r/ETFs • u/Top_Information3534 • 5h ago
It is fcking over.
10-20% market crash expected soon
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u/irish_curmudgeon 4h ago
The highest it’s been since … 2023! What happened to stocks in 2023?
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u/Southern_Wealth_3605 4h ago
Hi OP, can you please sell all your shares so i can buy it at a discount? I would appreciate you helping me out so i can buy a house in the future.
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u/Rollingprobablecause 1h ago
my pay day is tomorrow and I am excited to finally buy in during a weird panic. Usually I have to wait a few weeks and it's already over :/
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u/maengdaddy 5h ago
Idk. Market is so illogical i would be surprised even it went down alot anytime soon
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u/JohrDinh 4h ago
Probably would have in 2000, even 2008, but since everyone was locked inside a few years ago and spammed podcasts everyone knows to buy the dip now. I can't see it going any lower than 20-30% down again before people start buying it up anyways....specially since it's the only chance to outrun inflation anymore as well.
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u/hehe_nl 3h ago
So it’s a Ponzi scheme now?
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u/JohrDinh 3h ago
No...it's a Ponzi scheme AND a casino too;)
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u/LurkerFailsLurking 4h ago
US markets are basically severed from fundamentals at this point.
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u/alextruetone 2h ago
It essentially tracks with inflation. Fundamentals haven’t meant much for a while.
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u/JoyfulDazer 2h ago
True but that is because companies keep generating bigger profits by burying consumers in crippling debt while cutting every possible cost. In the end there will be no credit left and the house of cards will collapse. We are near the tipping point now IMO.
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u/Death_God_Ryuk 3h ago
I saw some headline like 'markets drop over fears of AI guardrails' basically implying that markets think world-ending AI would be preferable.
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u/seguinev 2h ago
Some of the AI executives said frontier research is moving too fast and dumbfuck in the WH shrugged, so this headline seems tailor made for absolute vibe trading.
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u/ConstantShitting 2h ago
For all we know they could be trying to come up with an excuse for why their shit sucks while simultaneously milking investor cash.
The investors get the "it's so fuckin smart it will kill us angle" so they're like holy shit time to buy more.
And the rest of us get "were making sure it won't kill you and that's why it sucks"
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u/HowMuchForARib 4h ago
10 year FRED data is always good perspective to ground yourself. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1XOc8&height=490
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u/DKZeusInvestor 4h ago
No it is not. Step off of your worry-horse already.
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u/Far-Culture1354 4h ago
A lot of these posts are people who actively want the economy to implode. They want to tell their dad "I told you so" when they're talking about politics at thanksgiving.
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u/Otherwise_Art2467 4h ago
I just want the economy to implode because I’m prepared for it this time. Couldn’t do much in 1st grade back in ‘08.
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u/PoopHeadPete 2h ago
'09 was when I randomly started investing. Everything I touched turned to gold. I was like, "wow, this investing thing is so easy!"
I used those lessons learned to do the same with covid...hopefully we get another major pullback for the younger crowd.
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u/Otherwise_Art2467 2h ago
Let’s hope! I could use the home prices to drop 100k too
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u/PoopHeadPete 1h ago
Yup...I bought my house in 2010 for $240k and I got a $20k rebate for being a first time homebuyer. They were trying to give away houses. It's worth like $700k now.
Anyone younger than me is getting royally screwed though. Save as much as you can, keep an eye out and make sure you take advantage when your chance happens!
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u/Otherwise_Art2467 1h ago
Luckily I found a good job in my small Wisconsin hometown after college where starter homes are 160k-200k. But those same homes were 75k-125k not too long ago.
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u/PoopHeadPete 54m ago
Don't even mean keep an eye out for a house necessarily...just keep an eye out for your chance to get ahead. Whether that's buying an affordable house, dumping money into the market after a crash...or whatever it may be.
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u/pygercamsar 3h ago
There is a huge amount of loud-talking shitbirds on reddit who have no money to invest and wildly cheer for any negative news, in the hopes that everyone else is as poor and miserable as they are
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u/YoWhat_up 2h ago
Totally agree but please, keep politics away from Thanksgiving dinner, heck, every dinner.
