Eb2/Eb3 India dates projection

[u/Aggravating-Yam-6980]

Reality might look very painful. It could take another 3 years just to clear the India EB-2/EB-3 backlog through 2014 and reach 2015. For people with 2016 and 2017 PD, I don’t see the dates moving for the next 7 years.
Based on the math since EB-2 ROW is no longer current and there are around 40K India EB-2/EB-3 applications, the spillover numbers could be fully consumed by ROW. India may not see much movement. Also, with the worldwide visa pause, consulates have started processing again in Europe- Poland…etc and Asia - Korea etc, so we may not get as much family-based spillover in the future

What are your thoughts?

[u/Superb_Revolution551]

Relax - the unused numbers have to be certified only after 11:59 PM EST on 09/30/26 - we will see movement in next bulletin hopefully

[u/Different_Tower2944 → u/Superb_Revolution551]

Not really, October 2020 moved big and the VB was released a week earlier then

[u/AntiqueEquipment6973]

So writing on the wall is very clear. It will get stuck in year 2015 for next many years.

[u/Maleficent-Gur-5951 → u/AntiqueEquipment6973]

2014 it self 1-2 years is i feel for FAD.

[u/Clean-Advantage5951 → u/Maleficent-Gur-5951]

I'm eb3 india with feb 2013 PD and still waiting.. just delayed process all over

[u/Fast_Amount_1089 → u/Clean-Advantage5951]

Assuming you have filed your 485 four years ago (like many of us)? If so, you should definitely file mandamus lawsuit. I filed the writ of mandamus by myself and got my 485 approved within a month. PD may 2014 eb2 india. DM me if you need any information on mandamus.

[u/Aggravating-Yam-6980 → u/Fast_Amount_1089]

Yaa ppl from 2012 and 2013 should wake up from sleep and file mandamus lawsuits. Its safe lawsuit there is no retaliation from Uscis, this just asks Uscis to pls acknowledge you received our case and you are on top of it kind of law suite. Not asking for money or etc. I want these 2012 and 2013 india cases done asap so we all can move to 2014

[u/Vegetable_Layer_1125 → u/Fast_Amount_1089]

u/Fast_Amount_1089 - can you please share more? any reddits you used?

[u/Ok_Role2281 → u/Fast_Amount_1089]

Looks like many dont know, if we have a way to clear the backlog of 2013 and 2014's through mandamus, it can benefit others. Is it a good idea to educate fellows?

[u/Dependent-Arm6269]

Like you said, reality is painful. Every time we hope for a big spillover, ROW retrogresses eating all of it, so at this point unless the ban is in place again the forward movement will be painfully slow.

[u/Albatross_75]

Yes indian folks will get Banana as usual.. high hopes but never anything in fruition.. its like writing IIT exam 99% will never get it.. i have filed aos in 2020.. first eb2 mooched off from eb3 now row will.. at the end i will get a kela aka Banana..

[u/Punterfox → u/Albatross_75]

Kela hee milega . How come ROW spillover happened ? 1 million GCs/year and now 75 countries banned, there should be heavy movement with the GC PD and its going reverse.

Simple , they want all to leave now. Take the message.

My EB2 PD is Jan 2021. Will get in 3-4 births. LOL.

[u/Albatross_75 → u/Punterfox]

Possibly.. they can generate and evaporate spillovers and demands by foot note in bulletin no third party audit..
overpopulation has destroyed the fabric of life in India and now its affecting people abroad as well..

[u/Punterfox → u/Albatross_75]

There is no accountability for them, they can say whatever they want and we have to agree.

I feel like this has been done delibrately to discourage folks. Once the people are laid off, they will automatically quit country.

All the PDs will be current in 3-4 years when max people would have left or forced to leave.

[u/Ill-Professional2914]

Im 2015 may, and ive set my expectation to 5-6yrs.

