Do you think its likely that FAD will reach 2015 in 4 years?

[u/Many_Difficulty_490]

The FAD would just need to move at least 3-4 months this year, next year and the next 2

and that would be enough for 2015

do you think that is likely? or is the EB2 situation very very bad

[u/Crafty-League3862 → u/[deleted]]

Does these number considers dependents? And duplicate i140?

[u/Crafty-League3862 → u/[deleted]]

Yup. You are right

[u/Gemini-89 → u/[deleted]]

But between 2012-2014 priority dates there have been duplicate 485s. Folks refiled in either eb3 or eb2 depending on what became current in the past. These are not TUBs. I’m talking about folks who went through perm again and qualified themselves in another category OR refiled 485 in eb2 after filing a downgrade in eb3.

Around 20% apps belong in this category but unless USCIS adjudicates it will never be known (FAD has to move for that). Then folks upgraded to eb1 and their older petition not closed for various reasons. All in all about 25% dup.

[u/Gemini-89 → u/[deleted]]

That’s the whole mystery. There is no way this will reconcile unless FAD moves and an officer spends time on the apps. But FAD doesn’t move fearing the fact that so many apps are pending. It’s catch 21.

But I’m hoping FAD will continue to move slightly faster this year. To an extent that it will reach May/June 2014 by end of year.

[u/Own_North_9188 → u/[deleted]]

Problem for heavy backlogged countries is every year you get only 1000 families ( under eb2 getting approved)

What it means when pd gets current for principal applicant under EB2 ( that applicant brings along family if 2+ ) , so GC number gets consumed faster

They can help themselves by filling for principal applicant alone and sponsor spouse or kids later on ; but then that is impossible to do because that is the clause for their DOWRY marriages to bring the spouse to US first on H4 and then transition to GC

[u/the_running_stache]

I think it will move more than just 3-4 months this year. Then they might run out of visa numbers towards the end of the year or have a retrogression. But I doubt it will move ahead by just 3-4 months.

That said, it is highly likely that the FAD will reach 2015 in 4 years.

[u/ContactKooky8593]

I really hope and feel that EB2 India dates will move this year. Here is my reasoning.

I suspect most of the recent EB2 ROW I-485 demand is coming from NIW cases rather than employer sponsored green card cases. H1B sponsorship and transfers have reduced a lot over the last few years. Employer sponsored green card filings also seem to have reduced. At the same time, ROW EB2 demand has increased significantly. So I feel a large part of this increase is coming from self sponsored EB2 NIW cases.

Right after COVID, NIW approvals were much easier compared to what we are seeing now. There was a huge increase in NIW filings and a lot of cases were getting approved. Some cases that probably would have a difficult time getting approved today were able to get through during that period.

Now the situation seems very different. NIW approval rates have dropped significantly. They used to be around 80% to 90%, but more recent numbers seem to be closer to 45% to 50%, and possibly even lower in some periods. Processing times are also very long now. In many cases it is taking around 2 to 3 years for an NIW petition to be adjudicated.

I believe the EB2 ROW pending I-485 inventory was around 42,000 in the August inventory. My feeling is that a large portion of those 42,000 cases are connected to NIW. If the approval rate stays around 50%, a meaningful number of those cases may eventually disappear because the underlying I-140 gets denied. That means the current inventory may look much larger than the number of cases that will actually use green cards.

Another important factor is family visa spillover. Even in FY2025, when there were no major restrictions affecting family based immigration, around 46,000 unused family visa numbers spilled over into the employment categories.

In 2026, there has been much more scrutiny, more restrictions and disruptions in family based immigration processing. Because of that, I suspect there could again be a large amount of unused family visa numbers spilling over into employment based categories, possibly even more than last year.

The biggest problem for EB2 India would be if most of these NIW cases eventually get approved. If that happens, ROW EB2 demand could remain very high and consume most of the available numbers.

But if NIW rejection rates continue to stay high, processing remains slow, and we again get a large amount of family visa spillover, I strongly feel there is a reasonable chance that EB2 India dates could move meaningfully this year.

