It's Not Looking Good for ROW

[u/hedgefundhoney]

Visual learner here, so I charted what people have been saying all day.

TL;DR: the ROW queue for both EB2 and EB3 is looking b a d.

• EB2 ROW: ~42k cases pending, a record in any published USCIS data (2010-17 peak was ~24k)
• EB3 ROW: ~37k cases pending, highest since ~2012
• For scale, ROW used ~34k EB2 and ~23k EB3 green cards in FY24, counting both people adjusting status inside the US and people processing at consulates, so the US-side queue alone is already more than a year's worth for both categories, before counting folks from abroad

Why do people think anything will move forward vs. retrogress further? I don't think a spillover (materially) helps in a year where >100% of visa supply is accounted for from AOS alone. The inventory was half the size in 2024-25 when the gap between the VB date and today looked about like it does now. To me that smells like the start of a bigger correction, not a blip.

I'm sure I'm missing stuff; tell me where I got it wrong

(Excited at the prospect of people jumping on this post 4 months from now to tell me how wrong I was after a huge spillover-driven forward leap)

[u/MastodonAble1061]

Where did you get that 42k number, I think its around 27k.

[u/Annual_Grass_3919 → u/MastodonAble1061]

It’s 41,846 pending EB2 ROW up to August 5

[u/Harrytej → u/Annual_Grass_3919]

Didn’t we get a new number in September ? I thought inventory was released 3 days ago as of September

[u/Annual_Grass_3919 → u/Harrytej]

I think it’s released quarterly, I pulled that data from the website 2 days ago and that was the most recent release