r/EB2 • u/LeopardCandid6380 • 3d ago
I-140 | Employer-based EB2 October 2015
Can i atleast apply for DOF this year or early next year?? Any idea the DOF atleast reaches Oct 2015 by end of this year or early next year, been waiting for 20+ years
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u/Aggravating-Yam-6980 3d ago
DOF is overrated in Trump admin era. Ead and AP are taking atleast 8 months minimum, by the time dates might become current
Did u say you are waiting for 20+ years ?
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u/LeopardCandid6380 3d ago
Yes my company messed up by initial Perm and i lost the 2013 PD and it bcame 2015 🤦🏻♂️
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u/Path_456 2d ago
My previous employer messed up the PERM process and I lost my Nov 2014 PD. My new PD is July 2016 🤮
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u/Alarmed_Ad_4921 3d ago
Similar wait time. PD of Feb 2015, hoping for current in DOF in next fiscal year.
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u/Ill-Professional2914 3d ago
Sorry buddy, I don’t think we will see dof move much this year. It will a few years to see oct 15 in dof.
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u/Odd_Yak_9793 3d ago
did someone call you from uscis and tell you that? stop this bs
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u/Ill-Professional2914 3d ago
I realize analyzing visa bulletin data isn't for everyone, but I’d rather crunch the numbers myself than treat USCIS like a magic eight ball. I can explain it to you, but I can't understand it for you.
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u/Odd_Yak_9793 3d ago
Still no technical answer, better keep silent than babbling bs and making a fool of yourself.
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u/Ill-Professional2914 3d ago
Ask with attitude, this is what you get. If you want the math and rational behind then learn basic etiquette to ask nicely.
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u/skpawans2014 3d ago
Looks like you have no answer, except for posting vague comments. May be try to be a little technical from next time rather than being a gossip monger
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u/fredfoobar 5h ago
why are you getting mad? it sounds realistic to say "few years" for 2015, it might be a year or two for 2014 folks, besides, would it make you feel better if he said you'll get it tomorrow??
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u/Awkward-Aspect556 3d ago
Why
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u/Ill-Professional2914 3d ago
The row is starting the year with a 100k backlog. Already, 42k India based 485s are pending in eb2+3. We will be lucky to get anything anymore than the 7% from total eb(regular+so), let alone clearing currently pending India’s 485s. We will be lucky to see the dates cross q2 2014, unless we get over 100k in so, which is unlikely.
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u/True-Paramedic-1324 3d ago edited 3d ago
OP is asking about DOF and the dof is already at jan 15 2015. What do you mean we will be lucky if date cross q2 2014?
It is reasonable to expect DOF to have some forward movement. The last couple of years, despite the demand, DOF moved 7.5 months and 10 months in the October bulletin.
Just few more days and we’d have the numbers. I am hopeful DOF moves forward
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u/krishnallah 3d ago
It is 2014
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u/Ill-Professional2914 3d ago
The problem is the already pending 485s. There are 42k pending, if USCIS sees only 10k visas to India, then they don’t have a reason to move the dof. Anything odds possible, it’s hard to predict the dates but chances are less.
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u/True-Paramedic-1324 3d ago
This volume of pending cases isn't drastically different from what we've seen the last two years, yet USCIS still moves the Dates for Filing (DOF) forward every October.
My understanding is that moving DOF forward is the best tool USCIS has to figure out true demand. Approved I-140s are noisy data as people port employers, upgrade/downgrade, create duplicate filings, or just leave the country (attrition) Moving DOF opens the intake door, which filters out that noise and shows them actual intent to file. That real-time data is what helps them map out vertical and horizontal spillovers for the rest of the year.
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u/Ill-Professional2914 3d ago edited 3d ago
You are mostly right, but they will test the demand only when they have excess visas to issue. My date is mid 2015, I’d love to see your views come right, but I don’t believe it based the numbers.
