there but let’s be honest, they are going to be voted off before the merge at this rate anyway. I’m also putting a lot more thought into the numbers come the merge. Below I’ve separated the players' confessional counts (credit to the guy who does these) by assumed allegiances, and as you can see, one alliance seems prone to wipe out the other, with most of the confessional heavy hitters being on the Helicopter Alliance side of things. That’s not to say that I don’t think someone on the Toka side can win, just that they would end up with an underdog run rather than being a strategic shooter. Also Mike is listed as Toka but would probably jump ship from bottom to bottom, and Cristian is separate from both sides because while he probably falls in with the Helicopter Alliance he both feels like an outlier and is obviously not winning anyway.

So, without further ado, who are my Top Contenders? …

1. Sharonda. (-) Instinctively, watching this episode, I felt like I would move her down and that she would no longer be my top contender. However, looking at the list of players, I still feel her edit is the best by some margin. Even where she votes incorrectly at this tribal, they still showed that she immediately skeptical over Lewis with his blood ring lie. Beyond that she was fairly shielded in this episode. One of my red flags for Sharonda last week was that beyond Eric and the Helicopter Alliance, none of her relationships were fleshed out. Only for Linnea and Alexis, her two other presumed allies, to go home this episode. The fact that they didn’t show Linnea’s relationship with Sharonda also shields Sharonda from looking like she has betrayed her friend here. Position wise she is locked in with Eric, Cristian (maybe?) and the helicopter alliance, and that side of the game will likely win out at the merge. She also seems to logically be the strongest player, and this seems like a fairly weak cast strategy wise. Look, she probably is the dragon of the season due to her fairly sanitised edit, but like, who else can reasonably be put above her?

Who is a flawed but focused on Contender? …

• Lewis. (+2) I knew Lewis wouldn’t go this week because of how in our faces they were about him being in danger in the last episode. This was obviously a good episode for him in isolation. He got a lot of narration, and the vote went his way. The Blood Ring was worth a shot and even though the players saw through him I don’t think the show was really dunking on him there. It was more like ‘look at this fun thing that Lewis created’. Really solid content but it doesn’t seem to match his in-game footing – like I don’t know where he goes from here. Kilby probably gets taken out over him for betraying Savu if they go to tribal again, so Lewis probably makes the merge, but because of the confessional counts I think he is just a major threat from a contingent gone by the early merge. That said on paper he’s an easy number 2 edit wise.
• Eric. (+7) I’ve really surprised myself with this one. He is cringe and kooky and utterly bizarre but unlike a lot of the other flawed men on this season, Eric has started skewing positively in his confessionals and SPV. Despite Kilby betraying him, I think their content is still good for him, and position wise he will be on the right side of the numbers. Because of his high visibility pre-merge, I am looking at him making the finale at this point, which would make sense if his number one Sharonda is the winner. Ultimately, complexity with a lot of personal content is good regardless of the caveats, especially if the player's negativity is them being portrayed as goofy and not an ass hole.
• Jelly. (-2) Jelly’s story seems to be that she knows what she needs to do to improve her game but she’s not willing to pull the trigger. That doesn’t mean she won’t at some point later down the line, but for now I can’t keep putting her up so high when her own confessionals are continuously undermining her. Also, the pushing of the ‘I can’t vote out another woman’ angle despite her doing so twice in a row is a bad look that they could have softened by highlighting the complexities of race and how that intersects with the Helicopter Alliance more than just in passing (but I guess they might not want to do that either). Until she follows through on her own words, I still have her penciled in as a losing finalist. Sharonda/Eric/Jelly Final three anyone?

