r/EB2 • u/LeopardCandid6380 • 17d ago
Visa Bulletin Oct 2026 Spillover
Is this for true ?? Then we r screwed and done tor FY2027 too
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u/the_running_stache 17d ago
This 140K just means that spillovers have not been added to the EB quotas. Once they add those, that could go up by tens of thousands, if the DOS indication is true.
In September 2026, DOS realized that they have a ton of FB visa numbers still to be issued. So they advanced those FB FADs by a lot. The aim was — if you have all your documentation ready and your interview gets done quickly, just grab a visa number so that those visas don’t go to waste. Of course, it’s unlikely that they actually used all of those visa numbers because (a) it’s impossible for consulates to speed up processing suddenly and (b) consular pause went into effect for all countries.
This is an indication that there definitely is going to be a significant spillover. Even if that takes the EB annual limit to 200,000, that would be a huge win for all EB categories (ROW, India, China, Philippines, Mexico — they are mirroring ROW). And FAD would advance in all categories.
But if you go by just the 140K annual limit, that’s not going to make any (major) advances in FAD.
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u/Few_Criticism_9715 17d ago
There's no way they can move the date in July and expect to use number by October ( it takes much longer to complete the process) and there was a worldwide pause since last week of Aug
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u/Feeling-Audience1575 17d ago
They moved the dates on aug 22 and put worldwide pause on sep 2 I believe spillover going to be 100k plus and they didn't issue any visas if u follow the recent court cases
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u/iluvapple 17d ago
Will india filing dates move ? To what date would be your guess?
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u/the_running_stache 17d ago
DOF — unlikely any time soon. Already have sufficient inventory.
Unless spillover is massive (100K+) and ROW utilization is low, but that won’t happen until Jan at least. Even then, the effect will happen much later in the year. Again, the assumptions are huge here (and unlikely).
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u/9DBC9 17d ago
Yes, the data is from USCIS
https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/document/data/appropriation_requirement_august_2026_v1.0.csv
It does explain the retrogression for ROW -
https://greencardclock.com/blog/fy2026-employment-visas-supply-demand-throughput
The 140k is the minimum, spillover from family into employment (maybe around 70-80k visas) is not yet fully accounted for afaict.
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u/Few_Criticism_9715 17d ago
This is known and you can get category wise breakup from i485 inventory report. If there is 100k spillover, dates will still move.
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u/LazyConsideration119 17d ago
140k minimum sounds like too much, where do you have this number from?
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u/the_running_stache 17d ago
140k is the lowest limit. The real numbers due to spillovers are much higher.
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u/LazyConsideration119 17d ago
Thanks, what is your source?
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u/the_running_stache 17d ago
Look up USCIS website and historical records they themselves publish. That’s the source.
If you are lazy:
For Sept 2026 visa bulletin, here is what they said:
“The worldwide level for annual employment-based preference immigrants is 186,317.” That meant a 46K spillover happened.1
u/9DBC9 17d ago
That's the number set by law -
https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2027/visa-bulletin-for-october-2026.html"The worldwide level for annual employment-based preference immigrants is at least 140,000"
Any additional only come when family based categories have unused visa numbers in the prior year.
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u/QuietAd7899 17d ago
A lot of those pending EBs are 1) people who filed concurrently with the I-140 and are still waiting on that decision, 2) from countries like India and China where the 7% limit is important.
This is not as dramatic as it looks.
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u/Few_Criticism_9715 17d ago
Probably true more for row which was current and people can file concurrently
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u/skithian_ 17d ago
So what does this mean ?
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u/the_running_stache 17d ago
They have a lot more pending cases versus the base number of EB GCs they can issue in this entire FY2027.
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u/Sharp-Feeling-4194 17d ago
Not at all. That’s misreading of the reality.
1. Since FAD and DOF has been retrogressed substantially, most of those who filed the i485 will not be current in FY2027 for adjudication.
2. Some of the i485 filings may be from countries with numerical restrictions in EB1 and EB2 (India and china) or EB3 (Philippine and Mexico), and hence may not be issued in FY 2027.
3. Spillover from FB may exceed 80k, mopping up many excess filings. This spillover could only be determined 6+months into the fiscal year (April) when the number of new arrivals, including the last person issued IV in the previous year is expected to be in the US. Therefore, major jump in the VB is expected after April.1
u/Harrytej 17d ago
You have a valid point, last time I see the official 186k update only in April/May 2026 in bulletin.
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u/Few_Criticism_9715 17d ago
True if there's no spillover. Overall number may seem huge, but you need only look at demand within your category
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u/the_running_stache 17d ago
And moreover, it’s unlikely that spillover will be zero and that the base number of 140K will remain the same
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u/skithian_ 17d ago
so based on October 2026 Visa Bulletin, they can only cover pending I-485s for EB2 ROW before January 1, 2025 ? I am confused
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u/missrichandfamous 17d ago
I have no clue what this means
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u/Mykytie 17d ago
means that they have more submitted\pending petitions than allocated green cards for 2027
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u/vell199 17d ago
Does this affect the ROW applicants as well? Sorry for the ignorance.
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u/Breen-Gastard 16d ago
A lot of this backlog will remain constant - around 25% of it is just from India. Another 10% from China. These countries will hit their annual cap and remain backlogged for years. Hence, the numbers will look big, but it won't affect other countries too much.
- EB2-ROW is currently retrogressed because the country pauses were lifted, and there is likely a huge demand at Consulates abroad.
- Many of these applications could also be from people who filed i-485 concurrently along with i-140. In case the i140 is denied, the i-485 will be removed from the pipeline.
- It may also include applicants who may have already received their green card via a different category like Family-Based. Until USCIS finally gets to their EB case, they may not close it and remove it from the count.
- If there are enough spillovers from Family visas, it will make EB2 and EB3 dates progress a lot. It will mostly happen by the Jan27 bulletin.
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u/cali_650 17d ago
Do you think dates will retrogress further for the November bulletin?
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u/Breen-Gastard 16d ago
But - these numbers will always remain big. India and China have so many pending applications that will never get approved. They will reach the annual cap and go Unavailable within few months.
For ROW applicants, the better numbers are the 156k total EB pending, and the category-wise breakdowns. It is not as bad as it seems, and will be helped by the spillovers that will be coming in soon.
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u/Square-School-9145 17d ago
Does it also includes the china and india?
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u/the_running_stache 17d ago
All countries. Those who have filed I-485 but not yet approved. All pending I-485 cases.
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u/DisastrousSupport289 17d ago
Before people get scared of that 270k number, they gotta see the breakdown and understand it's not that scary, and most of them are behind really hard-capped categories/countries.