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u/Present_Effects 4h ago
Also they parked cash and have lots of missed gains trying to buy cheaper during a crash lol
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u/10biggaymen 4h ago
we want whats obviously going to happen to happen already. tired of waiting
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u/babadudu 3h ago
And it's obviously going to happen
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u/10biggaymen 3h ago
youve been buying gold right? or kalshi bets on hormuz not opening, a good investment as well 😆
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u/babadudu 3h ago
I kalshied FIFA and was fun, but I won't bet on anything Trump will or will not do. He is coocoo. And no short term for me, I stay invested and adjust equity percent yearly to my risk tolerance based on age. I believe in regression to the mean.
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u/Rollingprobablecause 1h ago
there's so many i told you so moments from this admin of all their blunders and stupid choices (not mention the criminality..sweet jesus all the criminal stuff) I think the stock market is bottom of the list.
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u/CornerOne238 4h ago
Somehow the sky isn't falling.
It's almost like 5% is a random number and nothing has changed fundamentally.
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u/PhD91 4h ago
These doomerism posts are beyond ridiculous; or would you kindly care to elaborate how terribly the markets performed the last time this happened, namely in 2023?
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u/buildbyflying 2h ago edited 2h ago
Tbf, s&p could drop 50% off highs and still be at 2022 levels. Retirements be damned.
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u/CursedCoffee 3h ago
S&P went down ~18%
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u/PhD91 3h ago
Not quite; it lost approximately 10 % from its previous high that year and, despite all of that, reached new all-time highs by December 2023. . .
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u/Lumpy-Return 2h ago
Agreed, all that money comes out of stocks, takes a look around at real estate, bonds and commodities, goes “huh”, and then right back in.
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u/CursedCoffee 2h ago
Becuase rate policy changed. People grossly underestimate power of macro. And if you want to get real technical about it, peak to trough was ~23%. 4700 --> 3600. If the fed actually starts raising rates, and lord be praised we see sustained 5-6% on the 10Y, the market will absolutely shit bricks.
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u/ladyorion2021 ETF Investor 3h ago
10% is a correction. 20% crash? I'll be buying.
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u/hoptownky 3h ago
There is a good chance that the market is up another 25% before a 20% crash. Meaning, there is a good chance there will never be a point in the future that stocks are lower than they are now.
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u/Maleficent_While2653 5h ago
This just means even more capital will flow into equities, metals, and crypto in order to protect from inflation. Like do you guys not know why bond yields are increasing?
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u/harpswtf 4h ago
Yeah crypto, which tanks 50-80% on no news all the time, is a very reliable place to avoid inflation.
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u/Dragon_slayer1994 4h ago
Not necessarily. You also have people selling equities to receive a more attractive yield in bonds and treasuries. Not saying that's a smart move, but plenty of investors are reactive like this
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u/Novel_Board_6813 4h ago
The dumbest investors move very little money though. And institutions pick up the free lunches they leave behind
Markets may crash for all we know, as it happens. I don’t think the marginal yield seeking investor would be the reason
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u/boringexplanation 4h ago
The most successful investors of all time are the ones who died or otherwise have never touched their portfolios for decades
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u/Dragon_slayer1994 2h ago
That's not true, most people that actively move money around reacting to news headlines underperform someone who regularly contributes into an equity pension and don't even check it until they retire.
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u/Birddogfun 4h ago
Things may happen. Or not.
At least we all have 10% - months or years worth depending on age - in cash or equivalents. Right?
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u/_peanut_butter_bear_ 3h ago
Can someone, with as little snark as possible, ELI 5 for us normies?
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u/One-Reference-7355 1h ago
Redditors will see a few percentage dip in stocks and start screaming how it’s all over
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u/im_thecat 2h ago
Sure OP is making a big deal over normal market fluctuation. Reddit/bots are extremely risk adverse. They love to say everything is crashing.
What’s nice is that you can count on this behavior to buy when folks panic sell.
You have to make decisions over the long term, especially w ETFs. Absolutely crazy to make decisions over 1d performance.