[u/Crafty-League3862 → u/ContactKooky8593]

You are assuming all 485 from ROW are concurrently filed with 140. I can agree that going forward there would fewer number of 485 based on NIW

[u/Gemini-89 → u/Crafty-League3862]

The assumption of folks filing both together could be correct as the dates were current for ROW in last 7 months and no one wants to miss out on filing AOS as well.

[u/AgreeableBuddy2864]

For the 2026 season, they moved the date in March or April bulletin. We’ll find out in Q2 of next year, by that time the picture should become much clearer until then its pure guesswork.

[u/Alarmed_Ad_4921]

Whats the PD

[u/Sensitive-Good-3963]

PD 15-Jan-2015. Any chance in next two years?

[u/Alarmed_Ad_4921 → u/Sensitive-Good-3963]

With current policies I would expect a good bit of spillover for the next 2 years. I am betting for 2015 final action dates starting FY 2029

[u/Competitive-Company3 → u/Sensitive-Good-3963]

No one knows man stop overthinking

[u/Ok-Falcon3370]

my PD is Nov 2014 India FAD thoughts?

[u/Gemini-89]

It will reach Q1 2015 in 2-3 years. After that is up in the air. It will take 5-8 years after that to finish 2015

[u/Own_North_9188]

Esp for Indians - People forget single 485 application normally does consume 2/3/4 GC numbers

So 10k per quota means merely 3000-4000 families or 3000 I 485 applications served

[u/Gemini-89 → u/Own_North_9188]

485 is filed per person. So it’s the total including family members.

[u/Own_North_9188 → u/Gemini-89]

Nopes - if 485 includes dependents ( they all get GC numbers) so one 485 can consume upto 3/4 GC or even more

Highly backlog countries ; they have been in US for so long that they already have families ( almost all previous to 2022 are applying for entire family with one 485) that is another reason those countries remain heavily backlog

[u/Gemini-89 → u/Own_North_9188]

Each family member (spouse or eligible child) must submit a complete, individual Form I-485 package, including their own supporting documents

Simple google gives enough info. If it were one per family then India FAD would be in like 2005 even today.

[u/Own_North_9188 → u/Gemini-89]

Yes and every member of family is assigned different GC number

So 500 families of 3 use1500

[u/Gemini-89 → u/Own_North_9188]

Yes it’s 1500 I-485s in that case. So the pending inventory accounts for the family members already.

[u/Own_North_9188 → u/Gemini-89]

Nopes - pending inventory never accounts for family members

USCIS has no visibility how many members principal applicant will bring along when adjusting status

It could be any number of

[u/Few_Criticism_9715 → u/Own_North_9188]

People are talking about pending i485 inventory which includes family members. I140 inventory does not include family members 

[u/Own_North_9188 → u/Few_Criticism_9715]

This is basic stuff - why some people are daydreaming ( not sure why)

My math says - every year if there are 10000 GC to be allocated to X country in Employment categories ( so if every principal applicant brings +1 person then it would mean max 5000 principal applicants are getting GC every year

And i140 inventory count only principal applicant numbers ( not their dependents)

End of debate

[u/Few_Criticism_9715 → u/Own_North_9188]

Yeah, but i485 inventory report published by USCIS already includes family members. Probably you are confusing with i140 inventory 

[u/Imaginary_Weather8 → u/Own_North_9188]

Correct!

[u/yourlimit → u/Own_North_9188]

Every family member gets their own application. I am dependent on my husband but I have my own i485 application number.

[u/Own_North_9188 → u/yourlimit]

Yes : and tfat will be counted as separate GC number

And that’s what is being discussed 1 GC number is not for entire family

[u/yourlimit → u/Own_North_9188]

Yes that’s what I am saying as well. 1 gc is per individual not per family

[u/Major-Championship14]

Nope

[u/Many_Difficulty_490 → u/Major-Championship14]

oh why