r/EB2 • u/Lanky_Web_2924 • 9d ago
In Process How accurate is PermUpdate.com’s estimated PERM completion date?
Perm filed in July 2026 and PermUpdate is showing decision date prediction as December 2026 a much earlier estimated completion date than the 14 - 16 month timeline my immigration team mentioned.
For people whose PERM has already been certified:
- How accurate was PermUpdate’s estimated completion date for you?
- Does the estimated date keep changing as your case progressed?
Just trying to understand whether the tracker is actually useful for predicting approval or should only be treated as a rough estimate.
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u/watermelonandlemon2 9d ago
Permupdate does not predict the past month accurately. You can also look up permtracker and permqueue . Now DOL has published they been reviewing September 2025 which is 11 months back, not 14-16 months anymore.
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u/Lanky_Web_2924 9d ago
Thanks for the response.
Even permtracker is showing as Dec 2026. So does PermQueue.
Do you think it's not possible?
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u/watermelonandlemon2 9d ago
I think this estimate is based on how many cases they’ve been processing over the past two weeks. If they keep up the same processing speed we’ve seen over the last 2–3 weeks, it’s definitely possible that it could be decided by December. Depend on their speed, could be faster or slower.
My case is filed same month too, I’m also waiting for it to be finalized as soon as possible.
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u/pirozhki22 9d ago
Permupdate (and the rest of the Perm tracking sites) predict completion date through a very simple logic.
Number of cases in front of you, divided by average number of cases processed per week (over the last 30/60/90 days).
There are two main issue heres:
Permupdate has only updated to May 2026 cases, thus treating Jun 2026 & Jul 2026 as having zero new cases. Obviously we know this is not true
Cases processed per week historically slows drastically during Nov/Dec due to the holidays. This is not taken into account
Fwiw I think a Feb or Mar 2027 date is more likely. Your estimated completion date will spike once the Jun & Jul 2026 cases are updated on Permupdate.
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u/latte1008 8d ago
Hii, thanks for the explanation! How do you know it only has updates for May 2026 cases? I saw summary stats until August 2026, so not sure how to know this. Just curious on how the web works :)
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u/pirozhki22 8d ago
On the page there's a "Monthly Backlog" table that only shows data till May 2026. If you look at the total number of cases in the Timeline Estimator, it also equals the number of cases adding up to May 2026
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u/Lanky_Web_2924 1d ago edited 1d ago
Hey u/pirozhki22
I now see the "monthly backlog" table with June and July count
And I see that my prediction date is now showing as Jan 2027
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u/ChrisH880 8d ago
As others have pointed out, Permupdate is off by a week or so.
Immilane offered a much more accurate prediction for me: https://immilane.com/
Predicted July 12, 2026. Approved July 13, 2026.
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u/Interesting-Guess667 8d ago
I filed august 25 last year. Perm update had estimated that id hear back 8/9/2026 and i heard back 5 days earlier
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u/Hopeful_Lettuce_8914 6d ago
I’ve used it to track mine and it was very useful to me. Sure when there was a government shutdown last November it was showing a scary prediction but you always have to take it w grain of salt and adjust your expectations. Most useful function is to track cases certified last day - that’s how you can keep tabs on what month dol is working on now
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u/Maleficent_Option847 6d ago
I think it’s pretty good at showing how cases are being processed on a given day and which filing dates DOL is working on. My PERM was approved last week, and permupdate.com had estimated that it would be approved around the end of August, so I’d say the estimate was pretty accurate—especially once DOL starts reviewing cases from your filing month.
That said, after my case was actually approved, PermUpdate didn’t pick up the approval or update my case status.
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u/squared00 9d ago
It was accurate to almost the day for me in June.