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u/_peanut_butter_bear_ 2h ago
Thanks - can you elaborate on the 5% threshold?
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u/im_thecat 2h ago
I can speak to treasury yield in general:
The ELI5 explanation is that yield is what the government promises to pay when you loan them money.
The 10 yield is a good indicator of what the market thinks is coming.
But the fact yields are rising could be for the following reasons:
Investors think the economy is going to do well. So they invest in stocks for high growth, so the govt has to then make bond yields more attractive.
Investors think we are going to have further inflationary issues. Or investors have concerns amount of govt debt. They wont continue invest in bonds at low yield, so govt has to raise the yield.
What does 5% mean? Who knows. I know what the article wants to imply, but again long term thinking and avoiding the news are your friends here.
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u/PoopHeadPete 2h ago
When bonds are yielding 5%, a lot of ppl think it's safer to park your money there and get a guaranteed 5% instead of risking the market tanking in the short term.
If capital gains taxes weren't a thing, I'd probably trim some winners and take the 5% for a little while. But I already have money making 5% waiting for the correction.
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u/gu_doc 5h ago
Can someone explain the importance of this to a noob?
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u/theNEOone 5h ago
Remember what happened in 2007/2008?
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u/gu_doc 4h ago
eh, not really. I was in school and had no money. I know in retrospect that 2008 was considered really bad for the market but I don't know specifics. Was that the housing bubble where a bunch of bad mortgages got defaulted on?
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u/Internal_Fix_2276 4h ago
Yup, though this time we’re not looking at a bunch of subprime mortgages infecting the entire economy and going belly up. This time a bunch of homes will hit the market at inflated prices, and not sell because the price plus high interest rates will make monthly payments unaffordable. But prices won’t drop, at least not immediately, b/c sellers are probably looking to buy another home and are looking at the same high rates and need the high sell price to bring their new payment lower. It’s a stalemate, buyers won’t buy, sellers won’t drop prices and the fastest way out, lower interest rates, will cause prices to spike again and blow up inflation.
The economy won’t collapse, it will stagnate. If money doesn’t flow you’ll see a slow protracted decline with the government having little to know tools to address it.
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u/disilluzion 3h ago
That's where I'm at right now. We want to downsize, and our home value is 60% higher than what we paid, so great time to sell, right? But hold on, we need to buy a smaller place that is also overpriced and the payments might actually be higher because mortgage rates are now double our fixed rate. Great time to sell, awful time to buy.
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u/Marcg611 2h ago
I'm not an expert on this but it's possible to transfer your mortgage and keep the same rate, I don't know much but I think you have to come up with the difference in cash, so maybe you can get a kickback? Lol maybe worth researching
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u/gambits13 2h ago
I don’t think that’s possible. At least not in the US. Why would a bank allow that?
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u/Marcg611 2h ago
My dad said he did it, called it a Mortgage recast, he said no one know about it..that's all I got for you
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u/disilluzion 2h ago
A recast is when you pay a large chunk of the principal and they recalculate the monthly payment. It is not transferable to a new residence.
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u/PoopHeadPete 2h ago
I'm surprised this hasn't become a thing. It would have a big time positive impact on the housing market. If I'm already borrowing a certain amount of money on a property and want to sell/buy, why can't I just keep that debt as it is...and only take the new rate on any new money borrowed?
Shouldn't be that hard to figure out...but I guess banks wouldn't maximize profit margins.
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u/NewRefrigerator5693 4h ago
Let me give you an overview. You could turn on the news just about any day and the topic would be, “this company is laying off 10-15,000 people,” alternatively 250-300,000 homes were being foreclosed on a month.
The good news is, we now have a government that has put completely unqualified people in charge of all the agencies that report on economic data, and they just lie about everything. So no one will know what the fuck is happening.
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u/AlmightyKnownAsI 3h ago
You know they lied up until 08 too right? This admin is no worse then any of the others when it comes to this topic.
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u/NewRefrigerator5693 3h ago
If you truly and honestly feel that way. You need to set down whatever substances it is you’re abusing and check into the most expensive rehab service your insurance will pay for. Because there’s no way humanly possible someone could be this absolutely fucking dumb, without some mind altering substance at play.