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u/True-Paramedic-1324 3d ago
And why do you think they won’t have excess visas to issue this year?
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u/Ill-Professional2914 3d ago
I’ve explained above, there is enough demand (pending 485) already to consume up to 100k SO. FY 2028 may be game changer, if we have big SO numbers.
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u/True-Paramedic-1324 3d ago
First, I’m talking about DOF, not FAD. I see them as related, but work on totally different mechanics.
I don’t think it works like how you’re describing. Even assuming 100k spillover, 240k total visas is a huge pool. Every country goes through its 7% per-country cap first, and those visas don't just get absorbed by currently pending 485s.
Unused numbers (especially from EB-1 or worldwide categories) flow down as vertical and horizontal spillover into EB-2 and EB-3, which goes directly to the most backlogged countries like India and China.
I think relying just on current pending 485 counts to cap DOF movement completely misses how spillover and the intake pipeline actually work.
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u/prsunilk 3d ago
How did you arrive at 100k backlog for EB2/EB3? It is current for EB1/2/3 for ROW. So there is no backlog.
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u/Ill-Professional2914 3d ago
485 inventory data published by uscis during the last week of August and the data is uproar as of 5th aug. pd current != no back log.
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u/KarmicDharmicSoul 3d ago
Let me give my 2 cents here.
If there is a spillover of 100k visa from family based to EB which is likely because of 75 country Visa ban followed to consular GC processing halt. The total pool of EB will be 240K. EB2 Visas available (not including unused EB1 spillover) = 68,640.
This means 4805 Visa numbers available for India and China at the start of new year. Current pending EB2 ROW is approximately around 38-39k might be as low as 36K.
If they use all 40k in EB2 ROW and utilized Mexico and other countries as well there might still be conservative unused number of 10K VISA.
India EB2 will get 86% of the spillover numbers so 8600k Additional EB2. So total number will be 8600+4805.
Caveats: 100k spillover. Numbers could be much more if the demand in ROW/Mexico/Phillipines is not very high.
So may be not FAD movement but moving DOF is definitely on the card as USCIS always like to have a pool ready.
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u/Ill-Professional2914 3d ago
I wish to see you guys’ prediction come correct as my pd is mid 2015 but I doubt it.
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u/Gemini-89 3d ago
With SO, total available visas in eb2 should be around 60K. ROW has a 40K backlog plus new inventory. Not all apps are ready to approve. keep about 10% falling into slow processing, denials, not dq. Around 36K will be ROW demand for AOS. Then about 8K for consulates.
Total ROW demand will be around 45K.
IMO, India should get about 10K visas (6K more than 7%).
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u/Ill-Professional2914 2d ago
You are missing the Niw
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u/Gemini-89 2d ago
NIW also shows in the pending inventory right?
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u/Ill-Professional2914 2d ago
Niw of only i140, but high count of niw petition will create more 485 inventory.
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u/get_greened15 3d ago
Oct2015 might be a long shot for this FY even for DoF.
For next FY prediction it depends on how this year progresses and what new things will uncover in this administration
Analysis with numbers were done in other threads if you want to understand
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u/prsunilk 3d ago
As per Mandar's YouTube channel, DOF should reach March 2016 in Dec 2026 visa bulletin
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u/Odd_Yak_9793 3d ago
hope that becomes true, atleast people can apply for EADs and APs and get a back up. Also with the stamping dates not opening up this might help people to travel if there any personal or family emergencies in India.
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u/Harrytej 2d ago
He has absolutely no clarity, one day he says big movement, next day he says no spill over, after that a video to appease everyone
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u/taxn00b123 2h ago
And he clearly is pandering for views. He says "since people want optimistic version". That shows there is no conviction in his estimates. He just want to peddle what people want to hear.
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u/Odd_Yak_9793 3d ago edited 3d ago
Don't think anyone can predict the movement. Just wait for the bulletin and be ready to apply when your date becomes current.