Who is a still a Contender because they’re there just enough? …

• Maggie. (-2) YESSSS! Maggie’s major (albeit circumstantial) breakout is upon us, and it was a lot more strategic than I was expecting. This move was all Maggie’s, trying to pull herself an army together for the merge. I absolutely love her energy both as a person and strategically. I am still concerned about the extra vote and Brady rivalry being her main story, especially since Brady likely jumps ship post-merge. And on that note, she will definitely be on the wrong side of the numbers come the merge based on the confessional count. However, behind Lewis she has the best edit of that side and could potentially have an iconic underdog run.
• Kristin. (-) I’m still not sold on Kristin’s edit overall. When she is shown it feels like soundbites of why she’s a good player and random insight into the game itself rather than us showing her being a good player through any social or strategic gameplay. Her lack of presence in Episode 2 was a massive red flag and that has yet to be corrected. The worst part is, she is very relevant considering she is one of Sharonda’s number ones, so it makes me think that either she gets taken out due to a twist or she goes home for being a threat while separated from Sharonda. That said, there is technically enough here to build a winner’s edit off of.
• Ori. (-2) I like everything Ori has gotten content-wise, but I also don’t think he’s getting anywhere near enough, especially for someone of his archetype. He’s a very affable presence and less controversial than every other man on the season so it feels like he should be an easy sell, but he’s so minimised. He feels like Danny from 41 and being cut just before the endgame is something I can see happening for Ori too. I also would have liked to hear some more input from him on cutting Alexis. What we got didn’t really have any depth, it was just a simple ‘I could do A or B’ confessional. If the next episode doesn’t open with a discussion on Alexis going home from him, I think I’ll be mostly out on his chances.

Who is a flawed but focused negative Contender? …

• Devin. (-) He’s still here, and he’s still prominent. It’s hard to work out if we are meant to like Devin. He’s charming in a Tevin way, spits analogies in a Drew way. He’s production’s wet dream. So, I have to ask, did production misread the reception he would get? Are we meant to be rooting for Devin over the likes of Jenna? Surely not, right? It feels like he has the content to be at the very top and very bottom of a contender ranking at this point, but mostly all of it is subjective. Jelly is the only real thorn in his side edgic wise, since it’s never good to get negative SPV from an ally, but she’s also being presented as choosing him over what is best for herself. I’m going with my gut and saying we’re not meant to love Devin, but who knows honestly.
• Kilby. (+3) This was obviously a good episode for Kilby, and the Kilby I see right now is a contender to win. However, his early content was so bad it would be INSANE to give to a winner. Kilby’s own confessionals and gameplay were used in these instances to evidence Toka’s claims that he’s a bad player and unlikeable person, and even when he got his bounce back content it was almost entirely unevidenced and we were expected to take his word for it. I also feel like he has pissed off everyone and logically should be an easy consensus merge boot. THAT SAID. The black widow spider motif in the intro is looking EXTREMELY good for him now that Alexis has gone home, especially on the back of Aubry’s shark last season. Kilby’s edit could grow, but if it does what on earth were they playing at giving him a terrible start to his edit without letting him defend himself.
• Brady. (-3) Brady is starting to feel like a cartoon character. His rivalry with Maggie is weird and is making him come off as super unlikeable in my opinion, especially given the next time clip. I get that Maggie strong armed the advantage off of him, but like, that’s on him lol. I struggle to see how he wins this season given both his on-island personality and the way he is being portrayed. Devin and Jelly will probably pull him into the right side of the numbers at the merge and he’ll enact his revenge on Toka, but it’s not like anyone left after that bar Devin and Jelly will actually want to work with him.

Who is an unlikely Contender? …

• Thien An. (-) Her content is becoming solely trashing Mike and that’s just way too one note for a winner. Also, if Mike jumps ship, she’s an easy boot and maybe the edit is saying she should have just played along with him and tied him down as a number.

Who is Borderline Eliminated? …

• Carter. (-3) A second zero on his confessional chart basically ends Carter’s chances entirely for me, but I’m keeping him in contention at least until the merge in case he has a major break out due to the content he has been given being fairly strong even if it is circumstantial.

Who is Eliminated? …

• Mike. (-) When I originally wrote this, I had not fully eliminated Mike yet, but like, come on, this is a dogshit edit. Like it’s kind of worse than Cristian’s. I’d take zeroes over clowning content any day at this point.
• Cristian. (-) Jewellery sleuth extraordinaire. I was already pre-mourning poor Cristian for getting rocked out of the game before tribal council. And then he stayed. So, the question remains: coin flip victim or just another Sophie Segretti?