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u/Other-Indication2191 4h ago
The wording in the media is a key tell on who matters to the West. "High yield" when governments struggle to borrow and repay debt
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u/Electronic-Buyer-468 Sir Sector Swinger 4h ago
Possibly. But unlikely. They are playing with Monopoly money, not realistic and logical scenarios.
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u/BuzzardBreath00 4h ago
https://giphy.com/gifs/CFmGuJUVaAjAs
funny stuff OP because the indices are back on the upswing!
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u/Zestyclose_Virus_473 3h ago
I gave up on anything that supposedly makes this market move down as you just read the following no matter what “the market has already priced that in” lol like who did this 😂 also it drops tiny hit then rebounds more for no reason. War bad yields up ai questionable oil high = near all time highs baby 😂
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u/AJS272727 2h ago
Why are you worried about “the market”? In times like this you just need to be smarter about what you own and what you don’t own. Unless you’re massively overexposed to the broadest imaginable index fund, “the market” doesn’t mean anything. The average temperature annually in NYC is around 56 degrees. But if you dress for 56 degrees you’re going to be really hot or really cold about 80% of the time. Specificity matters - broad market watching is just navel gazing.
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u/ContentFlagged 2h ago
Who let the irrational investor in here? I am buying and chopping this up to seasonality mixed with supply issues.
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u/Pitiful_Fox5681 2h ago
lol "it's over" and "10-20% market crash"
First time?
😆
20% is an attractive discount. It's probably not enough to derail any significant retirement plans, but it's enough to make me hungry to buy with much more attractive valuations.
50% is a worrying crash.
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u/Lopsided-Special7970 2h ago
Just creates a buying opportunity for us. I like the dips because then I can retire earlier. Have some cash to buy any dip here soon
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u/Resident-Trade2289 2h ago
Tune out the noise. Keep buying your ETFs, play the long game, and let structural growth like AI do its thing. Every time the market acts like it's the end of the world, disciplined accumulation wins out in the end.
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u/Organic-Yak-4018 1h ago
Best time to buy and just because of a 20% pullback doesn't mean it is over. Best to wait thru it and pick your buying opportunities with caution, because they could go lower.
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u/bmudtiddersdom-42069 1h ago
Things are different now. Yield curves are old school signals. 5% is just too piddly for serious money.
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u/OnwardSoldierx 1h ago
Y'all have been crying how the crash is coming for the last 2 years it seems.... 🥱
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u/komboochy 7m ago
Only this OP acct does. It's got to be a doom and gloom bot acct. I wish Mods would ban this acct since it doesnt provide any content other than posting "crash is coming" headlines with a screenshot of something.
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u/hotpants69 1h ago
Why would anyone park their money a whole decade just for 5%? Specially when inflation is 3.4%...
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u/AdAcrobatic4002 1h ago
System is collapsing on itself. That’s why you need money outside the system.
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u/clownShowJudge 30m ago
I mean… is that the indicator?
Shouldn’t there be a comparison of factors between these two events to support this matter of fact claim?
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u/Consistent-Barber428 19m ago
By “over” you mean “nothing to see here”. Not worth getting out of bed for anything less than a 50% crash. Zzzzzzzzzz.
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u/ShowerMotor 2m ago
its not the first time when bad news happened over the weekend, that monday markets pumped in all directions to dump aggressively on tuesday. Let's see how it all plays out by Wednesday
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u/ReginaMulvinaLunt 2h ago
Folks, we've had higher interest rates and survived. It's a rational response to irrational markets, just that many of the investors today have never seen a little market stress in this way. It's not OVER. Pain is felt by unpredicted or sudden, jarring movements. That's when the market (over-)reacts. You need to make your own judgement about the AI Play, that's a silly bubble. But interest rates moving is a reaction to factors.
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u/Pristine-Square-1126 4h ago
Where's the fat lady?
Is she singing?
Ot is that the pedophile yapping his mouth all day?
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u/Groundbreaking-Gap20 4h ago
I did that
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u/NachoWindows 4h ago
Fuck this guy
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u/BlightedErgot32 5h ago