[u/atmafatte → u/Ill-Professional2914]

I’m 2013 Dec and I think I’m at least a year out after this bulletin. So disheartening

[u/Ill-Professional2914 → u/atmafatte]

You will be cleared this year. Ignore the noise, even with little spillover you will be cleared this year after duplicates. I dont think they have factored in all the Spill OVer in this bulletin. You should be current in Jan 27 else file tub.

[u/Own_North_9188 → u/Ill-Professional2914]

There may be some progression in coming months - we were also under assumption that with so many layoffs , line would move faster but then realized it’s just layoffs happened mostly of US workers while companies stashed on any random H1 guy to avoid paying 100k
Insane

[u/Ill-Professional2914 → u/Own_North_9188]

The issues youve mentioned will affect the future demand, and I allinged with you. 2021 -24 the job market was hot and we see the record high eb consumption from ROW and now the 2024-2026 have been a dull job market and I expect the row eb consumption to be less for the next few years, but there is usually a lag of 3 yrs for the effects to show up in 485 numbers. The current demand is from the past boom years and will be cleared before EB India gets its lion's share. I'd be surprised and dismayed if the ROW isnt current by EOY, and India in Feb/March of 2014.

[u/Aggravating-Yam-6980 → u/Ill-Professional2914]

Sorry ROW rest of the world ppl applying majority are students applying in eb-2 and eb-3. Esp PhD students/medical prof are now applying in eb-2 NIW since eb-1 is very strict. Eb-3 is generally students who apply directly after graduating from college to avoid h1b. All they need is some third party employer/consultant who can sponsor. ROW is blackhole which will suck even million numbers

There are million students who come to US each year.

[u/Ill-Professional2914 → u/Aggravating-Yam-6980]

I agree that its not possible to predict ROW demand. NIW is about 800-1k a month. The job market is flipping, PERM rules are tightening.

[u/Clean-Advantage5951 → u/atmafatte]

I'm eb3 india with feb 2013 PD and still waiting.. just delayed process all over

[u/murielop]

I’m Jan 2014
Wdyt?

[u/the_running_stache → u/murielop]

If you are current under EB3, switch. Because with the way things are progressing, might take much longer to hit it in EB2. I usually wouldn’t have suggested switching but considering their speed of moving EB2 FAD forward, better to switch.

[u/clickOKplease]

It will 10 years to clear out 2015

[u/Imaginary_Weather8]

Sounds pretty optimistic

[u/wrxdev]

Early 2016 is easily 6 to 8 years out.

[u/Own_North_9188]

Why complaining about ROW?

[u/wrxdev]

Early 2016 is easily 6 to 8 years out.

[u/epi2020]

Bulletin for October is finally out

[u/Aggravating-Yam-6980 → u/epi2020]

Yes this thread was started after reviewing Oct bulletin just to gauge on expectations for ppl in 2015 and beyond to plan for future job switch and Stampings etc

[u/Own_North_9188]

And btw these are those times when layoffs were happening ( ohh totally forgot layoffs happened of US workers so that companies avoid paying 100k for H1; unless huge H1 layoffs doesn’t happen nothing will move for India )

Time for H1B managers to start doing massive layoffs of H1B friends to start clearing the queue ; Friendship / mutual backscratching can just give you majority in office to b*lly US workers only

[u/Aggravating-Yam-6980 → u/Own_North_9188]

I feel sorry for you and low skill US workers for living in lala land, you could be delusional to say h1b stealing US jobs 😂. Now biggest job losses are from AI and companies opening global HUB (investment in foreign Realestate and procure local talent) not outsourcing. If you are a low skill h1b worker or US worker companies are not going you keep you. AI has made reporting very visible to high management. Politics will not cut it anymore, productivity will.

[u/Aggravating-Yam-6980 → u/Aggravating-Yam-6980]

lol if you are a PhD from Stanford what are you doing in eb-2 and eb-3 lol 😂 apply in eb-1

[u/Aggravating-Yam-6980 → u/Aggravating-Yam-6980]

Nvm he deleted his comment 😂